It’s pretty clear that Michigan’s hopes of making the College Football Playoff hinge on whether it can take down Ohio State this weekend. However, the Wolverines might need more than that in order to make the 12-team field.
Michigan was ranked 15th in the most recent CFP poll, placing it behind a handful of other 9-2 teams (Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami (Fla.), Utah, Vanderbilt) entering the final week of the regular season. However, a good number of the teams ranked above or right behind Michigan have intriguing matchups that could throw the CFP bubble into a frenzy.
No. 6 Oregon has to go to Washington, a program that has only lost once at home since the start of the 2022 season. No. 12 Miami takes on No. 22 Pitt. No. 14 Vanderbilt travels to No. 19 Tennessee. No. 16 Texas hosts No. 3 Texas A&M.
FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt said that if Michigan, Washington, Miami, Vanderbilt and Texas were to win those respective games — and assuming that Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama and Utah hold serve — the CFP committee would be dealt with a “chaos grenade” about what to do as those teams (with Oregon in place of Washington) chase the final at-large spots.
Klatt believes Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Alabama would be safe in this scenario, which might leave six teams battling for one at-large bid. If that’s the case, he believes Michigan should be in a good spot compared to the rest of the group.
“I would look at 9-3 Texas — don’t love it. They’ve got those gross wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State. I think they would be the first team eliminated out of those six, maybe. You’ve also got two of the worst losses of any of those six teams in Miami, with the Louisville and SMU losses. So, I think you can start to remove those two pretty quickly in that scenario. Utah has pretty clearly had a ceiling over them, so I think they would be the next one eliminated.
“You would also have Oregon, Vandy and Michigan. With Vandy and the big wins they would have and Michigan right behind them — I think it would come down to basically Oregon sliding and Michigan rising up. Remember, Michigan would’ve beaten the No. 1 team in the country. You would basically be having an Oregon-Michigan [debate] at No. 10. I believe that is what would occur in a full chaos mode.”
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One factor Klatt did not account for, although, was that if Michigan had been to beat Ohio State and Oregon misplaced to Washington this weekend, the Wolverines would truly be enjoying within the Huge Ten Championship Sport. So, they might make the CFP that approach, however that may both imply upsetting Indiana or beating Ohio State for a second straight week.
But when Michigan and Oregon needed to battle for the ultimate at-large spot, Klatt laid out the case for the Wolverines.
“If these 5 issues occur [this weekend], I believe it will most likely come all the way down to Oregon and Michigan at that time,” Klatt mentioned. “I believe Michigan would have the one finest win within the nation. Oregon would have a win over USC, who beat Michigan. However Michigan would have a win over Washington, who on this case, would’ve simply crushed Oregon. So, it will get messy. Miami could be throwing issues round, saying ‘Notre Dame is in there and we must be included.’”
Nonetheless, there’s additionally a situation through which Klatt’s hypothetical Michigan-Oregon debate won’t matter. If Eleventh-ranked BYU had been to beat UCF this weekend and take down a one-loss and fifth-ranked Texas Tech group within the Huge 12 Championship Sport, that last at-large spot might theoretically go to the Purple Raiders.
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That situation would seemingly go away Michigan outdoors of the playoff, even with its win over Ohio State, partly resulting from its non-conference loss to Oklahoma earlier within the season. As that loss to Oklahoma might maintain Michigan out, Klatt is not positive if excluding the Wolverines on this situation would ship the appropriate message to the faculty soccer world.
“We have talked at size that the committee has to think about these non-conference video games which are scheduled willingly that groups do not buy out of,” Klatt mentioned. “If Michigan had been to beat Ohio State and if Michigan had been to be proper on the bubble, then the committee could be speaking to everybody throughout the game in regards to the schedule. Michigan scheduled Oklahoma. It did not purchase out of the sport. Went down there, performed them on the highway with a real freshman quarterback and misplaced. Then, it ended up happening a successful streak and, on this situation, with a win over the No. 1 group, they might be sitting there, considering to themselves, ‘You’re telling us if we do not go to the playoff, we must always’ve scheduled Southeastern Missouri State.’
“That is what the committee could be telling them, and that is not what we wish the committee telling anyone. We would like them to worth non-conference video games, significantly massive ones between two blue bloods. That is what we wanna see.”
In fact, a two-loss Oklahoma group would possibly get the sting over a two-loss Michigan group for a playoff spot due to that head-to-head victory. However Klatt acknowledged that the hole for Michigan to get an at-large spot would possibly already be insurmountable due to that loss, which he does not really feel is true.
“If [Michigan] had been to beat Ohio State, the clear No. 1 group within the nation, it will be on the bubble,” Klatt mentioned. “I do assume you must think about what message you are sending to the remainder of faculty soccer if they don’t seem to be included within the playoff. You would be telling them, ‘We might’ve somewhat seen you at 11-1 and play a patsty than be 10-2 and play a blue blood on the highway.’ Simply one thing to chew on.'”
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