Henry McKenna
NFL Reporter
Invoice Belichick can inform everybody that he would not care concerning the NFL’s all-time wins file. Do not imagine him. He should.
It is the file that might cement him as the best coach of all time — past dispute. He’d have essentially the most Tremendous Bowl victories and essentially the most wins. What else would the GOAT want on his résumé?
And Belichick was solely 15 wins away when the New England Patriots fired him after the 2023 season. To make issues worse, the opposite 31 NFL groups confirmed little curiosity in Belichick over the previous two hiring cycles. He’d been tantalizingly near a fairy-tale ending, however now that he is teaching in faculty at North Carolina, the 73-year-old Belichick appears far-off from reaching his final aim.
Regardless of what number of video games Invoice Belichick wins at North Carolina, it will not get him any nearer to his final aim: changing into the NFL’s all-time winningest coach. (Photograph by Peyton Williams/Getty Photographs)
On Jan. 11, 2023, Patriots proprietor Robert Kraft introduced he was transferring on from Belichick after a 4-13 season, his third below-.500 file in his ultimate 4 years in New England. As Tom Brady thrived in Tampa Bay, even profitable a Tremendous Bowl with the Buccaneers in his first season post-Patriots, Belichick’s act wore skinny in New England. Media, followers and gamers have been turning on him. Kraft determined to comply with the court docket of public opinion.
WHAT IF the Patriots hadn’t fired Invoice Belichick?
Did he have to go? After 24 years with Belichick, Kraft might have stood by the coach.
As tough because it obtained for the Patriots, it stands to motive that arguably the best coach in NFL historical past might have been given yet one more probability to drag the crew out of its tailspin. And with hindsight being 20-20, the Patriots didn’t enhance after firing Belichick. Jerod Mayo led New England to a different 4-13 season final yr and was dismissed. That’s how Mike Vrabel ended up with the job for 2025.
But when we play the what-if sport, if the Patriots had caught with Belichick, I believe they might have been a completely totally different soccer crew in 2024 — and in 2025. I believe Belichick might need even used that 2024 season to show the franchise round. And through this coming season, the Patriots would have been in place to get the wins he wanted, and so badly wished, to move Don Shula because the all-time winningest NFL coach.
Right here’s how.
Patriots rent Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator
Belichick and Josh McDaniels might have reunited in New England for one more time if the Patriots had stayed the course with their longtime coach. (Photograph by Ethan Miller/Getty Photographs)
McDaniels is definitely the crew’s present OC. However he wasn’t final yr. The Patriots rode with Alex Van Pelt, whom Mayo employed. Kraft loves McDaniels, and so it makes excellent sense that, with OC Invoice O’Brien leaving for Boston School after a troublesome 2023 season in New England, Belichick would scoop up McDaniels — but once more.
And but once more, McDaniels would show he is among the best coordinators within the NFL, even when he cannot make it work as a head coach.
Belichick truly “burns some money” on key free brokers
Again in 2024, Mayo obtained into sizzling water for telling the media that the Patriots have been “able to burn some money” in free company. He walked again his feedback and New England in the end had a quiet offseason — electing to not use the boatload of money that Belichick had been saving.
But when Kraft had determined to carry onto Belichick, then the Patriots might need dealt with issues in another way. As a result of Belichick in all probability had a plan for the 2025 offseason. That was why he’d been saving.
Very like New England did in actuality, Belichick would’ve retained sort out Michael Onwenu and security Kyle Dugger. He could not have retained operating again Rhamondre Stevenson — and that is as a result of I genuinely surprise if Belichick would have chased Saquon Barkley.
After Barkley left the Giants for the Eagles, Belichick expressed his disbelief that New York had even let him hit free company. “He was their finest participant,” Belichick advised “The Pat McAfee Present.” I think Belichick would’ve achieved every little thing he might need to get Barkley into the Patriots’ Purple, White and Blue. It is exhausting to think about Barkley choosing the Patriots over the Eagles, however I believe Belichick might have made it a actually robust alternative for the star operating again. And if not Barkley, what about Derrick Henry? That 2024 free-agent operating again class was loaded, and I might see the Patriots bringing in a giant identify on the RB place.
And I do not suppose Belichick would have stopped there. A few of his favourite free-agent tendencies have been: 1) reuniting with former Patriots who’d misplaced favor elsewhere and a couple of) stealing younger, proficient gamers from divisional rivals. I might, for instance, see the Patriots bringing again Professional Bowl nook Stephon Gilmore. I might additionally see them focusing on edge Andrew Van Ginkel and heart Connor Williams, a pair of former Dolphins (who landed with the Vikings and Seahawks, respectively).
Patriots draft QB Bo Nix and first-round LT Tyler Guyton after a blockbuster take care of the Giants within the 2024 NFL Draft
New York was in love with Drake Maye. Everybody knew that. However after New England chosen the North Carolina QB at No. 3 total final yr, it was additionally clear throughout Belichick’s in-draft evaluation on “The Pat McAfee Present” that he wasn’t in love with Maye. Belichick was, nonetheless, effusive (by Belichick’s requirements) in praising Oregon QB Bo Nix throughout that very same draft present.
