By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports activities
All 12 Mountain West groups are in motion in convention video games this weekend.
The primary quarter of the season has already seen San Diego State surpass its win complete from final season, because the Aztecs are off to a 4-1 begin after going simply 3-9 a season in the past.
SDSU is getting it finished with a stifling protection that’s permitting over 160 fewer yards per sport this season than they did in 2024.
A pair of groups can get bowl eligible with wins this week: Fresno State and UNLV. The Rebels stay undefeated on the season, averaging 35.6 factors per sport, and have now scored a minimum of 20 factors in every of their final 27 regular-season video games.
The new begin for the Mountain West this season features a 3-1 document at dwelling in opposition to energy opponents.
Here’s a have a look at the six-game slate for the MW this week.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Colorado State Rams
Friday, October 10
6:00 PM PT, CBS Sports activities Community
Line: Fresno State –6.5
Over/Beneath: 46.5
Fresno State has a shot at getting bowl eligible for the fifth straight season. Colorado State has a shot at turning round its season.
The Bulldogs have seemed like a favourite to win the Mountain West over the primary month and a half of the season, whereas the Rams have been caught in impartial for the opening stretch of 2025.
Turnovers can be key on this one. Fresno State is seventh within the nation with 11 takeaways this season, whereas Colorado State has given the ball away seven occasions in 2025.
The one benefit for the Rams is that the Bulldogs are getting interceptions; their 11 on the season are the second most within the nation. CSU doesn’t put the ball within the air a lot, however they’ve put it on the bottom with fumbles.
The Rams misplaced 5 fumbles on the 12 months, greater than all however 5 groups nationally.
Fresno State appears to be like poised to problem for the league crown, they usually’ll get the highway win.
Towards the unfold: Fresno State
Factors Whole: Beneath
Outright winner: Fresno State
Air Power Falcons at UNLV Rebels
Saturday, October 11
12:30 PM PT, CBS Sports activities Community
Line: UNLV –6.5
Over/Beneath: 67.5
Much like our Friday evening contest, this one options two groups seemingly going in several instructions. The Rebels seem like the most effective groups within the league, whereas the Falcons seem like they’re in for an extended season.
Additionally just like the Friday sport, this sport contains a workforce that’s among the many greatest within the nation at creating turnovers.
UNLV leads the nation with a turnover margin of +1.6 per sport, and its 13 pressured turnovers are essentially the most within the nation, with 9 of them coming off interceptions. The Rebels have additionally recovered 4 fumbles this season.
Air Power is destructive within the turnover division this season. And whereas they’ve solely thrown 4 interceptions, in addition they have the third fewest cross makes an attempt of any workforce within the nation.
The Falcons have thrown an interception on 4.7% of their cross makes an attempt. The Rebels are getting a decide on 4.4% of opponents’ cross makes an attempt.
UNLV has allowed some yards on the bottom this season, so the Falcons would possibly get some traction on offense. The over would look engaging, however 67.5 appears to be like method too excessive for my liking.
The Rebels are considered one of simply 11 remaining unbeaten groups within the nation, having gone 5-0 for the primary time since 1974. The 5 wins might not have been footage of perfection, however they’re getting the job finished.
The Rebels won’t fall at dwelling to a struggling Falcons squad.
Towards the unfold: UNLV
Factors Whole: Beneath
Outright winner: UNLV
San Jose State Spartans at Wyoming Cowboys
Saturday, October 11
4:00 PM PT, CBS Sports activities Community
Line: San Jose State –2.5
Over/Beneath: 49.5
San Jose State introduced lots of expectations into 2025, primarily based on he method the Spartans rebounded from a gradual begin in convention play in 2024. However these expectations have been tempered a bit by the Spartans’ gradual begin this season.
Can SJSU discover a continued spark in league play?
Whereas San Jose State has began the season slowly, Wyoming has began every sport slowly. The Cowboys have scored solely 26 first-half factors, with 17 of them coming within the win over Northern Iowa.
Towards FBS opponents, UW is getting outscored 48-9 within the opening half-hour of video games. It’s a far more aggressive seven-point deficit within the second half of video games.
In a sport like this, it may come all the way down to QB play. Kaden Anderson has struggled this season for the Cowboys, whereas Walker Eget appears to be discovering his rhythm for the Spartans.
Eget accomplished 86.7% of his throws for 334 yards and three TDs final week. Within the earlier two video games, the QB has thrown for 807 yards with six TD passes and no interceptions.
San Jose State continues to seem like a workforce turning issues round, they usually get the highway win at Wyoming.
