This is the kind of weekend that separates true contenders from hopeful pretenders in the College Football Playoff chase.
From conference contenders trying to stay alive to fringe hopefuls fighting to avoid elimination, these games will tighten, or blow open, the race for the 12-team field. With résumé-defining wins and season-altering losses on the line, below we’ve identified five games that have massive CFP implications, along with conference title clinching scenarios.
Games with Big CFP Implications
15 USC at 7 Oregon
- Barring highly unlikely losses from Indiana and Ohio State, both of these teams will not have an opportunity to make the Big Ten title game and need a ranked win to bolster their respective CFP résumés. The Trojans have losses to Illinois and Notre Dame, while Oregon’s lone defeat came against the Hoosiers. The Ducks enter Saturday in the field of 12, but that would certainly change with a home loss. USC is 2-7 against opponents ranked in the top 10 of the CFP all-time, and would surely eliminate themselves from the conversation without a win in Eugene.
22 Missouri at 8 Oklahoma
- The Sooners chances at the CFP weren’t looking great after a 23-6 loss to Texas in early October, but since then Brent Venables has gone 3-1 with wins vs No. 14 Tennessee and a massive victory against No. 4 Alabama. Oklahoma’s only loss in that span came against Ole Miss, currently ranked sixth, in a one-score game. A win vs a ranked Missouri team and taking care of business against LSU the following week would all but guarantee them a spot in the 12-team field.
Louisville at SMU
- Both of these teams have one thing in common— a victory against No. 13 Miami. SMU is alive to make the ACC title game and a win against the same Cardinals team that beat a Hurricanes squad that was ranked second in the country at the time would be pivotal. While Rhett Lashlee & Co. would most likely need a win in the ACC title game in addition to winning out to guarantee a spot in the CFP, that is a scenario that is very possible (see ACC title game paths below).
Pittsburgh at 16 Georgia Tech
- Both of these teams can make the ACC title game, with Georgia Tech securing a spot in the game with a win vs Pitt. If the Panthers can get a win, they get Miami next week which would give them the opportunity to record two straight wins vs ranked opponents— assuming the Hurricanes handle business against Virginia Tech this week.
11 BYU at Cincinnati
- If BYU beats Cincinnati and UCF, they’ll secure a spot in the Big 12 title game— plain and simple. Five other teams in the Big 12 are still mathematically alive for a spot in the conference championship, and Cincinnati is one of them— making this a must-win matchup for them.
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Different Notable Matchups
Convention Title Sport Eventualities
ACC
Controls Personal Future to Attain ACC Championship
- Georgia Tech: 1 conference game remaining (this week vs Pittsburgh).
- Note: Virginia technically does not control its own destiny (due to highly unlikely tiebreaker scenario), but would be extremely probable that they make ACC Championship with a win over Virginia Tech next week.
Mathematically Alive to Attain ACC Championship
- Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU, Miami, Duke
Clinching Eventualities This Week
- Georgia Tech: Clinches ACC Championship berth with a win over Pittsburgh this week.
- Virginia: Clinches ACC Championship berth (despite not playing this week) with losses by Duke (at UNC), Pittsburgh (at Georgia Tech) & SMU (vs Louisville).
Easiest Path to ACC Championship Sport for Virginia
- Virginia beats Virginia Tech (next week).
- Virginia avoids a three-team tie with a combination of Georgia Tech, PItt & SMU.
- Note: It is highly likely that UVA makes ACC Championship with just a win over VT, but it would not be officially clinched.
Paths to ACC Championship for SMU
- Win out (vs Louisville, at Cal) and Pittsburgh beats Georgia Tech.
- Win out (vs Louisville, at Cal) and Virginia loses to Virginia Tech.
Easiest Path to ACC Championship Sport for Pitt
- Win out (at Georgia Tech, vs Miami).
- SMU loses at least 1 game (vs Louisville, at Cal).
Easiest Path to ACC Championship Sport for Miami
- Win out (at Virginia Tech, at Pittsburgh).
- Pittsburgh beats Georgia Tech.
- SMU loses at least 1 game (vs Louisville, at Cal).
- Would still need additional help (Virginia loses to Virginia Tech OR Duke loses at least once).
Huge 12
Management Personal Future to Attain Huge 12 Championship
- Texas Tech: 1 game remaining (at West Virginia next week)
- BYU: at Cincinnati, vs UCF.
