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Authorities shutdown now seen lasting three weeks. (0:17) Sam Altman will give the DevDay keynote for the world’s largest startup. (4:47) Bitcoin prime $125,000 for first time. (2:57)
The personal sector continues to cleared the path for Wall Road with the federal government shutdown getting into its second week.
Prediction market Kalshi now has the shutdown lasting almost 21 days (a 64% probability of its lasting greater than 15 days, 52% for greater than 20 days and 40% greater than 25 days).
Goldman Sachs economists say for every week of a shutdown, the direct impact of furloughed federal employees would scale back fourth-quarter annualized actual GDP progress (quarter-on-quarter) by about 0.15 share level. Reopening would lead to an equally sized constructive impact on progress within the first quarter, assuming the shutdown ends earlier than then.
If something can take the highlight from the shutdown, it’s the AI commerce. And the week kicks off with a significant occasion. OpenAI hosts its DevDay on Monday with CEO Sam Altman kicking off the occasion with a keynote at 1 p.m. ET. He will even take part in a fireplace chat with Apple designer Jony Ive at 7:15 p.m. ET.
No product releases have been teased, however there may be hypothesis the corporate might debut a long-rumored AI-powered browser (presumably named Aura) that may problem Google’s Chrome.
Microsoft-backed (NASDAQ:MSFT) OpenAI hit a non-public market valuation of $500 billion this previous week, making it the world’s most beneficial startup.
Additionally this week, the AI bulls at Wedbush reiterated that they see the tech bull market lasting one other 2-3 years and any worries a couple of tech bubble are “approach overdone,” with enterprise spending tendencies accelerating.
And to make sure we get the LLM perspective, ChatGPT instructed me: “I’m most wanting ahead to Sam Altman’s keynote, which ought to unveil what’s subsequent for GPT-5, multimodal instruments like Sora, and the brand new ‘Responses’ API that deepens agent capabilities. I’m additionally curious to see how OpenAI makes real-time, voice, and security instruments extra sensible for builders — the items that flip demos into day by day use.”
Seeking to earnings, 5 S&P 500 corporations will report Q3 outcomes this week. The highlights shall be PepsiCo (PEP) and Delta Air Traces (DAL) on Thursday.
Analysts count on Pepsi to report EPS of $2.26 on income of $23.86 billion. Activist investor Elliott Administration is looking for strategic modifications comparable to refranchising to enhance bottling inefficiencies. Jefferies mentioned a transfer to refranchise might sharpen the give attention to high-growth areas of the Pepsi portfolio.
Delta is forecast to submit EPS of $1.53 with income of $15.94 billion. SA analyst Dhierin Bechai says Delta is executing the enterprise higher than a lot of its friends whereas buying and selling at a reduction,” which creates an fascinating purchase alternative.
Additionally on the earnings calendar:
Constellation Manufacturers (STZ) reviews Monday.
On Tuesday, McCormick (MKC) points numbers.
Levi Strauss (LEVI) and Tilray (TLRY) be part of Pepsi and Delta on Thursday.
On the financial entrance, the shutdown seemingly robs merchants for numbers on the commerce stability and weekly jobless claims once more.
However on Wednesday the FOMC minutes of its final assembly shall be intently watched. Odds of two extra quarter-point fee cuts this yr topped 85%.
On Friday the College of Michigan releases its preliminary measure of October client sentiment. Final week the Convention Board’s measure of client confidence fell to a five-month low.
Within the information this weekend, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose via $125,000 for the primary time. The crypto has been up six of the final seven days, fueled by robust inflows into bitcoin ETFs and renewed institutional curiosity.
OPEC+ has agreed in precept to lift oil manufacturing by 137,000 barrels per day beginning in November. The transfer echoes the modest enhance made in October.
And Costco (COST) members will quickly get entry to blockbuster weight reduction medicines Wegovy and Ozempic at half the record worth.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) introduced plans to supply its common GLP-1 medicines to cash-paying members of Costco as a part of a brand new partnership with the pharmacy operations of the warehouse membership.
For earnings buyers, JPMorgan (JPM) goes ex-dividend on Monday, paying out on Halloween.
Greenback Basic (DG) goes ex-dividend on Tuesday, with an Oct. 21 payout date.
Oracle (ORCL) goes ex-dividend on Thursday, paying out on Oct. 23.
And dividend heavyweight AT&T (T) goes ex-dividend Friday, paying out on Nov. 3.
And within the Wall Road Analysis Nook, BofA strategist Michael Hartnett is predicting what investing themes shall be “in” and what shall be “out” within the second half of this decade.
The second half of the 2020s tilts towards safety, state intervention, demographics/tech shifts, and new asset performs — whereas globalization, Fed independence and outdated market darlings are seen as previous their peak.
People are “out” and robots are “in.” Fed independence provides technique to Fed deference, quantitative easing is “out” and yield curve management is “in,” the AI bull turns into the AI bubble and The Magnificent 7 make approach for China’s – Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi.
