Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has conceded defeat in a national referendum aimed at overhauling the country’s judicial system, turning the vote into a test of her leadership.
With 78% of ballots counted, 54.1% of voters rejected the reform by choosing “No,” while 45.9% supported it with a “Yes” vote, according to data from the Italian Interior Ministry.
Meloni’s First Major Electoral Loss
This outcome marks Meloni’s most significant setback since she assumed power in late 2022 and represents her initial defeat in a nationwide ballot. The result could undermine her authority ahead of the 2027 general election.
In a social media address, Meloni stated, “We will continue to go on as we have always done, with the same responsibility, determination and respect for Italy.” She expressed regret, calling it “a missed opportunity to modernize Italy.”
Potential Impact on Leadership and Reforms
Federico Santi, a senior Europe analyst at Eurasia Group, notes that the loss raises questions about Meloni’s reelection chances in 2027. It may also jeopardize her wider constitutional reform plans, including efforts to strengthen the prime minister’s powers.
Italian bonds maintained gains against safer German debt, narrowing the spread to 86 basis points—down six basis points—after earlier widening due to volatility in European Central Bank rate expectations linked to Middle East tensions.
Details of the Proposed Judicial Overhaul
The referendum sought to separate career paths for judges and prosecutors while introducing a new disciplinary court. Supporters, including Meloni and her allies, claimed the changes would enhance fairness and curb internal politicization.
Critics argued the reforms would erode judicial independence and increase government influence over the courts.
Reactions and Broader Challenges
Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi remarked, “I know in person how painful it is to lose a constitutional referendum. When a leader loses their magic touch, everyone starts to doubt.”
The defeat highlights strains in Italy’s ruling coalition—comprising Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forza Italia—amid rising energy costs, stagnant living standards, sluggish growth, and a heavy public debt burden that limits fiscal options.
Historical Precedents
National referendums have toppled past Italian leaders, even on technical issues. In 2016, Matteo Renzi resigned shortly after voters rejected his constitutional reforms. Similarly, UK Prime Minister David Cameron stepped down following the Brexit vote.
Although Meloni initially avoided tying her fortunes to the judicial vote, tightening polls prompted her to invest political effort in urging a “Yes” outcome.
