Iran has spent a long time constructing multi-tiered army capabilities at house and throughout the area that have been no less than partly geared toward deterring the US from attacking it. By getting into Israel’s struggle, the U.S. might have eliminated the final rationale for holding them in reserve.
That might imply a wave of assaults on U.S. forces within the Center East, an try to shut a key bottleneck for international oil provides or a splash to develop a nuclear weapon with what stays of Iran’s disputed program after American strikes on three key websites.
A call to retaliate in opposition to the U.S. and its regional allies would give Iran a far bigger goal financial institution and one that’s a lot nearer than Israel, permitting it to doubtlessly use its missiles and drones to higher impact. The U.S. and Israel have far superior capabilities, however these haven’t all the time confirmed decisive in America’s latest historical past of army interventions within the area.
Ever since Israel began the struggle with a shock bombardment of Iran’s army and nuclear websites on June 13, Iranian officers from the supreme chief on down have warned the U.S. to remain out, saying it could have dire penalties for the complete area.
It ought to quickly be clear whether or not these have been empty threats or a grim forecast.
Protesters chant slogans as one in every of them holds up a poster of the Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a protest following the U.S. assaults on nuclear websites in Iran, in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, June 22, 2025.
Vahid Salemi / The Related Press
Right here’s a have a look at what Iran’s subsequent transfer is perhaps.
Focusing on the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is the slender mouth of the Persian Gulf, by which some 20 per cent of all oil traded globally passes, and at its narrowest level it’s simply 33 kilometres extensive. Any disruption there may ship oil costs hovering worldwide and hit American pocketbooks.
Iran boasts a fleet of fast-attack boats and hundreds of naval mines that might doubtlessly make the strait impassable, no less than for a time. It may additionally fireplace missiles from its lengthy Persian Gulf shore, as its allies, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, have performed within the Purple Sea.
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The U.S., with its fifth Fleet stationed in close by Bahrain, has lengthy pledged to uphold freedom of navigation within the strait and would reply with far superior forces. However even a comparatively transient firefight may paralyze transport site visitors and spook traders, inflicting oil costs to spike and producing worldwide stress for a ceasefire.
Attacking US bases and allies within the area
The U.S. has tens of hundreds of troops stationed within the area, together with at everlasting bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Arab Gulf nations simply throughout the Persian Gulf from Iran — and far nearer than Israel.
These bases boast the identical sorts of subtle air defences as Israel, however would have a lot much less warning time earlier than waves of missiles or swarms of armed drones. And even Israel, which is a number of hundred kilometres additional away, has been unable to cease all the incoming fireplace.
Iran may additionally select to assault key oil and gasoline amenities in these nations with the purpose of exacting the next worth for U.S. involvement within the struggle. A drone assault on two main oil websites in Saudi Arabia in 2019 — claimed by the Houthis however extensively blamed on Iran — briefly minimize the dominion’s oil manufacturing in half.
Israeli troopers examine the positioning struck by a direct missile strike launched from Iran in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Sunday, June 22, 2025.
Bernat Armangue / The Related Press
Activating regional allies
Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance — a community of militant teams throughout the Center East, is a shadow of what it was earlier than the struggle ignited by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, assault on Israel out of the Gaza Strip — nevertheless it nonetheless has some formidable capabilities.
Israel’s 20-month struggle in Gaza has severely diminished the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad teams, and Israel mauled Lebanon’s Hezbollah final fall, killing most of its prime management and devastating a lot of southern Lebanon, making its involvement unlikely.
However Iran may nonetheless name on the Houthis, who had threatened to renew their assaults within the Purple Sea if the U.S. entered the struggle, and allied militias in Iraq. Each have drone and missile capabilities that will permit them to focus on the US and its allies.
Iran may additionally search to reply by militant assaults additional afield, as it’s extensively accused of doing within the Nineteen Nineties with an assault on a Jewish neighborhood middle in Argentina that was blamed on Tehran and Hezbollah.
A dash towards nuclear arms
It may very well be days or perhaps weeks earlier than the complete affect of the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear websites is thought.
However specialists have lengthy warned that even joint U.S. and Israeli strikes would solely delay Iran’s means to develop a weapon, not remove it. That’s as a result of Iran has dispersed its program throughout the nation to a number of websites, together with hardened, underground amenities.
Iran would seemingly wrestle to restore or reconstitute its nuclear program whereas Israeli and U.S. warplanes are circling overhead. However it may nonetheless determine to completely finish its cooperation with the Worldwide Atomic Power Company and abandon the the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
North Korea introduced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003 and examined a nuclear weapon three years later, nevertheless it had the liberty to develop its program with out punishing airstrikes.
Iran insists its program is peaceable, although it’s the solely non-nuclear-armed state to counterpoint uranium as much as 60 per cent, a brief, technical step away from weapons-grade ranges of 90 per cent. U.S. intelligence businesses and the IAEA assess Iran hasn’t had an organized army nuclear program since 2003.
Israel is extensively believed to be the one nuclear-armed state within the Center East however doesn’t acknowledge having such weapons.
© 2025 The Canadian Press
