The Bank of Korea plans to release its revised economic outlook on December 26, projecting this year’s real GDP growth rate at an upward adjustment from the prior 1.8% baseline. Economic experts forecast the central bank will outline a range of 1.9% to 2.1% for overall growth.
Expert Consensus on Forecast Adjustment
A recent survey of leading economists indicates the Bank of Korea will refine its growth projection, with adjustments ranging from a modest 0.1 percentage point to 0.3 percentage points higher. The primary factor influencing this outlook centers on export performance.
Park Sung-hyun, chief researcher at iM Securities, noted, “Exports surged due to the semiconductor super cycle, alongside sharp increases in corporate profits.”
Record Semiconductor Sales Amid Slowdown Fears
Samsung Electronics achieved record annual sales of 333.6059 trillion won last year, even as a broader slowdown looms. The company’s operating profit reached 32.5305 trillion won, marking a 386.6% surge from the previous year’s 6.6853 trillion won.
SK Hynix posted operating profit of 28.2892 trillion won, up 280.2% from 7.4405 trillion won a year earlier.
Kim Sung-soo, head researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities, stated, “Accounting for the current semiconductor cycle and similar factors, the growth forecast carries a strong likelihood of upward revision.”
Policy Meeting Signals and Global Benchmarks
During its January 15 monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Korea indicated the year’s growth would align with its November projection of 1.8%. Officials highlighted risks from an anticipated semiconductor slowdown, sluggish growth in major economies, and potential shifts tied to U.S. election outcomes.
The projected 1.9% rate matches estimates from the Korea Development Institute (KDI) and International Monetary Fund (IMF). A 2% figure aligns with government projections, while the OECD forecasts 2.2% and major investment banks average 2.1%.
U.S. Policy Risks Loom Large
Markets await the Bank of Korea’s first-quarter GDP data and U.S. presidential election results for further clarity. President-elect Donald Trump warned on December 21 of imposing 15% tariffs on imports from all countries in retaliation for unfavorable trade deals, labeling such actions as “anti-American sentiments.”