Mathematically Alive to Attain Huge 12 Championship
- Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Houston, Arizona State, Cincinnati
Clinching Eventualities
- Texas Tech (off this week) and BYU (facing Cincinnati this week) both have two possible scenarios to clinch a Big 12 Championship Game berth this week.
Texas Tech Clinching Eventualities This Week
- Scenario 1: BYU win (over Cincinnati) + Colorado win (over ASU).
- Scenario 2: KSU win (at Utah) + Colorado win (over ASU) + Cincinnati win (over BYU).
BYU Clinching Eventualities This Week
- Scenario 1: Win (at Cincinnati) + TCU win (at Houston) + Colorado win (vs ASU)
- Scenario 2: Win (at Cincinnati) + Utah win (vs KSU) + Colorado win (vs ASU)
- BYU could still make Big 12 Championship game even with a loss to Cincinnati, but would need help:
- – BYU would need to beat UCF in final game.
- – Would need Cincinnati to lose final game (at TCU).
- – Would need Arizona State to lose at least 1 game (at Colorado, vs Arizona).
Easiest Path to Huge 12 Title Sport for Utah
- Win out (vs Kansas State, at Kansas).
- Cincinnati wins out (vs BYU, at TCU).
- Arizona State wins at least 1 game (at Colorado, vs Arizona).
Easiest Path to Huge 12 Title Sport for Arizona State
- Win out (at Colorado, vs Arizona).
- BYU loses to Cincinnati (this week).
- Cincinnati loses to TCU (next week).
Path to Huge 12 Title Sport for Cincinnati
- Win out (vs BYU, at TCU).
- At least 1 loss by Utah (vs Kansas State, at Kansas).
- At least 1 loss by ASU (at Colorado, vs Arizona).
- At least 1 loss by Houston (vs TCU, at Baylor).
Easiest Path to Huge 12 Title Sport for Houston
- Win out (vs TCU, at Baylor).
- At least 1 loss by Utah (vs KSU, at Kansas).
- At least 1 loss by Arizona State (at Colorado, vs Arizona).
- BYU loses to UCF (next week).
Huge Ten
Management Personal Future to Attain Huge Ten Championship
- Indiana: 1 game remaining (at Purdue next week).
- Ohio State: vs Rutgers, at Michigan.
Mathematically Alive to Attain Huge Ten Championship
- Indiana, Ohio State, USC, Oregon, Michigan.
Clinching Eventualities This Week
- No team can clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship this week.
Path to Huge Ten Title Sport for Oregon
- Win out (vs USC, at Washington).
- At least 1 loss by Ohio State (vs Rutgers, at Michigan).
Path to Huge Ten Title Sport for USC
- Win out (at Oregon, vs UCLA).
- Ohio State loses to Michigan.
Path to Huge Ten Title Sport for Michigan
- Win out (at Maryland, vs Ohio State).
- The winner of the USC/Oregon game loses its final game (USC hosts UCLA, Oregon plays at Washington).
SEC
Management Personal Future to Attain SEC Championship
- Texas A&M: 1 remaining conference game (next week at Texas).
Mathematically Alive to Attain SEC Championship
- Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss.
Clinching Eventualities This Week
- No team can clinch a spot in the SEC Championship this week.
Easiest Path to SEC Title Sport for Texas A&M
Easiest Path to SEC Title Sport for Alabama
- Beat Auburn (next week).
- Texas A&M loses to Texas (next week).
- Note: It is very likely that Alabama makes SEC Championship with just a win over Auburn, but it would not be officially clinched.
Easiest Path to SEC Title Sport for Georgia
- Alabama loses to Auburn OR Texas A&M loses to Texas.
Path to SEC Title Sport for Ole Miss
- Beat Mississippi State (next week).
- Texas A&M loses to Texas (next week).
- Alabama loses to Auburn (next week).
American
- No teams in the AAC fully control their own destiny (because the conference uses the CFP committee rankings as tiebreakers in the absence of head-to-head results).
- Navy, Tulane, North Texas, and ECU could all finish with one conference loss and since they all did not all play one another, the CFP committee rankings could determine the conference championship participants.
- If there is no head-to-head and no teams are ranked in the CFP Top 25, the next tiebreaker is a composite average of selected computer metrics.
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