‘Essential purpose for optimism’ is a perception that battle in Ukraine will finish in 2026 with Moscow’s ‘goals’ achieved,’ pollster says.
Printed On 25 Dec 2025
A majority of Russians count on the battle in Ukraine to finish in 2026, a state-owned analysis centre mentioned, as Russian forces make advances on the battlefield and efforts intensify to achieve a ceasefire deal between Kyiv and Moscow.
VTsIOM, Russia’s main public opinion analysis centre, mentioned on Wednesday that its annual survey of sentiment across the outgoing 12 months and expectations for the approaching 12 months discovered Russians are viewing 2026 with “rising optimism”.
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“Expectations for subsequent 12 months historically look way more optimistic … In different phrases, whereas the unfavorable notion of the present state of affairs persists, Russians have develop into extra prone to settle for (or imagine, hope?) future enhancements this 12 months, however they nonetheless achieve this with warning,” the organisation mentioned in a overview of its survey findings launched on-line.
In a year-end presentation, VTsIOM deputy head Mikhail Mamonov mentioned 70 % of 1,600 folks surveyed seen 2026 as being a extra “profitable” 12 months for Russia than this 12 months, with 55 % of respondents linking hope for a greater 12 months to a potential finish to what Russia formally calls its “particular navy operation” in Ukraine.
“The primary purpose for optimism is the potential completion of the particular navy operation and the achievement of the acknowledged goals, in keeping with the nationwide pursuits outlined by the president,” Mamonov mentioned on the presentation.
Mamonov pointed to the Russian navy’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine, Washington’s reluctance to finance the Ukraine battle and the European Union’s incapability to totally substitute the United States’ position in Ukraine – financially and militarily – as key components behind the prospects for an eventual deal to finish the combating.
On the conclusion of the battle, reintegration of Russian navy veterans into society and the reconstruction of Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine, in addition to Russian border areas, would be the important priorities, Mamonov added.
Whereas the precise stage of Russian public fatigue with the battle is troublesome to measure because of strict state controls on the media, expressions of public dissent in addition to the prosecution of those that criticise Moscow’s battle on its neighbour, roughly two-thirds of Russians help peace talks, based on impartial pollster Levada, the best quantity for the reason that begin of the battle in 2022.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned in feedback launched on Wednesday that he could be keen to withdraw troops from Ukraine’s jap industrial heartland as a part of a plan to finish the battle, if Moscow reciprocated by additionally pulling again its forces and allowed the world to develop into a demilitarised zone monitored by worldwide forces.
In feedback to reporters about an overarching 20-point plan that negotiators from Ukraine and the US had hammered out in Florida in current days, Zelenskyy additionally mentioned {that a} comparable association could possibly be potential for the world across the Zaporizhzhia nuclear energy plant, which is presently beneath Russian management.
Russia has given no indication that it’s going to comply with any sort of withdrawal from land it has seized in Ukraine and has lengthy insisted that Kyiv should quit the remaining territory it nonetheless holds within the Donbas industrial space earlier than any discussions on the cessation of combating.
Russia has captured most of Luhansk and about 70 % of Donetsk – the 2 areas that make up the Donbas.
Zelenskyy additionally mentioned that determining the longer term management of the Donbas as a part of the plan was “essentially the most troublesome level”, and making a demilitarised financial zone within the area would require troublesome discussions on how far troops could be required to maneuver again and the place worldwide forces could be stationed.
Such discussions must be held on the leaders’ stage, he mentioned.
