Now we get to the good stuff.
No shade to the incredible slate of bowl games that paved the road to get us to the main event, but we’re officially in a totally different ball game, guys.
Let’s dive into how I’m wagering on every matchup of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
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No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State
The number (9.5) for this game feels way too high. Almost disrespectful if you ask me.
After the first month of the season, Miami and Ohio State were spoken of in the same light. The Hurricanes had beaten Notre Dame and Ohio State had beaten Texas. Miami stumbled a bit and was forgotten about, but the Hurricanes ended the season playing excellent football. They then beat Texas A&M in the first round of the Playoff.
The Buckeyes have been outstanding this season in defense of their title. They finished the regular season 12-0, with many victories by wide margins. They then faced Indiana in the Big Ten title game and took their first loss, 13-10.
But remember, Ohio State had two second-half drives in which it gained 70 and 81 yards without points. So the final score isn’t completely indicative of how that game went.
Nonetheless, the Buckeyes lost the game against the best opponent they’ve faced all season. Ohio State’s next closest game was a 7-point win over the next best team it played (Texas).
So, against the two best teams the Buckeyes faced, they had a loss and a one-score win.
Miami’s offensive and defensive lines are the best combination Ohio State has seen all season. In fact, the Hurricanes are the best team the Buckeyes have faced all year. On the flip side, Ohio State’s defense is the best Miami has faced all season, but this Hurricanes team did just play Texas A&M.
Miami is more tested, having seen Notre Dame in Week 1. The Hurricanes also have tons of NFL talent and have a Playoff game under their belt.
I like Miami to cover.
PICK: Miami (+9.5) to lose by fewer than 9.5 points or win outright
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
This game is going to start off as a low-scoring affair. These are the best defenses either team has faced this season and there’s always a feeling-out period in a game like this.
Oregon has played similar defenses this season in Iowa, Indiana and Penn State, and the Ducks have been slow to score. They put up zero points against Penn State in the first quarter, two against Penn State and seven against Indiana. Their style against better defenses is using the opening script to feel out the defense and then attack later in the game.
This game is also an early body-clock game for the Ducks. It starts at 9 a.m. PT and no matter how much you try to acclimate to the time, it’s still an issue.
This is the best team Texas Tech has played all season (sorry to Utah and BYU fans). The Red Raiders’ offense is going to face speed and strength like it hasn’t seen before. It struggled on offense this year in the red zone as one of the worst units in the country at converting those opportunities into touchdowns.
Lastly, Texas Tech is also off a month of rest and will be rusty. We saw last season how the four teams off a bye struggled to score early.
PICK: First quarter Under 10.5 points scored
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana
If I told you just two years ago that Indiana would be favored by a touchdown over Alabama in a Playoff contest, you’d have thought I was out of my mind.
Well, here we are.
Indiana, at 13-0, is the top seed in college football and a touchdown favorite against Alabama in the Rose Bowl — and I will gladly back Indiana in this game.
The Hoosiers are a force this season because they play a style of football that travels anywhere. They are tough, physical and mistake-free. They are also guided by their unflappable quarterback. Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman this season and whenever his team needed a big play, he made it.
He made it against Oregon, he made it against Ohio State, he made it against Iowa, and he made it against Penn State.
Here’s something else: The Indiana run game was efficient all season, ranking fourth in the sport. In total, Indiana’s offense was seventh in yards per play and third in points per drive.
Alabama’s defense cannot rush the passer with any regularity. Its pass rush ranks in the 100s in pressure rate and PFF has that group ranked 131st in pass rush.
You’re just not going to stop Indiana’s offense if you can’t pressure the Mendoza.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama can’t run the ball and that’s an issue against Indiana’s defense, which is third in points per drive. The Hoosiers were outstanding against both Oregon and Ohio State. Bama is 84th in rushing success rate and 133rd in yards per successful rush.
You just cannot get behind the sticks against Indiana’s defense. The Hoosiers are going to apply pressure and make the picture very confusing for any quarterback.
Can Alabama do enough against Indiana’s offense without being able to run? I doubt it.
PICK: Indiana (-7) to win by more than 7 points
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
I’m going to be boring here and just take the better team in Georgia, which just has to play the game and doesn’t have to worry about any drama around the game.
Ole Miss won its Playoff game last weekend against Tulane in its first contest without former head coach Lane Kiffin, after he infamously bolted for LSU. However, this staff has many members who are now employed by LSU but are still coaching for Ole Miss.
That just doesn’t seem ideal against a coaching staff like Georgia’s.
The Bulldogs’ defense has improved so much since the first meeting against Ole Miss. In that game, Ole Miss scored 35 points through three quarters but didn’t score in the final 15 minutes of the game.
Since that game, Georgia has allowed just 10 points to Texas, nine to Georgia Tech and seven to Alabama (in the SEC title game). On offense, the Dawgs have been good or great depending on the drive. They rank 70th in yards per play but 23rd in points per drive.
So when it’s good, it’s good. When it’s not as good, Georgia doesn’t score.
However, I’m uncertain that the Ole Miss defense will be able to contain the UGA offense, or at least force them into playing like the bad Georgia offense. The Rebels’ defense is 82nd in EPA versus the rush and 75th in havoc rate. The Rebs’ passing defense is far better, but the Bulldogs won’t need that. Just rushing will work.
Again, I’ll take the better team.
PICK: Georgia (-6) to win by more than 6 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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