This is not the industry where, if you don’t have something nice to say, you can say nothing at all. I’ve tried to give a few quarterbacks the benefit of the doubt. I’ve tried to broaden their sample size before criticizing them. But I think it’s time to be honest.
This isn’t to say this week’s stock market will be exclusively critical. There will be celebration, too. But in the case of Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud, who were embroiled in a mid-off this past weekend, the analysis won’t be pretty.
This is the QB Stock Market … which isn’t your typical QB rankings. I’m focused on monitoring the fluctuations of a QB’s performance throughout the season. No one — not even Lamar Jackson — is safe at the top. No one — not even Joe Flacco — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline.
One question holds the most important: What have you done for your team lately?
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The Ravens falling to 1-2 puts a damper on Lamar Jackson’s MVP candidacy. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Love him or hate him, he’s the NFL’s most dangerous maniac.
He doesn’t have Josh Allen’s arm — or even Justin Herbert’s arm. He doesn’t have Allen’s height — or even Caleb Williams’ height. He doesn’t have a whole lot of things.
But all the things he lacks — they add up to maybe the biggest shoulder chip in the NFL.
That brings immeasurable value.
We’ve celebrated the quarterbacks who can create out of structure so much so that we’ve forgotten to value the guys who deliver the ball quickly, who move through their progressions, who hit their receivers on the hands to set them up for YAC and who keep their offense on-schedule.
Mayfield might just be a maniac, one who thinks he’s built to run like Saquon Barkley. But he’s also methodical, intentional and organized. You can see that, even when under pressure. With 90 seconds left and the Bucs trailing the Jets by one point this past Sunday, Mayfield saw an opportunity for a chunk play. But before he took that opportunity, he got his protections set, tweaking his line and his running back alignment to make sure he could deliver a strike. And a strike, he delivered.
There were some major missed opportunities in the fourth quarter, including on a third-and-16 that he could’ve converted on an overthrow to receiver Ryan Miller and another overthrow downfield (later in the fourth) to receiver Ty Johnson that would’ve gone for a touchdown. But Mayfield made up for those mistakes with a game-winning, fourth-quarter drive — again.
Does anyone still want to argue that the Eagles can’t win when Hurts throws a lot?
At halftime, the Eagles were down 19-7 and he had 17 passing yards. He was 4 of 8. The team passing yards were technically minus-1. You could probably see the performance as supporting evidence for any take you wanted:
Hurts stinks!
No, Hurts just needs to throw it more!
But the second half proved telling. Hurts and A.J. Brown went to work. They began to beat up the Rams’ pass defense — which, by the way, is an extremely impressive unit. By the end of the game, Hurts dug his team out of its hole and provided a late lead. He was 21 of 32 for 226 yards and three passing touchdowns with 40 more rushing yards and a rushing TD.
He was, in a word, sensational.
Now, he needed some heroics from his teammates. The Rams nearly retook the lead, but the Eagles blocked a field goal at the buzzer and returned it for a touchdown to seal the win. That had nothing to do with Hurts.
But who got Philly the lead? And how did he do it?
Hurts. With his arm.
Let’s retire the narrative that Hurts isn’t an elite quarterback. Just because he isn’t lighting up defenses every week doesn’t mean he’s not one of the league’s best.
Matthew Stafford has been mostly excellent this season, but a bad second half in Week 3 prevented the Rams from putting the Eagles away. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Sam Darnold has quietly gotten off to a great start in Seattle. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Williams finally looked like Jared Goff, which is to say that Williams didn’t get in the way of his coach’s system. And his defense did just enough.
There were signs of progress for those who studied last week’s film carefully. But those signs came in a total blowout. How seriously were we to take the progress if the production mostly came in garbage time?
Well, the arrow continued to point up in Week 3 for Williams. I still don’t think he was consistent enough. He’s still missing easy throws. But I’ll hand it to him: Williams played one heck of a game.
This was the Bears’ plan all along. This is what Ben Johnson wanted his team to look like.
Now, I don’t think it’ll look like this every week. Their offense beat up on a bad Dallas defense. The Chicago defense was fortunate that CeeDee Lamb exited early, in turn limiting Dak Prescott’s effectiveness and the entire Dallas offense.
If not for all that, there would’ve been more pressure on Williams.
But when things are right, this is what his upside looks like. The Bears QB could someday lead one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. Someday. Maybe.
Drake Maye has thrown the ball perhaps better than any of his second-year QB peers, but his turnovers have proven costly. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Lawrence is a reminder of why it’s actually a compliment to call a QB a “game manager.”
Because after five years in the league, Lawrence isn’t one.
He is 25 years old now, and he’s in an offense that seems to be setting him up for success — and perhaps even consistency. The Jaguars are emphasizing the run under coach Liam Coen. Travis Etienne Jr. and Bhayshul Tuten look outstanding. The defense looks fast and competitive, much more than I expected.
And yet the QB underwhelms.
He’s struggling to get the most out of Travis Hunter, which is — to some degree — explainable because of the ground game and because of Brian Thomas Jr. But … yeah, what about BTJ? He has bizarrely been a nonfactor this year, after looking like an elite receiver last year as a rookie.
It’s fair to wonder whether this might be the beginning of the end for Lawrence in Jacksonville. I’m not saying he’s done. But maybe he needs a change of scenery, a wake-up call, a jump-start to his stagnated development.
I don’t know what to tell you.
If last year was a sophomore slump, what is this?
And I feel totally comfortable admitting that I’m at a loss with Stroud, because there are plenty of smart football minds who are also at a loss. Coach DeMeco Ryans can’t figure it out. Offensive coordinator Nick Caley can’t figure it out. Former offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik couldn’t figure it out.
The problem has a lot to do with the offensive line. But it also has to do — in my opinion — with the lack of a WR2. And last but not least, there’s something happening (or not happening) with Stroud’s processing. Which is strange. Because in Year 1, we saw a rookie who was unfazed by the mental rigors of the NFL and had all the answers.
Russell Wilson’s days as the Giants’ starting quarterback could be over, with the team set to start rookie Jaxson Dart in Week 4. (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
I’m not sure yet what Michael Penix can be, but I’m sure he’s not a great (or even a good) thrower against pressure. On eight snaps with pressure, he was 2 of 8 for 26 yards with a -28.8 completion percentage over expected. He’s not a mobile guy. His gunpowder arm and his deep ball were supposed to be his crowning skill, around which the Falcons might build their offense.
Coming out of college, he looked like Tua Tagovailoa — but with more competence in the deep third. And because they’re both pocket-operating lefties, there are aesthetic similarities for Penix. But at this point, Penix doesn’t have the supporting cast that Tua has. Nor is Penix avoiding situational mistakes.
Prime example: Against the Panthers, he checked down to tight end Charlie Woerner for a 5-yard loss behind the line of scrimmage on second-and-8 to put the offense in an even worse situation for third down — rather than just throwing the ball away. But it got worse. The Falcons failed to complete the third down and then attempted a field goal. Atlanta narrowly missed. Did that careless checkdown cost the Falcons three points?
There were multiple plays where Penix’s receivers let him down. Later in the game, Penix threw to a spot on the field where no one was on third down. He and his receiver weren’t seeing the field the same way. (Just looking at the spacing on the play, I’d bet it was on the receiver.)
There are so many things for a QB to consider with every dropback. Penix looks outmatched and overwhelmed.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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