Sydney Sweeney could have nice denims, however she isn’t having a fantastic month. Her newest film, Tony Tost’s neo-Western “Americana,” had the form of opening weekend on the field workplace that makes informal observers suppose one thing is critically mistaken.
The movie made simply an estimated $500,000 in its opening weekend through Lionsgate, good for nineteenth place on the week amongst home releases. With the studio opening the movie considerably large on over 1,100 screens nationwide (that’s a per-screen common of $436), in addition to spending $3 million to accumulate it out of SXSW again in 2023, that’s what we within the enterprise usually name “not good.”
However Lionsgate isn’t dropping sleep (even when Sweeney remains to be rethinking the advert campaigns she chooses). In actual fact, the studio believes “Americana” will flip a straightforward revenue when all is claimed and completed.
We’ve heard the studio spin earlier than: field workplace opening weekend isn’t what it was once, and these motion pictures are designed to show a revenue whereas trying on the lengthy sport of placing it on PVOD and licensing it to a streamer. That’s sometimes the logic we hear once we’re being satisfied that audiences don’t have superhero fatigue.
Whereas there wasn’t sufficient spin on the planet to avoid wasting Lionsgate’s “Borderlands,” Lionsgate is in a distinct boat in comparison with different main studios. Regardless of Sweeney’s star energy, “Americana” shouldn’t be in the identical class as one of many studio’s main tentpoles, although it does have one other a type of starring Sweeney, “The Housemaid,” popping out this Christmas, so we may very well be having a distinct dialog then.
A part of what makes Lionsgate distinctive to different studios is that, along with the 2 or three franchise motion pictures and a dozen or so different releases, Lionsgate additionally places out as many as 30 to 40 small motion pictures per yr with restricted advertising and marketing and a extra focused push underneath its Lionsgate Premiere Releasing banner. A few of these go direct-to-streaming, like an upcoming Netflix movie referred to as “Warfare Machine,” and others open in theaters and on digital day-and-date or after a 17-day theatrical window.
A number of the extra profitable latest examples are “Sisu” or “Fall,” which every made $7.2 million home. There are a lot of extra you most likely haven’t heard of.
“Americana” matches into that enterprise mannequin, and as IndieWire has discovered, as many as 95 p.c of these motion pictures do flip a revenue after they’ve run their course in theaters, PVOD, and SVOD. Within the case of this movie, Lionsgate acquired the film for $3 million, but it surely additionally licensed “Americana” internationally, so the studio is barely holding the bag for about half of that, or within the ballpark of $1.5 million. The movie’s advertising and marketing — a few of it theatrical trailers, most of it digital, or getting Sweeney to publish on her Instagram subsequent to pictures of her in head-to-toe denim — tacks on about one other $3 million.
Time for some again of the serviette math: The studio expects the film, from this level, to leg out to about $1.5 million in theaters (don’t overlook exhibitors take half of that field workplace haul), but it surely additionally expects to soak up a number of million from dwelling leisure gross sales, Pay-1 licensing to a streamer like Starz (now spun off from Lionsgate) or Netflix, or worldwide home windows.
Placing it on as many as 1,100 screens even helps it create consciousness down the highway. And if a film like this sooner or later pops on Netflix’s High 10, it might even get a small monetary enhance, but it surely’s unclear what Lionsgate’s deal is in that regard. By the point all that’s stated and completed (at any time when that’s), “Americana” may very well be taking a look at a revenue of about $1.5 million, which seems was roughly by design.
However let’s not confuse “Americana” for being a hit. In an excellent world, “Americana” would have a remaining field workplace at the least twice of what it’s now anticipated to succeed in, and so would the revenue. Like “Sisu,” which additionally opened wider and bought a heftier advertising and marketing push, the studio believed “Americana” had just a little upside to it, what with the Sweeney of all of it. And in contrast to most of their titles that get a 17-day window, “Americana” will probably be in theaters solely for 30 days.
It’s additionally absolutely not what the movie’s financiers, Bron, had in thoughts when “Americana” was initially produced for round $9 million. A part of the explanation the movie has sat on the shelf for 2 years because it first opened at SXSW in 2023 is as a result of Bron later that yr declared chapter. Frankly, it’s lucky this film was launched in any respect.
However Lionsgate is fairly good at getting ancillary enterprise from dwelling leisure and digital releases, tending to over index in comparison with what different studios can usher in at dwelling. You are inclined to see motion motion pictures and style motion pictures do particularly effectively after its theatrical run, an enormous a part of the explanation why Lionsgate retains making motion pictures with Jason Statham or Gerard Butler.
However doing this one-for-you/one-for-them mannequin additionally retains Lionsgate in good graces with somebody like Sweeney after they need to work along with her once more for “The Housemaid.” And American Eagle controversy be damned, one underwhelming field workplace opening isn’t going to make Sweeney any much less of a bankable star.
