The Canadian economic system achieved a commerce surplus for the primary time for the reason that U.S. commerce warfare started, as exports rebounded and imports fell in September, based on Statistics Canada.
The company provides that export to international locations apart from the USA rose sharply by 11 per cent in the identical month — and that whereas exports to the U.S. elevated, imports from there dropped.
“Exports to the USA had been up 4.6 per cent in September, partly on account of larger exports of plane, mild vehicles and unwrought gold,” Statistics Canada famous.
“In the meantime, imports from the USA declined 1.7 per cent in September, a 3rd consecutive month-to-month lower.”
Canada noticed its whole exports climb 6.3 per cent in September in contrast with August as imports fell 4.1 per cent. In contrast with a 12 months in the past, September noticed whole exports climb 0.3 per cent, whereas whole imports fell 1.9 per cent.
Statistics Canada says the economic system noticed a “slight” commerce surplus of $153 million in September, following August’s $6.4-billion deficit, and a $3.8-billion deficit in July.
A commerce surplus occurs when the worth of products and companies exported is larger than the worth of these imported — just like when an organization makes a revenue on what it produces.
When the alternative happens, and an economic system imports greater than it exports, it’s thought of a commerce deficit.
“General story is absolutely constructive,” stated Prince Owusu, senior economist with Export Improvement Canada, to Reuters.
“It appears to counsel that the commerce circulate with the USA is starting to stabilize,” he stated, including that the development of diversification from the U.S. can also be persevering with.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has been working to steer Canada’s economic system away from the USA as its primary buying and selling companion to be able to cut back the influence of tariffs and the uncertainty of the commerce warfare. This has meant discovering various buying and selling companions and investing in new initiatives whereas increasing varied useful resource sectors to fulfill the demand.
It might not be simply the added value and uncertainty that’s influencing this shift away from the U.S. as Canada’s foremost buying and selling companion, it might even be sentiments of on a regular basis Canadians.
Customers’ sense of patriotism is fuelling the “Purchase Canadian” motion, whereas they’re additionally avoiding merchandise made in or sourced from the U.S.
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An Ipsos ballot launched through the summer season, and performed solely for International Information, discovered that 72 per cent of Canadian respondents had been actively avoiding U.S.-made items, and a separate ballot launched in September discovered six in 10 stated they may by no means belief the U.S. the identical method once more.
Statistics Canada says August’s improve in exports was the biggest since February 2024, with good points seen in 9 out of 11 sectors.
The most important exports had been seen in steel and non-metallic mineral merchandise, significantly from uncooked gold, in addition to silver and platinum group metals and alloys.
Most of those uncooked metals had been shipped to clients in Switzerland, the USA and the UK.
Trump’s tariff insurance policies have hit Canada’s aluminum and metal sector arduous, with a 50 per cent obligation positioned on all of those imports from different international locations. This has led U.S. companies to scale back their orders of Canadian items, like aluminum, to keep away from larger prices.
General exports of uncooked aluminum and aluminum alloys had been down 16.7 per cent in September in contrast with a 12 months earlier.
Nonetheless, Canada’s aluminum business managed to extend its exports to different international locations, just like the Netherlands and Italy.
Crude or uncooked oil exports had been up 5.8 per cent in September, which was the fifth straight month-to-month achieve in export worth for the sector.
Germany particularly purchased extra Canadian crude oil in September, which the company says contributed essentially the most to the sector’s progress within the month.
Singapore was additionally highlighted as a top-three buying and selling companion in September by Statistics Canada, primarily because of the nation shopping for crude oil and plane merchandise.
Statistics Canada says exports of plane to different international locations spiked 72.3 per cent in September, and the USA was the largest buyer of Canadian-made non-public jets. The company provides that these exports are likely to rise within the final month of 1 / 4, which was the case for September, however this 12 months, “they rose greater than they sometimes do.”
General, exports to the U.S. climbed 4.6 per cent in September in contrast with August, led by these plane merchandise in addition to uncooked gold, whereas imports from the U.S. declined 1.7 per cent — the third straight month-to-month drop.
In contrast with a 12 months earlier, Canadian exports to the U.S. had been nonetheless down 5.6 per cent in September, whereas imports from the U.S. had been down 8.2 per cent.
China was additionally highlighted as one of many foremost international locations Canada imported much less product from, which fell 11.3 per cent in September in contrast with August, and down 5.4 per cent from a 12 months earlier.
Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Financial institution of Canada, stated after studying Thursday’s report from Statistics Canada that he’s “cautiously optimistic” about Canada’s financial positioning proper now.
“Uncertainty about Canada’s future commerce relationship with the U.S. stays, slower inhabitants progress will weigh on mixture output, and weak productiveness progress persists as a structural problem,” Janzen stated in an announcement.
“However absent one other exterior shock, we (Royal Financial institution of Canada) stay cautiously optimistic in regards to the Canadian financial outlook within the 12 months forward and don’t anticipate the Financial institution of Canada might want to decrease rates of interest additional.”
The Financial institution of Canada held its key rate of interest at 2.25 per cent on Wednesday, saying borrowing charges in Canada had been “at about the precise degree” to stimulate the economic system whereas holding costs comparatively steady.
— with a file from Reuters
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