In 2026, we received’t see terrorism incidents much like 9/11, when hijacked airplanes struck the World Commerce Middle, or the Oklahoma Metropolis bombing, when ammonium nitrate–packed vehicles leveled federal buildings. As a substitute, the subsequent act of terror will start with the buzzing sound of the drone rotors spinning at 5,000 rpm, audible solely seconds earlier than the swarm will attain its goal.
In recent times, drones have change into an integral a part of fashionable warfare. On the battlefield, we have undeniably entered the age of exact mass in battle, the place low-cost attributable drones, powered by extensively accessible industrial expertise, open software program, and AI, at the moment are essentially the most efficient weapons. They are often hidden in plain sight after which launched to destroy targets hundreds of miles away from energetic battlefields. In June 2025, as an example, they have been utilized by Ukraine to destroy 10 p.c of Russia’s bombers on the tarmac as a part of Operation Spider Net. That very same month, Israel additionally launched clandestine drone assaults from inside Iran to destroy navy and nuclear websites. In April, Houthi rebels used drones and cruise missiles to assault the USS Harry Truman—a Nimitz-class plane service—within the Purple Sea. The service swerved so arduous to keep away from being struck, it tumbled a $56 million F-18 off its deck.
It’s sure that in 2026 we are going to see a drone assault in the US, towards both civilian or navy targets.
Just like the assaults of 9/11, the shock will prove to not be a shock. The offensive and defensive energy of low-cost industrial drones was identified by the US navy as early as 2017. In that yr, Protection Innovation Unit, the Pentagon’s Silicon Valley Workplace, established the navy’s first industrial drone unit, with the help of the then–secretary of protection James Mattis. Named Rogue Squadron, it performed mock drone fights in parking tons and created the primary mass adoption program inside the navy for industrial drones, referred to as Blue UAS (unmanned aerial system).
But immediately, due to bureaucratic inertia and the accelerating drone functionality by international adversaries, the US stands defenseless. At present, no US navy set up can reliably repel a posh drone assault like Ukraine’s assault of Russian nuclear bombers. Our civilian infrastructure is even much less protected.
But the 2025 DoD finances has simply $350M for tactical stage UAS methods. With this funding, DoD is simply anticipating to area about 4,000 UASs, bringing the common price per system near $100,000. The bigger drone factories in Ukraine can produce hundreds of “first individual viewer” (FPV) drones per day, at a price of some hundred {dollars} a chunk. The Ukrainian navy delivers to the battlefield 200,000 FPV drones per thirty days and plans to develop manufacturing to 4,500,000 FPV drones per yr by the tip this yr.
