A recent poll indicates strong national unity, with 79 percent of Canadians favoring Alberta’s continued place in Confederation and 71 percent supporting the same for Quebec in a hypothetical separation vote.
Regional Variations in Support
Support levels vary across provinces. Ontarians show the strongest backing, with 84 percent voting to retain Alberta and 76 percent for Quebec. Residents of British Columbia and Atlantic Canada also express robust support at 83 percent for Alberta and 73 percent for Quebec.
Saskatchewan records the lowest figures, where only 62 percent wish to keep neighboring Alberta united and 51 percent back Quebec’s inclusion. Within the provinces in question, 58 percent of Albertans support Quebec remaining in Canada, while 72 percent of Quebecers favor Alberta staying.
Economic Concerns Dominate
Most Canadians anticipate negative economic fallout from separation. Regarding Alberta’s potential exit, 41 percent predict more negative than positive impacts, and 40 percent foresee overwhelmingly negative effects. For Quebec, 42 percent expect more negatives, with 20 percent viewing it as overwhelmingly harmful. Just 8 percent in each scenario believe the national economy would benefit overwhelmingly.
Even locally, optimism wanes. In Alberta, only 36 percent see predominantly positive economic outcomes for independence (17 percent overwhelmingly positive, 19 percent more positive). Quebec figures are lower at 24 percent combined.
Fears of U.S. Influence
Canadians express significant worry over potential U.S. pressure on a separated province. For Alberta, 45 percent believe the U.S. would definitely apply political pressure, 44 percent expect economic pressure, and 27 percent anticipate military involvement. Quebec concerns are slightly lower, with 25 percent citing definite political pressure, 27 percent economic, and 18 percent military.
Shachi Kurl, president of Angus Reid, describes the findings as “a tale of two separation narratives.” She highlights Alberta’s focus on economic contributions amid perceived grievances and Quebec’s emphasis on culture, language, and identity.
Kurl notes that U.S. dynamics, influenced by recent events, dampen separatist momentum. “It speaks to where Canadians… are right now, having watched everything that’s come out of the Trump White House,” she said. She adds that while some Albertans view closer U.S. ties favorably, it poses cultural risks for Quebec, likening it to navigating an English-dominated North America.
Poll Methodology
The survey, conducted February 2-6 among 3,010 Canadian adults, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, 19 times out of 20.
