Two days earlier than the waters of the Guadalupe River swelled right into a lethal and devastating Fourth of July flood in Kerr County, Texas, engineers with a California-based firm referred to as Rainmaker took off in an airplane about 100 miles away and dispersed 70 grams of silver iodide right into a cloud.
Their objective? To make it rain over Texas — a part of a climate modification observe referred to as cloud seeding, which makes use of chemical compounds to reinforce water droplets inside clouds, making the drops massive sufficient and heavy sufficient to fall to the bottom.
However within the hours after the flood swept by way of the larger Kerrville space and killed at the least 135 folks, together with three dozen kids, conspiracy theories started swirling amongst a small however vocal group of fringe figures.
“I NEED SOMEONE TO LOOK INTO WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS … WHEN WAS THE LAST CLOUD SEEDING?” wrote Pete Chambers, a former U.S. particular forces commander and outstanding far-right activist, on the social media platform X.
The put up acquired 3.1 million views, but was solely one in every of a number of accusations that sprang up round Rainmaker’s actions and its alleged connection to the flood.
“Anybody who calls this out as a conspiracy principle can go F themselves,” wrote Michael Flynn, former nationwide safety advisor below the primary Trump administration, atop a repost of Chambers’ tweet.
The flurry of allegations was rapidly debunked, with a variety of unbiased scientists saying that the corporate’s actions couldn’t have produced anyplace near the quantity of rain that triggered the flood.
“It’s very clear that they don’t have anything to do with it,” stated Daniel Swain, a local weather scientist with the College of California Agriculture and Pure Assets, in a YouTube briefing following the flood.
Rainmaker additionally denied the claims. The storm dropped as a lot as 4 inches of rain per hour over Texas Hill Nation, and the river in some locations rose by 26 ft in lower than 45 minutes.
However in some methods, the harm was accomplished. Conspiracy theorists who’ve lengthy alleged that Deep State Democrats are controlling the climate now had an actual incident to level to. And researchers, firms and specialists working to check and carry out climate modification and geoengineering practices — which some say will likely be wanted as local weather change worsens — now have a good larger hurdle to beat.
Inside hours of the lethal flood, Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene stated she was introducing a invoice to make all types of climate modification — comparable to cloud seeding — a felony.
“This isn’t regular,” the Georgia consultant stated in a put up on X. “No particular person, firm, entity, or authorities ought to ever be allowed to switch our climate by any means doable!!”
That very same week, the U.S. Environmental Safety Company launched two new web sites to “handle public questions and issues “ about climate modification, geoengineering, and contrails, or the skinny clouds that kind behind plane at excessive altitudes.
“To anybody who’s ever regarded as much as the streaks within the sky and requested,’ what the heck is occurring?,’ or seen headlines about non-public actors and even governments trying to blot out the solar within the title of stopping world warming — we’ve endeavored to reply your whole questions,” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated in a video accompanying the web sites’ launch. “In actual fact, EPA shares most of the identical issues in terms of potential threats to human well being and the surroundings.”
The EPA web site notes that there’s a distinction between geoengineering, which includes a broad vary of actions designed to switch world temperatures, and climate modification strategies comparable to cloud seeding, that are typically short-lived and localized.
In actual fact, the method of cloud seeding was invented in the US and has existed for almost 80 years. Basic Electrical scientists Vincent Schaefer, Irving Langmuir and Bernard Vonnegut — older brother of the late novelist Kurt Vonnegut — started experimenting with it as early as 1946.
On July 2, Rainmaker’s crew was working in Runge, Texas, about 125 miles southeast of the place the Guadalupe River would quickly flood, in keeping with Augustus Doricko, founder and chief government of the corporate, which is headquartered in El Segundo.
The crew flew its airplane to an elevation of 1,600 ft and dispersed about 70 grams of silver iodide into the clouds — an quantity smaller than a handful of Skittles, Doricko stated. The brilliant yellow compound is understood to latch onto water droplets which are already current in clouds, changing them into ice crystals that may fall as rain or snow, relying on the temperature beneath.
Quickly after the flight, Rainmaker’s meteorologists recognized an influx of moisture to the area and suggested the crew to droop operations, which they did, Doricko stated. Round 1 a.m. the following day, the Nationwide Climate Service issued its first flash flood look ahead to the Kerr County area.
