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January Nymex pure fuel (NGF26) on Friday closed up +0.124 (+2.92%),
January nat-gas on Friday rallied pretty sharply as early-January forecasts turned colder. Forecasts shifted colder for December 31 to January 4 throughout the North and West, in accordance with Atmospheric G2.
The EIA introduced that this week’s stock report has been rescheduled from December 24 to December 29 at Midday (ET) because of the Christmas vacation. The market consensus is for a decline of -169 bcf, which might be a bigger drop than the 5-year common for the week of -110.
Greater US nat-gas manufacturing is bearish for costs. The EIA on December 9 raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas manufacturing to 107.74 bcf/day from its November estimate of 107.70 bcf/day. US nat-gas manufacturing is at present close to a document excessive, with energetic US nat-gas rigs lately posting a 2-year excessive.
US (lower-48) dry fuel manufacturing on Friday was 113.2 bcf/day (+7.9% y/y), in accordance with BNEF. Decrease-48 state fuel demand on Friday was 87.5 bcf/day (-3.2% y/y), in accordance with BNEF. Estimated LNG web flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday had been 19.1 bcf/day (unch w/w), in accordance with BNEF.
As a supportive issue for fuel costs, the Edison Electrical Institute reported on December 10 that US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended December 6 rose +2.3% y/y to 85,330 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending December 6 rose +2.84% y/y to 4,291,665 GWh.
Final Thursday’s weekly EIA report was barely bearish for nat-gas costs, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended December 12 fell by -167 bcf, a smaller draw than the market consensus of -176 bcf however bigger than the 5-year weekly common of -96 bcf. As of December 12, nat-gas inventories had been down -1.2% y/y and had been +0.9% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling satisfactory nat-gas provides. As of December 17, fuel storage in Europe was 68% full, in comparison with the 5-year seasonal common of 78% full for this time of 12 months.
Baker Hughes reported Tuesday that the variety of energetic US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending December 26 remained unchanged at 127, slightly below the two.25-year excessive of 130 set on November 28. Up to now 12 months, the variety of fuel rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
On the date of publication, Wealthy Asplund didn’t have (both immediately or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All data and information on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially revealed on Barchart.com
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