U.S President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington, DC, on Feb. 13, 2025.
Andrew Caballero-reynolds | Afp | Getty Pictures
U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday introduced 25% duties on imports from India and an unspecified “penalty,” however the nation has thus far appeared unfazed by tariff threats.
Even because the U.S. introduced offers with different international locations, reminiscent of with Japan that addressed sticking factors on higher market entry for American autos and agricultural merchandise, India didn’t rush into an settlement.
The nation has resisted higher market entry for American agricultural merchandise to guard its native farmers, who type a large voting bloc. In its commerce cope with the U.Ok., signed final week, India managed to safeguard its most delicate agricultural sectors from tariff concessions.
India isn’t “backing off” as a result of their exports to the U.S. represent a small a part of their economic system and it can’t afford to open its agricultural sector to U.S. firms, stated Carlos Casanova, senior economist at UBP. America’s items imports from India totaled $87.4 billion in 2024, in accordance with U.S. authorities knowledge.
India’s Commerce and Business Minister Piyush Goyal has acknowledged that the sector was delicate to India in an interview with CNBC final week.
“We’re all the time very delicate to the pursuits of our farmers, the pursuits of our [Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises], and can make sure that our areas of concern are effectively protected,” Goyal stated.
The bilateral commerce settlement between India and the U.Ok. “set a tone to all of the Western powers” that New Delhi is able to commerce by itself phrases, Sameep Shastri, vice chairman of the BRICS Chamber of Commerce and Business, advised CNBC.
Harsha Vardhan Agarwal, president of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Business stated in an announcement that whereas the U.S. duties will affect India’s exports, “we hope that this imposition of upper tariffs will likely be a short-term phenomenon and {that a} everlasting commerce deal between the 2 sides will likely be finalised quickly.”
Analysts advised CNBC earlier than the most recent tariff announcement that Washington had good causes to finalize an settlement sooner fairly than later with India.
“Strategically, the U.S. has little curiosity in alienating India. It sees India as a powerful associate that may form the Indo-Pacific panorama,” Harsh V. Pant, Vice President of Research and Overseas Coverage at Observer Analysis Basis, advised CNBC.
Strategic hedge in opposition to China
Bringing manufacturing again to the U.S., particularly from China, has been a central tenet of Trump’s financial coverage.
Because the Trump administration is essentially centered on countering China’s arrival on the worldwide stage, India represents a possible different to China in international manufacturing, analysts advised CNBC.
“We nonetheless anticipate India to stay a beneficiary of the China plus one technique, as diversification is a much bigger driver of this pattern,” market analysis agency Asia Perception stated in a word.
India’s function in managing this nice energy rivalry “very, very, essential,” stated Pant.
As America “positions itself in opposition to China’s attain into international provide chains,” shifting manufacturing to India turns into a pure “compromise”, and may even complement the shift again into the U.S.,” Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and technique at Mizuho Financial institution, stated.
For instance, the U.S. may management a few of the increased finish of the manufacturing chain, which requires extra know-how and expert labor, whereas India “enhances it with cheaper labor,” Varathan added.
In doing so, India may be capable to “reduce China out and place the U.S. extra strategically,” all whereas strolling the diplomatic tightrope, added Varathan.
Strolling the BRICS tightrope
India’s function within the BRICS, a bunch of 10 rising economies, which incorporates Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, may additionally give New Delhi “a level of flexibility in U.S.-India offers,” Observer Analysis Basis’s Pant stated.
In response to the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace, the bloc goals to problem Western-led international financial establishments and cut back the dominance of the U.S. greenback within the international economic system.
On July 6, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a further 10% tariff on international locations that align with the “Anti-American insurance policies of BRICS,” simply as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was on a high-profile go to to Brazil for a BRICS summit.
Trump repeated his risk over every week later, saying on July 18 that he would “hit [BRICS] very, very exhausting” in the event that they ever “actually type in a significant approach.” “We are able to by no means let anybody play video games with us,” he added.
Inside BRICS, India is dealing with rising stress from China, which sees New Delhi as “competing for a management function” within the bloc, in accordance with Mizuho Financial institution’s Varathan. As such, it seems that India can be helpful to the U.S. as a counterbalance to China within the BRICS.
Trump has additionally claimed that BRICS needs to “take over the greenback” by the creation of another reserve foreign money, regardless of denials from members of the bloc.
This might be one other bargaining chip in India’s negotiation arsenal with the U.S., Varathan stated, as India may work to finally “persuade Trump that they don’t seem to be on board with the plan for an alternate foreign money.”
He added that India may concentrate on what it could possibly provide to the U.S., which could incentivize Trump to “deal with them somewhat higher as a result of he sees them as being aligned.”
India’s Plan B
India has been pushing for extra commerce offers even because it continues to barter with the U.S. Sarang Shidore, director of the worldwide South program on the Quincy Institute, identified in emailed feedback that that is a part of India’s “elevated flip towards a multi-alignment technique.”
In addition to the cope with the UK, India is in superior talks on commerce agreements with Maldives, the EU, and extra, all whereas “retaining its sturdy hyperlink with Washington as its largest international associate,” in accordance with Shidore.
This diversification offers India leverage, each on the negotiating desk and in navigating international financial shocks. Increased tariffs or stress on troublesome concessions, may immediate India to speed up offers elsewhere, thereby softening the blow.
Greater than only a hedging tactic, Shidore thinks this strategy displays India’s broader worldview: A rising energy that goals for multilateralism whereas “championing the International South.”
