A demonstrator outdoors the US Supreme Courtroom in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025.
Eric Lee | Bloomberg | Getty Photos
The looming U.S. Supreme Courtroom choice on the legality of a lot of President Donald Trump’s tariffs has firms on edge as they eye potential refunds, however the ruling additionally might shortly affect the amount of commerce to the U.S. forward of Lunar New 12 months, in line with logistics consultants.
The freight business within the U.S. has been in a charge recession as a result of decrease container volumes after firms front-loaded merchandise to melt the affect of tariffs. The pulling ahead of freight altered the normal peak season of transport container motion in 2025.
If the tariffs carried out below the Worldwide Emergency Financial Powers Act are dominated to be unlawful by the Supreme Courtroom, imports to the U.S. might rise as firms really feel extra assured about their money scenario and search a gap to buffer stock forward of any revised tariff plan from the Trump administration, which officers mentioned can be able to go and achieve its current commerce targets.
“If the IEEPA tariffs had been to be faraway from all imported items, there would definitely be a rise in imports,” mentioned Paul Brashier, vp of world provide chain for ITS Logistics. “Particularly for items not too long ago being sourced in higher-tariffed nations,” he mentioned.
The Supreme Courtroom issued three choices Wednesday morning, however the tariffs case was not amongst them.
Whereas Trump’s commerce conflict hasn’t slowed Chinese language commerce with different nations — it simply reported a report $1.2 trillion commerce surplus — world ocean container volumes to the U.S. tracked by Sonar present a 14% lower yr over yr. The upper tariffs compelled some companies to run with leaner inventories, with the drop in Chinese language commerce probably the most extreme. Project44’s January Tariff Report estimates U.S. imports from China fell 28% yr over yr, whereas exports to China declined 38% in 2025. “This marked one of many sharpest bilateral commerce contractions in latest historical past,” Project44 famous in its report.
The Supreme Courtroom choice comes at a crucial time of yr for provide chain administration choices inside firms as a result of factories shut down in China for a month in February for the Lunar New 12 months. Orders for the supply of spring and summer time freight must be positioned early to make sure the merchandise depart the factories to be delivered in time to the U.S. The timeframe for firms to position manufacturing orders for Lunar New 12 months is usually on the finish of December or the start of January, to keep away from the slowdown in manufacturing of their imports. In response to Seko Logistics, the slowdown begins three to 4 weeks earlier than Lunar New 12 months, as employees start to start out leaving the factories to go residence.
This yr, the Lunar New 12 months falls between Feb. 17 and March 3.
“If the Supreme Courtroom does rule the tariffs unlawful, this can completely affect orders with an elevated demand for bookings for 3 causes,” mentioned Brian Bourke, chief industrial officer for Seko Logistics. “First, the timing of the Lunar New 12 months vacation. Second, we absolutely anticipate different tariff provisions for use, however there are limits and implementation timelines that can encourage firms to ‘beat the clock’ once more, and third is the anticipated infusion of future money to fund these purchases.”
If the tariffs are dominated unlawful, the Courtroom of Worldwide Commerce has the authorized authority to require refunds are paid to U.S. importers and retain jurisdiction over claims for refunds for a two-year statute of limitations interval. On the identical time, the Trump administration has mentioned if the Supreme Courtroom guidelines towards it, there’s already a plan in place to implement tariffs utilizing different authorized provisions.
Smaller firms can be anticipated to behave first. “Small and medium-sized companies should begin ordering early in comparison with the bigger companies due to their planning and smaller workers,” mentioned Eytan Buchman, CMO of Freightos. “The tariffs are sucking the life out of them due to the shortage of stability of their provide chain planning. There’s an excessive amount of uncertainty.”
Based mostly on its evaluation overlaying 5 years of Lunar New 12 months ordering knowledge, Freightos would anticipate a surge of orders from small and medium-sized companies to kick in very quickly if a ruling towards Trump’s tariffs is issued.
“Usually, we see a large spike in importer exercise three to 4 weeks forward of Chinese language New 12 months,” mentioned Buchman. “This implies U.S. small and medium-sized companies have till Jan. 20 to plan their cargo.”
A latest survey from Freightos signifies that small and medium-sized companies will not all essentially start resourcing from China. Respondents mentioned if the tariffs had been dominated unlawful by the Supreme Courtroom, they’d broaden their world sourcing base and consider high-quality, lower-cost suppliers in new areas with out tariff-related value penalties. Others talked about they’d transfer manufacturing again to China.
A latest CNBC Provide Chain survey confirmed there was no bump in further orders from China in November or December after a commerce truce between the 2 nations was introduced on Oct. 30, regardless of expectations by logistics managers there could possibly be a surge in new orders. The present scenario of lean inventories inside the U.S. provide chain might be seen clearly in commerce knowledge after the vacations. Warehouse inventories tracked on the Logistics Managers’ Index present a powerful contraction in warehouse inventories by 17.4% month over month.
“Proper now, there’s a specific amount of defeatism as a result of they really feel worse off than a yr in the past. They need to have the ability to plan their provide chain,” Buchman mentioned.
However not all gamers inside the provide chain are satisfied that the courtroom’s choice can be a serious swing think about commerce volumes to the U.S. IMC Logistics tells CNBC it’s seeing robust volumes from Asia to the West Coast and doesn’t foresee a decline in volumes as retailers, producers and wholesalers are actively restocking after a sturdy vacation season. “Import volumes have continued to reveal power via the tip of the yr and into January 2026,” mentioned Brian Kobza, IMC’s chief industrial officer.
Kobza added that due to the time it takes for orders to be made after which journey throughout the ocean, any affect on larger container volumes wouldn’t be seen for roughly 45 days. “We don’t consider the ruling will affect whole import volumes both method based mostly on how commerce reacted in 2025,” he mentioned.
“If the Supreme Courtroom overturns the tariffs, there could also be a small bump, however nothing dramatic seems to be coming,” mentioned Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA.
