Just two weeks after the New York Giants upset the Philadelphia Eagles, the two teams meet again in a bit of a scheduling fluke. The rematch is one of the more notable games in NFL Week 8 odds.
A worthwhile question: Does payback factor into an oddsmaker’s thinking?
“There is more of a revenge factor there. The Eagles want to get this win, badly. But from a pure math point of view, not really,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Giants-Eagles and more, as we dive into NFL Week 8 betting nuggets.
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NFL Rocks on FOX
In the Week 6 Thursday night game, Philly was a 7.5-point road favorite vs. New York. Then the rookie combo of QB Jaxson Dart and running back Cam Skattebo had their way in the Giants’ 34-17 victory.
That upset might’ve occurred recently enough for the G-Men to enjoy some recency bias.
If only Week 7 didn’t exist.
As everyone knows by now, the Giants had a 26-8 lead at Denver well into the fourth quarter, but managed to lose 33-32 on a final-second field goal. On the flip side, the Eagles halted a two-game skid with a solid showing at Minnesota, winning 28-22.
So Caesars opened the Eagles as 7-point home favorites for Sunday’s rematch, at 1 p.m. ET on FOX. And on Wednesday, Philadelphia advanced to -7.5.
“The Giants melted down last week, and the Eagles played well against a good defensive team,” Feazel said Wednesday afternoon. “Action-wise, Giants-Eagles is probably what you’d anticipate. People remember what happened last week, and the early money is on the Eagles.
“I expect action to continue coming in on the Eagles.”
Philly is 5-2 straight up (SU) and 4-3 against the spread (ATS), while New York is 2-5 SU/4-3 ATS.
Sunday Night Fight
The Packers-Steelers tilt has an interesting angle to it, as well. Aaron Rodgers faces the team with which he built his legacy
Green Bay (4-1-1 SU/2-4 ATS) opened as a 3-point road favorite vs. Pittsburgh (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS). One potential advantage for Rodgers and the Steelers: They played in the Week 7 Thursday night game, so they’ve gotten a little more rest.
But Pittsburgh also lost that game 33-31 as 5.5-point favorites at Cincinnati.
“Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers are off a rough loss. But with the mini-bye, they got a couple extra days off, plus this is the late game Sunday night,” Feazel said. “The stadium is gonna be electric, with two historic teams.
“We’re seeing two-way action so far, which surprises me, because the Packers generate action week in and week out. But Green Bay isn’t covering the spread.”
Indeed, the Packers are on an 0-4 ATS slide entering Week 8.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is involved with Sunday’s 49ers-Texans tilt. And interestingly, he’s on the Texans (2-4 SU and ATS), despite their sub-.500 record and a lackluster showing in Monday’s 27-19 loss at Seattle.
McKay took the Texans -1 at home.
“Houston is coming off a poor Monday night game. But I don’t expect a banged-up 49ers defense to have the same success as Seattle did,” McKay said. “The Houston defense is one of the best in the league and will give either 49ers quarterback trouble here.”
Brock Purdy (toe), who has played in just two games this season, is again questionable. So Mac Jones could again be under center for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
Further, two weeks ago, the Niners lost star linebacker Fred Warner for the season with a broken/dislocated ankle. And San Fran’s defense has other injuries at all three levels.
QB Quantifiers
Commanders-Chiefs looks pretty appetizing at first glance. Jayden Daniels vs. Patrick Mahomes, right?
Well, probably wrong this week.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Daniels (hamstring) is doubtful to play in the 8:15 p.m. ET Monday night matchup. So how much is that worth to the point spread, going from Daniels to Marcus Mariota?
“Last week’s look-ahead line was Chiefs -5.5. We opened -10, and we’re now looking at -12.5,” Feazel said, though he thinks that might be a bit too much. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the line goes a little bit lower. I don’t think the difference between Daniels and Mariota is as much as the market is showing.”
Not that it will matter to the public betting masses, as demonstrated by action so far.
“It’s one-way traffic on the Chiefs, and I don’t anticipate that changing,” Feazel said.
Kansas City is 4-3 SU and ATS, while Washington is 3-4 SU and ATS.
Alternatively, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring) is expected to return, after missing two games. And not a moment too soon, with the Ravens struggling at 1-5 SU and ATS.
Baltimore opened as a 6.5-point home favorite vs. the Bears (4-2 SU and ATS) in a 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff. Feazel said this point spread would be close to a pick ‘em without Jackson.
Duel in Denver
As noted above, the Broncos snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in Week 7 vs. the Giants. The Cowboys (3-3-1 SU/4-3 ATS) had no such issues, drilling Washington 44-22.
Caesars opened Denver (5-2 SU/2-5 ATS) as a 3-point home favorite, and as of Wednesday afternoon, the Broncos are -3.5 (-104). But the nudge upward isn’t indicative of early action.
“It’s all about the Cowboys’ offense at this point,” Feazel said. “They’ve shown that their offense is very efficient, and that’s going to catch bettors’ eyes. We’re gonna see a lot of Cowboys action on the spread and the moneyline.
“We get sharp action week in and week out on Denver. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that show up later in the week. But the public is gonna be on the much more explosive offense with the Cowboys.”
Correspondingly, the total is on the rise in this game, going from 48.5 on Sunday to 50.5 by Tuesday.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Not much has landed yet in the way of major wagers on NFL Week 8 odds. So let’s go into the wayback machine a couple days, to Monday night in the NFL.
A DraftKings Sportsbook customer plunked down $115,000 on Lions -5.5 (-115) vs. the Buccaneers. Detroit easily covered that spread in a 24-9 victory.
So the bettor banked $100,000 in profit, for a total payout of $215,000.
In Monday’s nightcap, a DraftKings customer put $50,000 on Seahawks -3 vs. Texans. Seattle got there with relative ease in a 27-19 victory. So the bettor profited $45,454.55, for a total payout of $95,454.55.
And since we mentioned it above, how about one more painful reminder of the Giants’ stunning collapse vs. the Broncos?
At DraftKings, a customer used a $250 bonus bet — so, ostensibly, a free bet — on a six-leg single-game parlay. The odds were a huge +150000, or in easier-to-digest terms, 1500/1.
Five legs got there. All the bettor needed to turn that bonus bet into a massive $375,000: New York to win the game.
Instead, the Giants blew an 18-point lead over the final 10 minutes. There were three lead changes in the final two minutes, and New York lost 33-32.
That bettor and others probably don’t need this reminder, but: Parlays are a bookmaker’s best friend. Keep that in mind, and keep your expectations reasonable.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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