In the beginning of the 12 months, Wall Road’s prime executives equipped for a wave of dealmaking, anticipating that insurance policies below the second Trump administration would gasoline mergers and acquisitions. Their establishments have certainly seen a windfall from the federal government’s financial agenda however not in the way in which they initially anticipated. As an alternative of sparking an M&A increase, Trump’s financial playbook has been dominated by tariff-driven market volatility. And that turbulence is now delivering file buying and selling revenues for giant banks.
“Volatility goes to, I think, be a characteristic—not a bug—of the brand new world order,” Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser instructed analysts on July 15. “We are going to all profit from that.”
Citigroup’s buying and selling income surged to $5.9 billion within the April-June quarter, up 16 p.c from a 12 months earlier, fueled by progress in each equities and FICC (mounted revenue, currencies and commodities).
Different main banks additionally posted standout buying and selling outcomes. Financial institution of America noticed a 15 p.c leap in gross sales and buying and selling income to $5.4 billion, representing its thirteenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year progress, in keeping with CEO Brian Moynihan through the financial institution’s July 16 earnings name.
Morgan Stanley reported a record-breaking quarter for fairness buying and selling, pulling in $3.72 billion versus $3 billion a 12 months in the past. At JPMorgan Chase, income from FICC and equities rose 14 p.c and 15 p.c year-over-year, respectively. Goldman Sachs outpaced all of them, with fairness buying and selling income hovering 36 p.c. That acquire, CEO David Solomon stated, stemmed from political uncertainty that “drove purchasers to reposition portfolios throughout asset lessons.”
Altogether, market volatility powered Wall Road’s 5 largest banks to a mixed $33.8 billion in buying and selling income within the second quarter—a 17 p.c year-over-year enhance, in keeping with a Monetary Information evaluation.
Is M&A exercise rebounding?
Finance leaders had initially predicted that Trump’s pro-growth, deregulatory agenda would revive M&A exercise. To date, nonetheless, dealmaking has been gradual to take off. In April, the U.S. recorded its lowest month-to-month variety of M&A offers since Could 2009.
Nonetheless, some indicators of a rebound are rising. At JPMorgan, funding banking charges—which embrace companies tied to M&A—rose 7 p.c year-over-year. “[Investment banking] exercise began gradual however gained momentum as market sentiment improved,” stated CEO Jamie Dimon within the financial institution’s earnings launch.
Goldman Sachs noticed a fair sharper uptick, with funding banking charges rising 26 p.c in comparison with the identical quarter in 2024. “Whereas exercise was slower within the first half of the quarter, introduced M&A volumes for the 12 months to this point are 30 p.c greater year-over-year and 15 p.c larger than the comparable five-year common,” Solomon stated, including that “the dealmaking surroundings has been exceptional resilient.”