Doricko stated there’s no likelihood Rainmaker’s actions — which have been contracted by the nonprofit South Texas Climate Modification Assn. and on file with the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — contributed to the flood.
“The most important and greatest cloud seeding operations we’ve seen thus far have produced tens of tens of millions — and maximally like 100 million — gallons of precipitation,” he stated. “We noticed in extra of a trillion gallons of precipitation from that flood. Not solely might cloud seeding not have induced this, however the aerosols that we dispersed days prior couldn’t have persevered within the environment lengthy sufficient to have had any consequence on the storm.”
A number of unbiased specialists agreed.
Throughout his briefing, Swain famous that cloud seeding doesn’t create new clouds — it have to be carried out on preexisting clouds that have already got water vapor or small liquid drops inside them, basically enhancing what already had the potential to fall. What’s extra, its results final “minutes to perhaps an hour,” Swain stated.
“Greatest-case-scenario estimates — absolute best-case — are that these cloud-seeding operations are capable of increase the quantity of precipitation by at most 10% to fifteen% over very restricted areas,” Swain stated. “On common, it’s so much decrease than that. In actual fact, in some circumstances, it’s troublesome to show that cloud seeding does something in any respect.”
Certainly, Andrew Dessler, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M College, has gone as far as to name cloud seeding a rip-off — partially as a result of it might prey on farmers and different people who find themselves determined for rain, and since it sometimes delivers solely modest outcomes, he stated.
“There’s no bodily manner that cloud seeding might have made the Texas storm,” Dessler stated, noting that the storm was fueled by extraordinarily excessive ranges of atmospheric water that stemmed from a tropical disturbance within the Gulf of Mexico. “This can be a nonsense argument. There’s no debate right here about whether or not cloud seeding performed a job on this catastrophe.”
Dessler stated the entire dust-up surrounding Rainmaker and the Texas flood is a distraction from the very actual points and challenges posed by world warming. The quantity of fabric injected into the environment throughout cloud seeding and geoengineering operations pales compared to the trillions of tons of carbon dioxide people have already spewed into the environment, he stated.
“The true irony right here is that in some sense, the argument they’re making is appropriate — there’s a conspiracy to vary the local weather,” Dessler stated. “It’s by way of the emission of carbon dioxide, and it’s by fossil gas pursuits and the ecosystem that goes with that. That’s the conspiracy.”
Such limitations haven’t stopped governments and municipalities from investing in cloud-seeding expertise.
One in all Rainmaker’s first purchasers was the Utah Division of Pure Assets, which was involved in cloud seeding as a response to the drying of the Nice Salt Lake, Doricko stated. His firm has additionally contracted with the Colorado Division of Pure Assets, the Oregon Division of Agriculture and a number of municipalities in California, together with the Public Works Departments of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.
David Spiegel, supervising engineer with San Luis Obispo County’s Public Works Division, stated the county first started exploring cloud-seeding expertise within the early 2000s in response to extreme drought situations and dwindling provides on the Lopez Lake reservoir, which feeds 5 metropolis businesses close by. It took years to get this system off the bottom, and it didn’t finally run till 2019 by way of 2024 — when the state was coping with yet one more drought — to considerably middling outcomes.
Particularly, San Luis Obispo’s cloud-seeding program added about 1,200 acre-feet of water per yr to the almost 50,000 acre-foot reservoir, he stated. (An acre-foot is about 326,000 gallons.) In its greatest yr, it added about 2,500 acre-feet.
A part of the problem was that there weren’t many clouds within the space to work with, Spiegel stated. “We didn’t have sufficient storms to seed as a result of we have been nonetheless on this drought interval, so it was type of unlucky.”
Nonetheless, he nonetheless noticed this system as successful as a result of the small water provide features that got here from the cloud seeding priced out to about $300 per acre-foot — far lower than the price of importing provides from different sources such because the State Water Venture, which might run nearer to $1,500 an acre-foot. He stated he would nonetheless think about cloud seeding sooner or later ought to the reservoir run low once more.
“We positively see it as a viable possibility,” Spiegel stated.