Towards the unfold: San Jose State
Factors Whole: Over
Outright winner: San Jose State
New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos
Saturday, October 11
6:45 PM PT, FS1
Line: Boise State –16.5
Over/Beneath: 59.5
With the 21-point loss by the hands of Notre Dame, Boise State concluded its nonconference schedule with a 2-2 mark in opposition to opponents not from the Mountain West.
The Broncos will solely play convention video games from this level on, and that could be a good factor for Boise State. Already with a win over Air Power this season, Boise State has now gained 28 of its final 31 in opposition to convention opponents.
New Mexico has already fallen as soon as in convention play this season and is now simply 10-53 in Mountain West video games since 2017.
Each enter this one with equivalent 3-2 marks, however the applications are something however equivalent.
Boise State is 14th within the nation with a MW-leading 479 yards of offense per outing. The Lobos are surrendering 391 yards per sport to rank seventh within the league and 96th within the nation.
The Bronco offense behind Maddux Madsen ought to be capable of transfer the ball. The QB must restrict the errors that plagued him in opposition to Notre Dame, as he threw 4 interceptions within the loss.
New Mexico is 126th within the nation in opposition to the cross and has pressured simply three interceptions in 5 video games.
This looks like a sport during which the Boise offense ought to be capable of do nearly something it desires.
Jason Eck might flip issues round at UNM, however they don’t get the breakthrough win this week. Nevertheless, they are going to preserve it inside the 16.5 factors they’re being given.
Towards the unfold: New Mexico
Factors Whole: Beneath
Outright winner: Boise State
San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, October 11
7:30 PM PT, CBS Sports activities Community
Line: San Diego State –7.5
Over/Beneath: 41.5
San Diego State has gained three in a row and. At 4-1, the Aztecs are off to their greatest begin to a season since opening 2021 with a 7-0 mark.
For essentially the most half, the SDSU has been getting it finished this season with a suffocating protection.
In the latest win over Colorado State, it was the offense that obtained unleashed, out-gaining the Rams 540-355 for its first 500-yard offensive sport for the reason that 2020 season.
So, the Aztecs have shut out a few opponents and gained a sport, placing up 45 factors and gutting out a 6-3 slugfest. In brief, the Aztecs are profitable in a wide range of methods.
Nevada, then again, is coming off a detailed loss to Fresno State, dropping them to 1-4 on the season, with the lone win over their FCS opponent.
Nevada is 91st within the nation in opposition to the cross, and Jayden Denegal is coming off his greatest sport as an Aztec, throwing for profession highs of 256 yards and two touchdowns, regardless of not taking part in a snap within the fourth quarter.
It appears to be like as if Sean Lewis’s offense is lastly beginning to soar, and the Pack might not have any solutions for it this week.
Towards the unfold: San Diego State
Factors Whole: Beneath
Outright winner: San Diego State
Utah State Aggies at Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Saturday, October 11
9:00 pm PT, MW Community
Line: Hawai’i -11.5
Over/Beneath: 58.5
Who had this one as a key matchup within the convention race initially of the season? I’d enterprise to guess not lots of people.
However right here we’re within the second weekend of October, and the Aggies and ‘Bows each should view this one as a must-win to maintain their MW title hopes alive.
Certain, it’s early within the season, however no workforce within the convention has seemed dominant. Right here we discover a pair of groups with profitable information total and every with a convention win beneath their belt.
UH additionally has a loss, falling in a detailed one to Fresno State. With a 2-0 begin to MW play, the Aggies have an opportunity to safe a coveted highway win.
Utah State has gotten some excellent play from QB Bryson Barnes. Solely 33 gamers within the nation have run for a minimum of six TDs this season, and Barnes is considered one of them—and considered one of simply 11 QBs nationally to have completed that.
UH has been fairly stingy in opposition to the run this season, permitting simply 3.8 yards per carry. They might have to make use of a spy on this one and that would open some issues within the passing sport for the Aggies, who’ve discovered good stability all season.
Utah State is 3-0 at dwelling however 0-2 in highway video games, whereas permitting 320 yards per sport by the air in these two losses. Now, each of these highway journeys have been to ranked SEC opponents, so it’s laborious to glean an excessive amount of from these splits.
Hawai’i will not be on the extent of Vandy and Texas A&M, however they’ll sling it round with the most effective of them. Micah Alejado appears to be like wholesome coming off a 457-yard efficiency at Air Power, a 44-35 win for UH.
Look for the same shootout on this sport. I anticipate lots of factors from each groups, however I just like the offensive firepower of the house workforce slightly bit extra.
Hawaii wins an thrilling one that’s value staying up for on Saturday Evening.
Towards the unfold: Hawai’i
Factors Whole: Over
Outright winner: Hawai’i
writes about numerous matters for SuperWest sports activities, together with stats and information, faculty sports activities, and motorsports. He additionally based and runs the Sports activities and Leisure Analysis Heart (SERC).
