Eleven Democrats are vying to unseat Rep. Darrell Issa, a San Diego Republican, after California’s redistricting measure turned his reliably pink district right into a barely blue one which will likely be a key swing race in subsequent 12 months’s midterm elections.
Rep. Mike Levin, a San Clemente Democrat, can breathe simpler, as Proposition 50 carves out new boundaries that make his swing district extra safely Democratic.
The new voting map displays California’s bid to offset Texas’ effort to safe management of the Home by including 5 Republican seats in November. California voters accredited the redistricting plan proposed in Proposition 50 by practically 20 factors in a particular election this month.
Each redistricting efforts are embroiled in litigation. On Tuesday a federal court docket blocked Texas from utilizing its new maps, discovering that they might hurt Black and Latino voters in that state. Final week the U.S. Division of Justice sued to overturn California’s maps, arguing that they unlawfully thought-about Latino voters within the new districts.
If California’s redistricting plan withstands that problem, the brand new voting map may assist Democrats flip the lone Republican seat in San Diego. The forty eighth Congressional District, represented by Issa, will swap from a 12-point Republican benefit to a 4-point Democratic lead, based mostly on voter registration.
A crowd of Democrats
The extra favorable odds have drawn a large discipline of challengers, together with Issa’s former opponent, Ammar Campa-Najjar, who misplaced to Issa in a earlier model of the district in 2020, San Diego Metropolis Council Member Marni von Wilpert, and a number of other contenders from the Coachella Valley.
The passage of the redistricting measure triggered a statewide recreation of musical chairs, setting in movement the chairs in addition to the gamers.
The present forty eighth District covers conservative East County San Diego communities. The brand new district strikes west and north, shedding a lot of that backcountry and including the North County San Diego cities of Escondido, San Marcos and Vista. It additionally consists of ultra-liberal Palm Springs in Riverside County, the place Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by greater than 4 to 1.
These new traces take up half of the present forty first District in Riverside County, represented by longstanding Republican Rep. Ken Calvert. His present district will transfer totally to Los Angeles and Orange County, so Calvert plans to run within the new fortieth District in Riverside and Orange County towards fellow Republican Rep. Younger Kim.
In the meantime, three Coachella Valley Democrats who have been amongst eight challengers towards Calvert for his Riverside County district have now jumped into the race towards Issa. Lawyer Anuj Dixit, college board member Abel Chavez and entrepreneur Brandon Riker all switched gears to marketing campaign for the brand new forty eighth District. One other Palm Springs candidate, Marc Iannarino, a Navy veteran and bartender, threw his hat within the ring. Political observers notice that the Coachella Valley candidates come from a smaller and extra liberal portion of the brand new district.
“These are three candidates who actually know Palm Springs, however they’ve obtained to succeed in out to reasonable, purplish voters and to know who San Diego voters are,” mentioned Dan Rottenstreich, marketing campaign supervisor for von Wilpert.
“This isn’t a deep blue seat,” Rottenstreich mentioned. “That is going to be among the many high 5 closely contested races within the nation.”
Who can win the swing race?
Von Wilpert and Campa-Najjar, the 2 highest profile contenders, every argue they’re the most effective candidate to navigate the slim partisan benefit.
Each have distinguished endorsements. Former Sen. Barbara Boxer, quite a few state and native leaders and the Democratic ladies’s political motion committee Emily’s Listing are supporting von Wilpert. A slate of congress members together with San Diego Reps. Mike Levin, Scott Peters and Sara Jacobs have weighed in for Campa-Najjar.
All of the challengers face a well-established incumbent for a district that — regardless of its partisan shift — will nonetheless be a toss-up.
Von Wilpert, a former prosecutor within the San Diego metropolis lawyer’s workplace, gained her Metropolis Council seat in 2020, operating towards a Republican opponent in a conservative-leaning district, Rottenstreich mentioned.
“With these new traces, CA-48 turns into probably the most aggressive races in America, and a must-win seat to flip the Home,” von Wilpert mentioned in a press release on election day. “I’m the one candidate on this race who’s confirmed I can win powerful elections, flip pink seats blue, and ship outcomes for working households.”
Campa-Najjar, a Navy officer and former Obama marketing campaign official, argues that his expertise operating towards Issa in 2020 positions him to win Democratic and impartial votes within the new district.
“I see it as a rematch between me and Darrell Issa, with 10 different candidates,” he mentioned. “I’m not operating towards them. I’ve nice respect for them, however solely certainly one of us will win.”
Though he misplaced in 2020, Campa-Najjar mentioned he gained a foothold within the conservative district, getting extra votes than anticipated within the majority Republican district.
Can Issa maintain his seat?
Issa has served in Congress for greater than 20 years in several districts. He initially held the forty ninth District — now represented by Levin — from 2001 by means of 2019, and retired when that district turned aggressive. In 2020, he gained his present seat, holding it for the following two phrases after it was redrawn throughout statewide redistricting in 2021.
Issa declined to reply questions from CalMatters, however in a press release he referred to as Proposition 50 an “unprecedented purely partisan marketing campaign that pitted neighbor towards neighbor and divided the state as by no means earlier than.”
Regardless of that, Issa mentioned he plans to run once more: “I’m not going wherever. I’ll proceed to signify the individuals of California — no matter their celebration or the place they reside.”
The final election will replicate voters’ opinions about President Trump; traditionally the president’s celebration normally loses floor within the midterms. Issa, a detailed Trump ally who has supported the president’s insurance policies and nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize, should lean into that file, Kousser mentioned.
“He has to embrace him along with his base and make the case to the center that the Trump presidency has been good for his or her district,” he mentioned.
The crowded discipline of Democrats may thwart some candidates within the main, Kousser mentioned. However it is going to possible profit the celebration within the common election subsequent November, forcing challengers to marketing campaign early and acquire traction with voters.
“Whoever emerges because the Democratic candidate goes to be battle-tested in that district,” he mentioned.
A coastal swing district shifts left
The redistricting measure additionally shored up weak Democratic seats, together with Levin’s forty ninth District. It shifts south, including coastal San Diego communities of La Jolla and Torrey Pines. Now 65% of the present district is in San Diego County; within the new district that climbs to 81%, Levin mentioned.
With that come extra Democratic voters, and much more left-leaning voters. The present district has a 2% margin of Democratic voter registration, which jumps to 4% underneath the brand new traces. However the Democratic benefit jumps to 12% once you evaluate the variety of votes for former Vice President Kamala Harris vs. Trump in final 12 months’s election.
That positions Levin extra securely in his reelection race. He faces Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, together with two different Republicans and a nonpartisan candidate.
“The southern shift of that district makes it extra blue by way of the democratic registrations, and the political leanings of the independents,” mentioned Paul Mitchell, the political information skilled who drew California’s new voting traces. “In order that district for him is a giant enchancment.”
Sullivan Brennan writes for CalMatters.
