By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports activities
We have a five-game slate for the Mountain West this weekend.
It will get began early on Saturday in Colorado Springs with the Falcons stepping out of convention play to host Military.
The 4 convention matchups give us slightly little bit of the whole lot.
We’ve got what appears to be an offensive shootout between UNLV and New Mexico. Wyoming and San Diego State will each deliver the defenses, whereas the offense could possibly be an afterthought.
Hawai’i and San Jose State will battle for a trophy, and in a little bit of a swap, it’s the Spartans who’re enjoying with their bowl hopes hanging by the thinnest of threads.
On the blue turf, the Broncos welcome a Fresno State squad that all of a sudden has extra questions than solutions within the face of turnover issues.
Here’s a take a look at all 5 video games with my picks straight-up and towards the unfold.
Military Black Knights at Air Power Falcons
Saturday, November 1
9:00 AM PT, CBS
Line: Air Power -1.5
Over/Underneath: 49.5
Both Air Power and the Black Knights are coming off bye weeks. Military fell to Tulane of their final recreation, and the Falcons knocked off Wyoming of their final contest, defeating an FBS foe for the primary time this season.
This one is large within the battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. A loss for the Falcons would get rid of them from rivalry following their earlier loss to Navy. An Military win would go away it as much as the Cadets’ season finale with the Midshipmen.
For Military, the offense runs via Cale Hellums. The junior QB leads the Knights with 613 yards on the bottom and has averaged 153 over the past two video games.
Hellums is the engine behind the nation’s fourth-ranked dashing offense, and that ought to preserve Air Power’s potent offense off the sector for a lot of the sport.
The Falcons have struggled towards the run, permitting 198.7 yards per recreation over the past three outings.
Military has been significantly better towards the run this season, however allowed Tulane to run for 141 final week, churning out 4.9 yards per carry, whereas UAB averaged 5.6 yards per tote towards them earlier this season.
Liam Szarka has run for greater than 100 yards in every of Air Power’s final 5 video games and gives the Falcons extra within the passing recreation than his reverse quantity on this one.
Air Power will rating factors towards Military; it comes down as to whether the Falcons can get sufficient stops. The Falcons have proven deficiencies towards energy dashing groups, and the Black Knights are positioned to take advantage of them.
This one stays shut, however I feel Military will get the win.
In opposition to the unfold: Military
Factors Complete: Underneath
Outright winner: Military
New Mexico Lobos at UNLV Rebels
Saturday, November 1
12:00 PM PT, MW Community
Line: UNLV -4.5
Over/Underneath: 61.5
UNLV owns the nation’s Seventeenth-most potent scoring offense, averaging 37.1 per recreation. New Mexico is permitting 24.8 factors per recreation, rating 76th within the nation.
New Mexico is unbeaten this season when scoring at the least 30 factors. When the Lobos have been held beneath 30, they’re 1-3. UNM probably wants to attain effectively greater than 30 to return away with a win.
The Lobos could possibly be in enterprise then, as a result of the Rebels’ protection has been abysmal, permitting 33.4 factors per outing. Solely 11 groups within the nation have allowed opponents to attain extra usually.
UNM has not precisely set the world on fireplace on offense this season, however the Lobos can actually transfer the ball.
Damon Bankston and Scottre Humphrey should not have any downside discovering room to run on the UNLV protection. The Rebels are permitting over six yards per carry this season, and people two backs have mixed to common 5.1 yards per carry.
The important thing when the Lobos have the ball is perhaps third downs. UNM is changing on 41.4% of their third downs, whereas UNLV has solely allowed a conversion on 29.1% of them, the ninth-best within the nation.
For all of their struggles on protection, in the case of the cash down, the Rebels are nonetheless getting it performed. If they’ll get the Lobos off the sector usually sufficient, they are going to be in good condition.
And that brings us again to that first level . . . UNLV’s scoring prowess towards the Lobo protection. If UNM stalls on third downs, then the Rebels will outscore them.
Anthony Colandrea has been excellent together with his arm and legs this season, and his decision-making with the ball has been masterful. Search for the Insurgent operating assault to do some high quality work with the combo of Colandrea and Jai’Den Thomas.
The Rebels will rating plenty of factors, and the Lobos might additionally, however UNLV wins in a shootout.
In opposition to the unfold: UNLV
Factors Complete: Over
Outright winner: UNLV
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos
Saturday, November 1
12:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: Boise State -17.5
Over/Underneath: 50.5
Get prepared for a showdown between one of many higher offenses within the convention and one of many higher defenses within the Mountain West when Boise State hosts Fresno State.
Just a few weeks in the past, this one had the texture of a possible convention title recreation preview, if not an elimination contest. That was just a few weeks in the past, and since then, the Broncos have gained three in a row by a median of 20.7 per recreation.
