All the Chiefs’ losses in their disappointing start to 2025 have followed a similar blueprint: an inability to finish at the critical moments of games.
In the season opener, against the Chargers in Brazil, Kansas City’s defense couldn’t get a stop on L.A.’s final drive, allowing its division rival to run out the clock. In Week 2, their Super Bowl rematch with the Eagles, the Chiefs blew their longest drive in the fourth quarter with a turnover. Patrick Mahomes was picked off at the goal line, where Kansas City had a chance to take the lead.
And on Monday night against the Jaguars, the Chiefs broke down defensively at the end. They gave up a long completion to Brian Thomas Jr. and later fouled him at the goal line. That set up Trevor Lawrence’s game-winning touchdown run, where Kansas City’s defensive line also failed to contain the QB, even after he fell down in the backfield.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence runs for the game-deciding touchdown against the Chiefs, a play during which he fell down in the backfield but still got around the corner. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
All of which begs the question: Is this just a blip or is it a sign of the end of a dynasty, the continuation of a downfall that started with Kansas City’s resounding Super Bowl defeat last season?
The Chiefs of the past couple years, despite their obvious flaws, were great in those moments. They executed well on the margins of close games down the stretch. They went 12-0 in one-score games in 2024, including 11-0 in the regular season, to reach a third straight Super Bowl. But these Chiefs, for whatever reason, don’t have the same clutch gene. They’re 0-3 in one-score games, which have been their only games against teams with winning records through five weeks.
It’s why these Chiefs (2-3) are not in the Super Bowl conversation. And it won’t get any easier to figure it out over the next seven weeks, when they face five teams that are over .500. It starts Sunday night when they host the red-hot Lions (4-1).
“I feel like we have the guys and we’ve executed at certain points in the game and looked really good, and then we kind of crush ourselves with penalties and mistakes and interceptions and fumbles or whatever that is,” Mahomes said after the Jaguars game. “It’s just we’ve kind of done that to ourselves all year long. It’s been one guy here or there and, in this league, it’s so close that those change games. We got to do better. We’ve lost too many games already. We got to find a way to be better as a team and come together and play better throughout the rest of the season.”
It’s not like the Chiefs don’t have anything positive going for them, though.
The offensive line is protecting Mahomes at a level we haven’t seen since his early days as a starter. He’s been pressured on just 25.8% of his dropbacks, fourth-best in the league among qualified quarterbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. He’s faced a 3.68% sack rate, which would be his lowest since 2020.
Mahomes’ completions, completion rate and passing yards have gone up in three straight weeks, an indication that the passing attack is coming along even without Rashee Rice, who still has one more week left in his suspension. Getting back Rice, the presumptive No. 1 receiver, will make Mahomes even more potent.
The Chiefs rank 12th in scoring (25.0), eighth in total offense (361.0 yards/game), ninth in passing (241.0 yards/game), 11th in rushing (120.0 yards/game) and sixth in EPA per play, per NGS. So this is clearly an offense, despite its issues — tied for third-worst with 42 penalties — that can compete with any contender.
Kansas City’s defense has also proven to be more than competent as well, despite the late breakdowns that have defined the early part of its season. It ranks 10th in pressure rate (37.2%), and 13th in points allowed (21.4), total defense (314.0 yards allowed/game) and EPA allowed per play, according to Next Gen Stats.
“At the end of the day,” Mahomes said, “it doesn’t matter how you play if you’re not finding ways to win football games, make winning plays.”
But at the very least, the Chiefs are a good team that should be even better late in the season when Rice comes back. They’re in a good, but not particularly scary AFC West with the Chargers and Broncos. Despite their record, Kansas City should be in the playoff mix down the stretch.
We also can’t write off the chance of the Chiefs turning into the Chiefs late in the year. They still have Mahomes and Andy Reid.
Early in the Mahomes era, Kansas City rode its explosive offenses to dominance. The past couple of years, elite defense masked offensive shortcomings to get back to the Super Bowl. Maybe the 2025 Chiefs become the latest iteration of a constantly evolving dynasty.
They could be the team that just needs to get into the playoffs to turn it on.
“I think we’ve got to clean up all phases — the sloppy play, the unforced errors by us,” defensive tackle Chris Jones said Monday. “I think if we can get that, we can get back on the right track.”
Until that happens, though, it’s fair to wonder if we’re seeing the beginning of the end.
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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