“It appears to be like like he’s fairly — no one’s NFL-ready — however I’d say of the school quarterbacks, he’s in all probability fairly near being NFL-ready,” Belichick stated of Nix whereas chatting with Broncos coach Sean Payton. “And such as you stated, the most effective quarterback within the pocket. The most effective quarterback within the conditions. There’s rather a lot to love about this child. And he wins.”
So Belichick would work out methods to win the draft — in his personal controversial approach. (It’s the one approach he knew methods to run the draft.) Even with a league-wide consensus concerning the prime three quarterbacks — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Maye — Belichick would take a suggestion from the Giants to maneuver again from No. 3 to sixth total. Within the course of, the coach would’ve gotten the No. 6 decide and New York’s 2025 first-rounder, amongst different belongings.
At No. 6, the Patriots might snag Nix, who would match properly into McDaniels’ system.
“Nix has performed a whole lot of soccer, and he’s performed a whole lot of good soccer. It type of felt just like the brief passing sport was a product of the system, however he can positively get the ball down the sector,” Belichick stated on ESPN.
I don’t suppose Belichick would’ve stopped his wheeling and dealing there.
The category of free-agent tackles was weak in 2024. So I think Belichick would have swapped his excessive second-round decide and his newly acquired draft belongings from the Giants to maneuver again into the primary spherical to nab a left sort out. Arizona’s Jordan Morgan and Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton have been each inside hanging distance for New England. I like Guyton, whose athletic profile compares favorably to a different former Patriots first-round sort out, Nate Solder. From Solder to Trent Brown to Sebastian Vollmer, Belichick cherished mountains at sort out.
New England had been speaking to San Francisco about buying Aiyuk earlier than the 49ers signed the star receiver to an extension final August. San Francisco reportedly was keen to simply accept New England’s provide: a 2025 second-round decide, 2026 fourth-round decide and veteran wideout Kendrick Bourne. The Patriots then would’ve needed to ink Aiyuk to a considerable new deal.
However Aiyuk balked on the thought of becoming a member of New England in flux.
What if Belichick had been there to persuade the All-Professional receiver?
The offense would have seemed completely totally different in 2024 beneath Belichick’s imaginative and prescient. Perhaps he might have satisfied Aiyuk to crew up with a formidable free-agent class, McDaniels, Nix and a younger left sort out.
With a robust rookie season, Bo Nix helps the Patriots get again into the NFL’s center class
New England’s protection would look stronger beneath Belichick than it did with Mayo. It’s exhausting to think about the Patriots making the playoffs final season, even with the changes to the roster that I’ve offered. However there could be a groundswell of optimism if Nix seemed as spectacular as he did with the Broncos. He completed his rookie season in Denver with 3,775 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. If he might match that in New England, Belichick would maintain his job for one more yr. And so the Patriots might end the 2024 season with, say, eight wins — an unlimited enchancment on what truly occurred (4 wins).
Would Belichick clinch the all-time wins file in 2025? Would the Patriots return to Tremendous Bowl rivalry?
After an eight-win season, Belichick would’ve been simply seven wins shy of breaking Shula’s file.
In that case, 2025 could be his yr.
However not earlier than he put a couple of ending touches on New England’s roster in the course of the offseason. Coming off an 8-9 file, the Patriots would have two picks within the prime 15 of the 2025 draft, together with a possible top-five decide from the Giants. (Drake Maye would have helped New York final season, however doubtless not sufficient to maneuver the Giants out of the highest 5, the place the Patriots landed with him.) New England would don’t have any scarcity of choices for playmakers on either side of the ball. However I would wager that Belichick would have his eyes on edge Abdul Carter and/or DT Mason Graham within the prime 5. Then, round fifteenth, you possibly can wager the Patriots would have curiosity in linebacker Jalon Walker, receiver Emeka Egbuka and guard Gray Zabel.
And the Patriots would have the funds for to spend freely on free brokers, even when they would not have the identical haul as this yr beneath Vrabel. There’s a whole lot of optimism round Vrabel’s Patriots after the crew’s busy offseason. It is easy to think about an analogous optimism round New England on this alternate-universe Belichick crew.
He’d be again within the sport on protection. His offense could be on the rise beneath Nix, McDaniels, Aiyuk and others. It is likely to be classic Belichick — reasonably than expired Belichick.
WHAT IF Invoice Belichick hadn’t been fired by the Patriots? We would not simply be speaking about Belichick getting his file and New England returning to the playoffs in 2025. We would even be speaking about when the Patriots will win the Tremendous Bowl once more.
Earlier than becoming a member of FOX Sports activities as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years masking the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports activities Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Comply with him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
Extra Sports activities Historical past “WHAT IFs?”:
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