The Bulldogs have dropped two straight in that span, giving up 49 to CSU earlier than being shut out at dwelling final week by San Diego State, their first shutout within the Valley in 45 years.
EJ Warner was benched following his three interceptions towards Colorado State; Carson Conklin stepped in and threw a pair of picks within the loss to SDSU.
The Bulldogs have been suffering from turnovers all season lengthy, and their 11 interceptions rank third-to-last within the nation, whereas the workforce’s 16 whole giveaways are tied for the fourth most within the nation.
All this regardless of boasting a protection that has been about as opportunistic as any within the nation.
One workforce that has been much more opportunistic this season is Boise State. The Broncos are sixth within the nation with 16 takeaways, and their 11 interceptions are the eighth-most in America.
Maddux Madsen has solely thrown three picks in 4 convention video games.
It’s one other sellout in Boise, and the Bulldogs will wrestle to seek out any traction on offense. Boise State wins this one comfortably, even when the Fresno State protection makes issues troublesome.
In opposition to the unfold: Boise State
Factors Complete: Underneath
Outright winner: Boise State
Wyoming Cowboys at San Diego State Aztecs
Saturday, November 1
4:00 PM PT, CBS Sports activities Community
Line: San Diego State –10.5
Over/Underneath: 42.5
The Aztecs seem like disrupters this season, not solely within the convention race, but additionally as potential spoilers on the nationwide stage.
The reason being clear: This San Diego State protection is for actual.
The Aztecs have posted three shutouts this season, limiting opponents to only 10.4 factors per contest.
This week, that dominant protection will face an offense that may by no means be confused with the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. Wyoming is averaging 21.0 factors per recreation and has solely scored greater than 21 in two video games towards FBS opponents.
What the Cowboys lack in offense, they make up for on the opposite aspect of the ball. Whereas not as dominant as what now we have seen from the Aztecs, Wyoming has restricted opponents. UW is permitting simply 342 yards of offense and 19.8 factors per recreation.
Search for this one to be a slugfest.
The Aztecs have extra firepower on offense, and that will likely be evident on Saturday. The Aztec dashing assault has been good, and Fortunate Sutton is coming off a career-high 131 dashing yards towards Fresno State.
In order for you wide-open high-flying offenses, this one is just not for you. Search for San Diego State to win it with some room to spare in a low-scoring affair.
In opposition to the unfold: San Diego State
Factors Complete: Underneath
Outright winner: San Diego State
Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors at San Jose State Spartans
Saturday, November 1
7:30 PM PT, CBS Sports activities Community
Line: San Jose State –2.5
Over/Underneath: 57.5
The Dick Tomey Legacy Trophy will likely be on the road when the Spartans host the Rainbow Warriors on Saturday evening.
One in all these groups is already bowl eligible at 6-2, whereas the opposite is teetering on the verge of lacking out on the possibility to succeed in six wins this season.
Firstly of the season, most believed Hawai’i might be higher than 2-6 at this level, whereas San Jose State would already be bowl-eligible, having rolled via the opening half of the 2025 marketing campaign.
However right here we’re at the beginning of the ultimate month of the common season, and it’s Timmy Chang’s unit eying the postseason.
The Spartans, nonetheless, are the slight favorites on this one by advantage of the proverbial home-field benefit. The betting line additionally speaks to SJSU’s proficient roster, making the Spartans a menace to knock off anybody left on their schedule.
The Rainbow Warriors have made progress this season due to a protection that has improved significantly over latest years.
UH is limiting opponents to only 23.1 factors per recreation and 323.6 yards of whole offense. Each figures rank third within the Mountain West.
The Spartans’ struggles have stemmed from a protection that has not answered the decision sufficient this season, permitting the fourth-most factors within the convention. Their 425 yards allowed per recreation ranks 119th within the nation.
That suspect protection will likely be a difficulty on Saturday. Micah Alejado and the UH offense have been on fireplace in latest weeks.
The QB has thrown for 300+ yards and three-plus touchdowns in every of Hawaii’s final three video games whereas directing an offense that has averaged 39.7 factors, 390.3 passing yards, and 505.3 yards of whole offense in that three-game stretch.
The Warrior protection won’t permit this to be a shootout, and if the Spartans can’t cease the Hawaii offense, it will likely be an extended day for Ken Niumatalolo towards his alma mater.
In opposition to the unfold: Hawai’i
Factors Complete: Underneath
Outright winner: Hawai’i
writes about numerous matters for SuperWest sports activities, together with stats and information, faculty sports activities, and motorsports. He additionally based and runs the Sports activities and Leisure Analysis Heart (SERC).
