Who is in the mix for MLB’s top three individual awards — MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year – and should we expect any surprises?
The Mariners have a slugging catcher who is making headlines and history thats fueling an intense MVP debate. The Dodgers’ two-way talent continues to triumph. And the Athletics have a rookie that’s having a historic debut.
With only a few weeks left in the regular season, we take stock of the award races.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP
Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
It seems like all we’ve heard around baseball since the second half of the season is the AL MVP debate. Let’s not make this complicated. It comes down to the numbers. Judge has a 192 wRC+ and 7.9 fWAR; Raleigh has about a 158 wRC+ and 7.3 fWAR. Judge is slashing .321/.442/.660 with 44 homers; Raleigh is at roughly .240/.349/.574 with 53 homers. I’m not convinced that everything Raleigh does as a switch-hitting catcher is enough to bridge the gap in Judge’s rate stats and on-base/slugging advantage — roughly an 86-point difference in slugging — so this one still belongs to Judge. – Deesha Thosar
Aaron Judge is eyeing his third AL MVP. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images)
MVP
Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
My heart says Cal Raleigh, but my head says Judge, who holds the advantage over not only Raleigh but every qualified MLB hitter in every slash line category. Judge shouldn’t be penalized just because this season isn’t quite as ridiculous as last year, which was one of the greatest seasons from a right-handed hitter ever. His OPS is more than 150 points better than the next closest AL competitor, he has reached base safely in 118 of his 133 games, and he had a terrific defensive season before the elbow injury. We shouldn’t lose sight of how ridiculous he has been. – Rowan Kavner
Cy Young
Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
No question here. Skubal leads the American League in both ERA and WHIP, but the most miraculous part of his season is that he has both the highest strikeout rate and the lowest walk rate among all qualified AL starters. His chase rate is up more than 3% from last year, when he was the unanimous AL Cy Young Award winner, yet he’s managing to get that swing and miss while also allowing fewer free passes. Hunter Brown and Garrett Crochet might end up getting some votes, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Skubal win the award unanimously again. – Thosar
The biggest question for Tarik Skubal’s Cy Young case could be whether he wins ia unanimously again. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Man, a couple of weeks ago I would’ve gone with Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet here — and he remains a contender for the award. But Crochet coughed up seven earned runs, including four home runs, against Cleveland in his first start of the month. A disastrous outing like that, this late into the season, resulted in a significant decrease in his chances of winning the Cy Young. Skubal is just too good and too consistent for there to be any other answer right now. The southpaw leads the AL in ERA (2.10), strikeouts per nine innings (11.1), and walk rate (4.1%), and he remains in line to win back-to-back Cy Young awards for the first time since Jacob deGrom (2018-19). – Kavner
Rookie of the Year
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics
This one isn’t close. Kurtz is the runaway candidate to win AL ROY honors, particularly after his ridiculous performance in July. The 22-year-old rookie batted .395/.480/.953 with 11 home runs, 13 walks, 13 doubles and 27 RBI in 23 games that month. If you weren’t already paying attention to him, Kurtz made sure everyone knew his name after becoming the first rookie to record a four-homer game. He has barely slowed down since then, putting up a 1.008 OPS in August, and the injury to Red Sox rookie Roman Anthony only increased Kurtz’s odds of winning the award (not that he needed that boost). – Thosar
The A’s have a solid set of young talent, headlined by rookie first baseman Nick Kurtz. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
Nick Kurtz, 1B Athletics
For most of the first half, we expected an A’s player to run away with the Rookie of the Year award. That’ll still be the case, it’s just going to be a different one than we initially expected. Kurtz not only leads all qualified rookies in home runs, runs, RBI, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS, he also has the highest OPS since the All-Star break of any MLB player with at least 100 at-bats in the second half. Among all players with at least 400 plate appearances this season, only Aaron Judge has a higher OPS than Kurtz. – Kavner
NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP
Shohei Ohtani, DH/RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
If Ohtani were only hitting like last season, this might be a close race to follow. Juan Soto leads the NL in on-base percentage and walks. Kyle Schwarber leads the NL in homers and RBI. Trea Turner leads the NL in hits and batting average. Shohei Ohtani leads in runs (by a wide margin), slugging and OPS and ranks second in homers. Ohtani would still probably be the frontrunner for his offense alone, but now that he also happens to pitch, too — and has the fourth-highest strikeout rate among NL starters who’ve thrown at least 30 innings — his two-way talents should have him earning his fourth MVP trophy and second straight since becoming a Dodger. – Kavner
Shohei Ohtani is a threat both at the plate and on the mound. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)
MVP
Shohei Ohtani, DH/RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
The three-peat is calling Ohtani’s name. Coming off MLB’s first ever 50/50 season, he leads the NL in wRC+ (169) and runs scored (127) and trails only Kyle Schwarber in home runs with 48. Oh, and of course he’s pitching dominantly. He has allowed one run or less in nine of his 12 starts this season. He has recorded 49 strikeouts in 36 innings pitched. Were it not for his late start on the mound and the workload limitations coming off his second-career elbow surgery, Ohtani would be a contender for the NL Cy Young award. The Japanese megastar is on his way to joining Barry Bonds as the only players with more than three MVP awards. – Thosar
Cy Young
Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
He’s doing it in a slightly different manner, featuring more of his sweeper and changeup, but it’s remarkable how similar his season totals are to last year. He had a 1.96 ERA last year; he has a 1.98 ERA this year. He had a 0.95 WHIP last year; he has a 0.94 WHIP this year. Now, Skenes is sustaining this production over a full season, putting him on pace to be the first qualified starter since Justin Verlander in 2022 to record an ERA under 2.00. No other qualified NL starter has an ERA under 2.50. Barring something shocking, this is the clear Cy Young winner. – Thosar
Even with the Pirates out of the playoff picture, Paul Skenes continues to impress. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)
Cy Young
Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
With less than three weeks left in the regular season, Skenes has an incredible 1.98 ERA and that leads all qualified pitchers this season. His elite 0.94 WHIP is tied with Zack Wheeler for the best mark in the NL, and he’s coming off a spectacular outing against the Dodgers, in which he allowed just two hits and one walk over six scoreless innings. The run support isn’t always there, but Skenes has still racked up just as many wins (10) this season as Jacob deGrom did in his 2018 Cy Young season. With Wheeler’s season over, the path is clear for Skenes to become the first Pirates pitcher to win the Cy Young since Doug Drabek in 1990. – Kavner
Rookie of the Year
Isaac Collins, LF, Milwaukee Brewers
Collins shines when the spotlight is on him, routinely coming through in the clutch for the Brew Crew. The rookie has the third-best batting average (.315), OPS (.878), and wRC+ (142) on the team with runners in scoring position. Collins adds the most value to his club among all NL rookies, boasting a 2.8 fWAR and, in recent days, batting second in the lineup. Of note, the Brewers have a 65-25 record when Collins starts, and a 74-45 record when he appears in a game. Overall, the 28-year-old is batting .275 with a .805 OPS, nine home runs, 54 RBI and 50 walks in 119 games. – Kavner
The NL rookie race could come down to two standout players on rival Central teams. (Getty)
Rookie of the Year
Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs
We could use a little variety in this exercise, and outside of AL MVP this looks like the only race that will come down to the wire. Isaac Collins or Drake Baldwin could very well earn this award, but I think what Horton has done over the last two months is enough to give him the edge right now. He has a 1.23 ERA over his last 11 starts, giving him the lowest ERA in MLB of any pitcher who has thrown at least 50 innings in that span, and ranks seventh in the NL in ERA among all starters who’ve thrown at least 100 innings this year. That’s elite production for a Cubs team that needed another arm to step up in the rotation. – Thosar
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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