Joel Klatt
Lead College Football Analyst
Thinking about how the 2025 college football season is going to play out? Well, I had a pretty good year with my picks last season, so you might want to listen up.
I correctly predicted six of the eight College Football Playoff quarterfinalists and three of the four semifinalists in my preseason predictions last season — not to mention I predicted that Ohio State would win it all before the year began.
Now, we’ve all got a clean slate for our predictions, and I want to try mapping out the 12-team CFP field again. Remember, this year it’s straight seeding, so that’s a new obstacle we’ll have to figure out.
Let’s start with my conference championship game predictions before getting into how I think the 2025 CFP will play out.
Conference championship games
Big Ten: Penn State beats Ohio State
There’s a chance Ohio State will be undefeated at this point of the season, as I think the Buckeyes win the first matchup between these two teams, but if Penn State makes it to the conference championship game, it likely would’ve defeated Oregon. However, coach James Franklin still has to get the Ohio State monkey off his back. Dealing with immense pressure, I think Franklin’s team plays its best football in this game and beats Ohio State.
SEC: Texas beats Georgia
Let’s say Texas loses at Georgia during the regular season. Do you think the Bulldogs would be able to beat the Longhorns twice in one season? I know they did last year, but this Texas team is different. It’s balanced with a great defense and quarterback Arch Manning would have a full season under his belt by this point. Most importantly, though, Texas’ offensive line should be developed by this point.
ACC: Clemson beats Miami (Fla.)
Finally, Miami makes it to the ACC title game under coach Mario Cristobal. The Canes struggle in big games, though, while Dabo Swinney’s Tigers squad has veteran experience and will be battle-tested with games against LSU and South Carolina earlier in the season.
Big 12: Kansas State beats Utah
I think Utah is going to have a great year, so don’t be surprised if it makes a bit of a run, but I like Kansas State a bit more. The Wildcats have been the picture of consistency in this conference, which they’ve got at quarterback as well.
The 12-team CFP bracket
I presume that the Big Ten and SEC champs will get the top two seeds, so I’ll go with the order of how I ranked Penn State and Texas in my preseason top 25, giving the Nittany Lions the edge there.
Clemson gets my No. 3 seed. I think Clemson is — at worst — a one-loss ACC champion this year. Ohio State gets the No. 4 seed, as I think the Buckeyes have a great year and might even enter the Big Ten Championship Game undefeated. That would help them get a first-round bye.
Going through the non-bye teams, remember that Georgia only has three true road games this season. I also think the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns earlier in the season, so they would have that win on their résumé. I think they lose at some point, though, in the regular season, which is why Ohio State gets the edge over them in the seeding.
Oregon gets into the bracket for the second straight year, but as the No. 6 seed this time. I see the Ducks losing at Penn State in September. That might be their only regular-season loss, but it might be enough to keep them out of the Big Ten Championship Game. So, not good enough to get a top-five seed, but good enough to be the highest-seeded team that didn’t play in conference championship game weekend.
As for Notre Dame, it should have the record to make the CFP, but its résumé will prevent it from getting a higher seed than No. 7. I can see the Fighting Irish going 11-1, which would mean that they only have one marquee win. We’ll see what the Boise State win might look like for them as the year goes along, though.
Kansas State gets included in the bracket with the No. 8 seed. I think the Wildcats will be a one- or two-loss team, but playing in the Big 12 will likely hurt their seeding.
It gets really interesting after Kansas State at No. 8, as we try to figure out the last three at-large bids. I’d be surprised if any of the first seven teams I mentioned weren’t in the CFP, and I think the last three teams trying to make it as at-large teams face an interesting conundrum. All offseason, many of us have said that if Team X or Team Y from the SEC or the Big Ten goes 9-3, they have to get into the CFP because of their schedule. However, as we start to predict the year, we’re naturally going to have too many 10-2 teams that a 9-3 team would have to pass over.
So, I’m looking at four teams for those final three spots: Alabama, LSU, Michigan and Miami. I think all those teams will be 10-2 (or 10-3, in Miami’s case) and we’ll have some sort of Royal Rumble between those four teams. I think Alabama would get the edge here because, in this scenario, I’d imagine that it would’ve beaten LSU at home in the regular season. So, the Crimson Tide come in at No. 9.
As we try to determine the 10th and 11th seeds, we’ve got to ask where are the big wins, and who are the losses? In this scenario, I think LSU would have losses to Alabama and Clemson, so it would only have losses to CFP teams. Let’s give the Tigers the 10th seed, which gives us a fun first-round matchup (more on that shortly).
