Apple CEO Tim Prepare dinner holds up a brand new iPhone 17 Professional throughout an Apple particular occasion at Apple headquarters on September 09, 2025 in Cupertino, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Pictures
Apple is about to ship extra smartphones than Samsung in 2025, the primary time it would have carried out so in 14 years, Counterpoint Analysis stated in a be aware on Wednesday.
Apple will ship round 243 million iPhone items this 12 months versus 235 million shipments from Samsung, Counterpoint informed CNBC. Apple is more likely to find yourself with a 19.4% share of the worldwide smartphone market whereas Samsung’s share might be 18.7%.
Shipments confer with the variety of units distributors ship to retail channels and don’t instantly equal gross sales. Nonetheless, they supply insights into demand and expectations of gross sales from smartphone makers.
Apple’s success is being pushed by its iPhone 17 sequence launched in September, which, in response to Counterpoint, had a “bumper” vacation gross sales season.
Gross sales of the iPhone 17 sequence within the U.S. — together with the iPhone Air — throughout the first 4 weeks after launch was 12% greater than that of the iPhone 16 sequence, excluding the iPhone 16e, the analysis agency stated. In China, a essential marketplace for Apple, gross sales of the iPhone 17 sequence throughout the identical interval had been 18% greater than its predecessor.
“Past the extremely constructive market reception for the iPhone 17 sequence, the important thing driver behind the upgraded cargo outlook lies within the substitute cycle reaching its inflection level. Shoppers who bought smartphones throughout the COVID-19 increase are actually getting into their improve section,” Counterpoint Analysis Senior Analyst Yang Wang, stated within the be aware.
Samsung in the meantime, may face challenges within the low-to-mid tier of the smartphone market from Chinese language gamers, which may hamper the South Korean big’s capability to reclaim the highest spot, Counterpoint stated.
Apple longer-term increase
Counterpoint Analysis forecasts Apple will maintain the highest spot within the international smartphone market by way of 2029. The analysts laid out a number of the reason why.
Firstly, 358 million second-hand iPhones had been offered between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025.
“These customers are additionally more likely to improve to a brand new iPhone within the coming years. These elements will kind a large demand base, which is predicted to maintain iPhone cargo development over the approaching quarters,” Counterpoint Analysis stated.
Apple benefited from a lower-than-expected affect from tariffs given the commerce truce between the U.S. and China. This helped Apple’s broader provide chain and development in sure areas, reminiscent of rising markets. The tech big additionally benefited from a weaker U.S. greenback and a “resilient financial outlook” that boosted shopper confidence.
“With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang stated.
In the meantime, Apple is predicted to launch the entry stage iPhone 17e subsequent 12 months in addition to a foldable smartphone, Counterpoint forecast. The analysis agency stated it expects the previously-announced enhancements to Apple’s digital assistant Siri in addition to a “main iPhone design revamp” in 2027, to additionally underpin Apple’s dominance over the subsequent few years.
“By increasing its lineup throughout a number of value tiers, together with the rising “e” sequence, and potential changes to the Professional and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to seize rising demand from aspirational customers, significantly in rising markets, and to strengthen its presence within the decrease premium phase, which is projected to develop sooner than the general market,” Counterpoint stated.
“Given an rising desire for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility between units and a considerable variety of older fashions inside Apple’s put in base due for renewal, Apple will retain the lead over different smartphone OEMs by way of the tip of the last decade.”
