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Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Wise weekly wagers … what would an NFL bettor want worse?
Alliteration aside, the NFL season is underway, meaning bettors across the nation are ready to dole out some cash on a weekly basis.
That’s where I come in.
Each week, I will deliver my favorite bet from each and every game on the NFL schedule.
Welcome to Will’s Wagers.
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(All times ET)
THURSDAY, SEPT. 18
DOLPHINS @ BILLS (8:15 p.m., Prime Video)
Tua Tagavailoa Over 34.5 pass attempts
The lack of a run game for the Dolphins and the likely game state of the Bills leading — and maybe leading big — should mean lots of throwing for the Dolphins as they try to play catch up.
SUNDAY, SEPT. 21
PACKERS @ BROWNS (1:00 p.m., FOX)
Browns +8
I know the Packers are 2-0 and have looked unbeatable. Meanwhile, the Browns are 0-2. But, the Browns’ record is deceiving, as they held the Bengals to just seven second-half yards in Week 1. Then, in Week 2, they held the high-powered Ravens to just 14 first downs and 240 total yards. I think this Browns D keeps this one close.
JETS @ BUCCANEERS (1:00 p.m., FOX)
Under 44.5 points scored
The Bucs are off to a 2-0 start but have a cluster of injuries to their offensive line, with three potential starters out for this game. The Jets have an injury concern of their own, with quarterback Justin Fields sidelined with a concussion. Veteran Tyrod Taylor will start in his place. He will likely serve as more of a game manager, and points might be hard to come by.
COLTS @ TITANS (1:00 p.m., CBS)
Titans +4.5
The Colts are a great story at 2-0, but with home-field advantage typically worth 1.5 points, this line is saying these teams are six points apart. That seems a bit high. The Titans are 0-2 but were very competitive against the Broncos and Rams and held second-half leads in both games. The Titans should keep this one close.
RAMS @ EAGLES (1:00 p.m., FOX)
Rams +3.5
The Rams nearly beat last year’s champs in the 2024 playoffs on a snowy January afternoon but fell short, losing by six points. This is another game I expect to be closer than the spread indicates. Despite the 2-0 record, the Eagles haven’t been as impressive as they were last year. They’ve escaped both games so far, thanks in large part to a couple of dropped passes by opponents. The Rams are extremely talented. I like taking the points here.
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FALCONS @ PANTHERS (1:00 p.m., FOX)
Bijan Robinson Over 81.5 rushing yards
The Panthers are getting gashed on the ground so far this season, allowing 141 rushing yards per game after two weeks. Bijan Robinson just ran through a very good Vikings defense, running for over 120 yards in last week’s win. Robinson is looking like a candidate — maybe even a front-runner — for Offensive Player of the Year. Look for him to have another big game on the ground.
STEELERS @ PATRIOTS (1:00 p.m., CBS)
Chris Boswell Over 1.5 made field goals
Boswell has been outstanding for the Steelers, 5-for-5 on field goals and 9-for-9 overall on kicks this season. His last miss was in Week 13 of last year. The accurate and reliable Boswell making multiple field goals is a solid angle until proven otherwise.
RAIDERS @ COMMANDERS (1:00 p.m., FOX)
Under 44.5 points scored
Tough game to handicap with Commanders’ quarterback Jayden Daniels’ status uncertain. But in the four games combined that these teams have played, the under is 4-0, and the Raiders have shown some conservative tendencies. Long, slow drives that end in field goals are great when you bet the Under, something the Raiders displayed well last week in a loss to the Chargers. Tight end Brock Bowers and Daniels are two huge pieces on offense for their respective teams, and both are banged up. Let’s go Under.
BENGALS @ VIKINGS (1:00 p.m., CBS)
Bengals +3
The Vikings have a long list of injuries on both sides of the ball and have looked nothing like the 14-win team from last year in seven of the eight quarters they’ve played so far this season. Their win in Week 1 looks less impressive now because, after beating the Bears, those same Bears turned around and lost 52-21 to the Lions. Jake Browning will start at quarterback for the Bengals and is 5-3 in his last eight appearances — including a 2023 late-season win against the Vikings. I’m betting against the banged-up Vikings laying points.
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TEXANS @ JAGUARS (1:00 p.m., CBS)
Brian Thomas Over 64.5 receiving yards
The story all week has been the drops by Thomas in the Jags’ Week 2 loss to the Bengals and questions about the chemistry between Thomas and quarterback Trevor Lawrence. I think the Jags and Lawrence make it a point of emphasis to get Thomas the ball early and often.
SAINTS @ SEAHAWKS (4:05 p.m., CBS)
Saints team total Under 17.5 points
The Saints have been feisty so far, despite the 0-2 record. They’ve kept each of their first two games very close. Those first two games, however, were at home. Now, young quarterback Spencer Rattler hits the road to face an underrated Seahawks defense, and I expect him to struggle.
BRONCOS @ CHARGERS (4:05 p.m., CBS)
Chargers -2.5
The Chargers have been impressive on both sides of the ball in their 2-0 start and have simply looked better than the Broncos so far. Betting Justin Herbert at 9–1 to win MVP is not the worst idea either. That’s considering his team has a great shot at winning the division and that Allen, Mahomes and Jackson have already won this award. With all this in mind, this might give Herbert a leg up on them due to voter fatigue.
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COWBOYS @ BEARS (4:25 p.m., FOX)
Caleb Williams Over 231.5 passing yards
Bears QB Caleb Williams has not lived up to the hype as the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but this could be a good week to get on track against the Cowboys. Last week, Russell Wilson and the Giants amassed 450 passing yards with three touchdowns in Dallas. Look for Williams to put up some big numbers against a weak Cowboys secondary.
CARDINALS @ 49ERS (4:25 p.m., FOX)
Cardinals +3
This line opened with the Cardinals favored by two points in some spots. There is some hope that 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy will return this week, but he is still nursing what was reported as a multi-week injury. So it’s far from a certainty that we see Purdy return. I’ll take the three points in an important, early-season NFC West showdown.
CHIEFS @ GIANTS (8:20 p.m., NBC)
Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 rushing yards
Mahomes has used his legs way more this season than he usually does and that’s no coincidence. He’s racked up 113 rushing yards over two games, including two rushing touchdowns. That’s a sign that he doesn’t have the same trust in his weapons that he’s had in past years. Ultimately, he feels the need to create more offense on his own. Mahomes running is something that I think continues in Week 3 for the desperate Chiefs.
MONDAY, SEPT. 22
LIONS @ RAVENS (8:15 p.m., ABC/ESPN)
Ravens team total Over 28 points
Nobody has held the Ravens to under 40 points through two weeks this season. I think we get more fireworks from this offense on Monday night. The Lions visited the Ravens in 2023 and were buried 38-6. Lamar Jackson putting up 30 points or more in this one is a good bet.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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