Yardeni Analysis president Ed Yardeni discusses financial drivers heading into 2026 on Making Cash.
A brand new outlook from Cox Automotive initiatives that new automobile gross sales are anticipated to gradual barely in 2026 from final 12 months, which surpassed expectations for the trade.
Cox Automotive forecasted that the U.S. will see 15.8 million new automobiles bought in 2026, which represents a 2.4% decline from gross sales ranges a 12 months in the past. It additionally initiatives a 1.5% year-over-year decline in retail gross sales, whereas fleet gross sales are anticipated to fall 6.1% from 2025.
Moreover, Cox anticipates a slight year-over-year decline in used retail automobile gross sales as affordability pressures proceed to drive demand for inexpensive automobiles. The group additionally sees lease penetration amongst EV and plug-in hybrid automobiles declining 3 share factors from a 12 months in the past.
“The actual fact is, most automobile gross sales metrics in 2025 have been barely stronger than many forecast – together with us,” stated Jeremy Robb, interim chief economist at Cox Automotive. “Our 2026 forecast displays a slowing market, however nonetheless an excellent one.”
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Cox Automotive forecasts a slowing however sturdy auto market in 2026. (iStock)
“Whereas we’re anticipating most gross sales metrics to be decrease in comparison with 2025, the anticipated declines are modest, and we expect there shall be excellent news on rates of interest and tax returns that assist the auto market within the first half of 2026,” Robb added.
Cox Automotive’s outlook sees a number of prevailing financial forces which is able to in some circumstances assist and in others harm the auto trade in 2026.
The agency’s evaluation famous “bifurcated client dynamics” with higher-income households seeing advantages from rising monetary markets, tax reduction and rate of interest cuts that assist drive purchases of latest automobiles.
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Cox’s 2026 outlook anticipates extra trade-down exercise as shoppers search affordability. (Getty Photographs)
Nevertheless, lower-income shoppers are anticipated to proceed to face the monetary pressure of elevated inflation and excessive buy prices for brand new and used automobiles, with the agency explaining the “divergence will speed up trade-down conduct, making worth notion important throughout the market.”
Whereas inflation seems to be slowing and rate of interest cuts by the Federal Reserve might enhance family wealth, the report famous that “uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve management and independence creates volatility, delaying the housing restoration and limiting auto gross sales development.”
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The slowing labor market and chronic inflation are anticipated to constrain shoppers as they weigh bigger purchases. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg through Getty Photographs)
Cox Automotive additionally famous the “jobless enlargement” occurring within the U.S. economic system, with GDP rising on the again of funding and productiveness positive aspects even because the labor market has stagnated.
“Gradual job development will dampen family formation and confidence in big-ticket purchases, together with automobiles,” the outlook defined. “This weak labor market shall be a headwind for the auto market, however inventory market positive aspects is usually a tailwind.”
The agency’s evaluation additionally famous the influence of uncertainty from coverage modifications applied by the Trump administration that have an effect on the auto trade – significantly electrical automobiles (EVs).
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“Tariffs, fuel-economy changes and tax-code modifications will create a posh and dynamic panorama, with the USMCA renegotiation entrance and middle in 2026,” Cox analysts wrote. “In the meantime, the electrical automobiles market will enter its subsequent chapter in 2026, with out authorities incentives and off-lease EV fashions flooding the used market.”