I don’t think Michigan or Miami will have a win that jumps out when we compare their résumés in this exercise, but I have a feeling that Michigan is going to be ranked higher than Miami if both finish the season with 10 wins (because one of the Wolverines’ losses would be to Ohio State). In that case, I think Michigan would be ranked over Miami heading into conference championship weekend, and why would the Hurricanes jump the Wolverines after losing a game? So, Michigan gets the last at-large bid and is the 11th seed.
Finally, Boise State gets in the tourney as the non-power-conference representative. While it’s got to replace Ashton Jeanty, coach Spencer Danielson has done a really good job there and quarterback Maddux Madsen returns. This program is firing on all cylinders and if it wins the Mountain West again, it should be in a good spot to make the CFP.
First round
No. 5 Georgia beats No. 12 Boise State
We know how this should go. The Bulldogs haven’t lost in Athens, Georgia since 2019, and home teams dominated in the first round of the CFP last year. I find it hard to see this game bucking that trend.
No. 6 Oregon beats No. 11 Michigan
This would be an incredible atmosphere, and Oregon finally gets the home CFP game it should’ve gotten as the No. 1 overall seed last year. I think coach Dan Lanning’s squad gets it done, as I like new starting quarterback Dante Moore.
No. 7 Notre Dame beats No. 10 LSU
Coach Brian Kelly returning to South Bend in the CFP? Yes! When I made my bracket, I didn’t try to rig it to make the matchup happen, it just happened naturally. Don’t you want to see this, too? I live for rich storylines like this. That Notre Dame fanbase would live for this moment, too. That’s why I think there’s zero chance LSU wins this game.
No. 9 Alabama beats No. 8 Kansas State
Finally, a road team wins a CFP game at a campus site. Coach Kalen DeBoer needs this win, and I like that he’s reunited with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb this year as they’ve had plenty of success together in the past.
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Penn State beats No. 9 Alabama
Even with some of the momentum Alabama would likely get from its first-round win, Penn State really needs this game. Could you imagine if Penn State lost in the quarterfinals? The Nittany Lions have to get over the hump in games like these, beating marquee teams. Penn State has more experience, and it was just in this spot a year ago.
No. 2 Texas beats No. 7 Notre Dame
This would also be a heck of a game. I just love this Texas team, though. Its defense is phenomenal and might be the best in the country. Manning should be playing exceptional football by this point, too. I’m not sure if Notre Dame has enough to beat this Texas team, either.
No. 3 Clemson beats No. 6 Oregon
These two teams match up well, except in one area: experience at quarterback. Cade Klubnik is my No. 1-ranked quarterback in the sport entering the year after he showed tremendous improvement last season. This is also a balanced Clemson team, which should be good enough to beat Oregon.
No. 4 Ohio State beats No. 5 Georgia
Can we please put quarterfinal games on campus sites? This game needs to be played in Columbus, Ohio rather than at some neutral bowl game site. That aside, I can’t get my head around Georgia and what its ceiling is for this season. By this point, Ohio State should have its quarterback situation settled. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia should have his unit’s situation figured out. I think this is a tight game, but Ohio State has the two best players in the sport in Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs, which should help give it the edge.
Semifinals
No. 4 Ohio State beats No. 1 Penn State
In this scenario, this would be the third time these teams meet this season. Ultimately, I don’t think Penn State would be able to beat Ohio State twice in roughly 30 days. If you give coach Ryan Day the opportunity to adjust, he’s going to. This would be a devastating loss for Penn State, as I think it needs to get to the national championship game.
No. 3 Clemson beats No. 2 Texas
This would have the potential to be an all-time great game. These two teams are very similar in talent, with great quarterbacks and defenses. Ultimately, I trust the more experienced quarterback. Klubnik, Swinney and that defense have the overall soundness to get the job done in the semis, helping the Tigers reach the national title game.
National championship game
No. 3 Clemson beats No. 4 Ohio State
Ohio State should be excellent this season, but going back-to-back is tough. It was made even tougher by the fact that it lost 14 players to the 2025 NFL Draft, including its starting quarterback, while two coordinators also departed.
Clemson, on the other hand, is returning many of its top players from last year. I recently ranked three of its players in my top 10 players in the sport for the upcoming season. It also has a coach that’s done it before and an experienced quarterback. The defense might be the best in the country.
Ultimately, Swinney gets his third national championship and proves there’s still a way to win his way in this ever-evolving college football landscape. It would also mean Swinney would join Nick Saban as one of the only coaches to win multiple national championships with different cycles of recruits. That’s very difficult to do.
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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