Thus far, the state isn’t investing in its personal cloud-seeding packages, although it does maintain a detailed eye on them, in keeping with Jason Ince, a spokesman with the California Division of Water Assets. He stated any teams conducting cloud seeding work are required to inform the company by submitting a discover of intent.
An October report printed by the division signifies there have been at the least 16 cloud-seeding initiatives throughout a number of counties and watersheds in California in recent times.
Such efforts might grow to be helpful as local weather situations maintain shifting within the flawed course: Warming temperatures and overuse are sapping groundwater provides in California, whereas state and federal officers are nonetheless mired in negotiations over use of the Colorado River — a quickly shrinking water lifeline that provides 40 million folks throughout the American West.
In the meantime, world common temperatures proceed to soar pushed largely by fossil gas emissions and human exercise. Many specialists say there’s a very good likelihood that some type of intervention — climate modification, geoengineering or some altogether new expertise — will likely be wanted within the years forward.
“Climate modification initiatives are important assets to reinforce recent water provide for communities inside their watersheds,” the Division of Water Assets report says. It recommends that the state proceed to assist current cloud-seeding initiatives within the state and assist facilitate new ones.
Speigel, of San Luis Obispo County, stated legal guidelines banning cloud seeding and different climate modification measures — such because the one posed by Rep. Greene — could be a detriment to the area.
“It could be a setback for us, as a result of we’re always on the lookout for different alternatives for water,” he stated. “It could restrict our means to hunt out technique of extra water in these lengthy drought durations. … I positively suppose it will stifle our means to assist our clients.”
Much more controversial than cloud seeding are geoengineering strategies to dam the quantity of photo voltaic vitality reaching the Earth. Some contain injecting sulfur into the stratosphere. A 2021 report on geoengineering printed by the Nationwide Academies of Sciences affirmed that “assembly the problem of local weather change requires a portfolio of choices,” however suggested warning round such strategies.
“[Solar geoengineering] might probably supply an extra technique for responding to local weather change however will not be an alternative to lowering [greenhouse gas] emissions,” the report says.
Dessler, who can be the director of the Texas Heart for Excessive Climate at Texas A&M, likened geoengineering to airbags on a automobile — one thing nobody ever hopes to make use of however that might be good to have in a local weather emergency.
He stated the main target ought to proceed to be on lowering the usage of fossil fuels, and that the discuss of banning geoengineering, cloud seeding and different types of climate modification by members of the Trump administration and a few lawmakers is extra political than scientific.
“It is not sensible — it reveals you that this isn’t an argument about information. It’s an argument about worldview,” he stated.
The president has taken many steps to undo efforts to deal with local weather change in current months, together with withdrawing from the Paris local weather accord, an settlement amongst some 200 nations to restrict world warming to below 2 levels Celsius (3.6 levels Fahrenheit).
The EPA has additionally eliminated a number of boundaries and rules that govern oil and fuel drilling within the U.S., and has stated it desires to repeal the endangerment discovering — a long-held authorized and scientific dedication that CO2 emissions hurt human well being and welfare, amongst different important adjustments.
Doricko, Rainmaker’s CEO, stated he was dissatisfied to see cloud seeding politicized within the wake of the Texas flood. He was shocked when he noticed that Rep. Greene had posted an image of his face on X — “insinuating considerably that cloud seeding, or I, was chargeable for the pure catastrophe in Texas, when any meteorologist or atmospheric scientist might let you know in any other case,” he stated.
“Human civilization is unintentionally modifying the climate and the local weather on a regular basis,” Doricko stated, together with by way of fossil gas emissions and concrete warmth islands that heat surrounding areas. “What Rainmaker is making an attempt to do is carry some intentionality to that, in order that we are able to modify the climate for our profit and intentionally.”
Doricko stated he’s additionally an advocate of extra clear reporting, extra stringent rules, and no matter else is required to construct belief with the general public about “a very consequential expertise.”
He stated he’ll proceed to interact with skeptics of the expertise in good religion.
“Cloud seeding is a water provide software, and whether or not you’re a farmer in a purple state or an environmentalist in a blue state, water is as nonpartisan because it will get,” he stated. “All people wants water.”
