By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports activities
As we enter the ultimate week of Mountain West contests, a number of groups nonetheless have lots to play for.
4 groups are nonetheless vying for the 2 spots within the Championship sport, with San Diego State having the within observe. A win for the Aztecs will be certain that they’re internet hosting.
That, coupled with a Boise State win, would set the desk for a rematch of the sport the Aztecs gained a few weeks in the past. Ought to the Aggies or Lobos pull upsets, issues may get fascinating.
The ultimate week of the common season brings loads of rivalry and trophy video games as nicely.
The MW has seven groups bowl-eligible coming into week 14, and people seven will make up the convention’s bowl roster.
It’s a full slate this weekend with three video games on Friday and three on Saturday.
Here’s a take a look at the six-game slate for the MW this week.
Air Power Falcons at Colorado State Rams
Friday, November 28
12:00 PM PT, FS1
Line: Air Power -1.5
Over/Underneath: 45.5
This one is for the Ram-Falcon Trophy and the finale for each of those groups. Additionally it is the ultimate MW sport for the Rams forward of their bounce to the Pac-12 subsequent season.
The Rams enter the sport having dropped their final 5 contests, whereas the Falcons are also on a two-game slide.The Falcons have some optimistic momentum working for them, nevertheless.
Air Power has held 4 of the final 5 opponents to 21 factors or much less, with the lone outlier being the 26 they allowed at UConn.
So, the Falcons’ protection is beginning to settle in a bit after a tough begin to the season. The one fixed for Air Power has been the bottom sport on offense.
Yr in and 12 months out, they’re among the many finest within the nation at transferring the ball on the bottom. This season has been no completely different because the Falcons are fifth within the nation working the ball for 256.5 yards per sport.
Colorado State has been among the many worst at defending the run, giving up 194.8 yards per sport and rating 123rd within the nation. If the Rams can’t discover a method to decelerate Air Power on the bottom, will probably be an extended day.
With the Air Power protection stepping up just lately and the Rams’ incapability to cease groups on the bottom, the Ram-Falcon Trophy heads to Colorado Springs with a win for the Falcons
Towards the unfold: Air Power
Factors Complete: Underneath
Outright winner: Air Power
San Diego State Aztecs at New Mexico Lobos
Friday, November 28
12:30 PM PT, CBS Sports activities
Line: San Diego State -1.5
Over/Underneath: 41.5
Across all of faculty soccer on this final weekend of the common season, solely 9 matchups nationally function two groups with not less than eight wins. Now we have one in all them kicking off on Friday in Albuquerque.
The mixed profitable share of the Lobos and Aztecs this season is .773, and that makes for a enjoyable one to finish the common season.
It additionally occurs to be an enormous one in deciding who performs for the convention crown subsequent week. For the Aztecs, it’s actually easy: Win this one, they usually host subsequent week.
One would additionally suppose the winner of this one additionally has the coach of the 12 months within the MW. Each Jason Eck and Sean Lewis have achieved incredible work this season with their respective applications.
The plain key to look at for on this one is the Aztec protection in opposition to the Lobo offense, particularly within the run sport. SDSU has one of the vital dominant defenses within the nation and has restricted foes to 103.2 yards per sport, Sixteenth Sixteenth-best within the nation.
New Mexico might want to discover a method to transfer the ball on the bottom to get the win at house. If the Lobos can set up a working sport early, it is going to open issues up on offense. It can additionally assist to maintain issues manageable on third downs.
The Aztecs are 18th within the nation in third-down protection, and if the Lobos are to maintain some drives on offense, they might want to decide up conversions.
Third downs when the Aztecs have the ball, nevertheless, might be the true deciding issue on this contest. The Aztecs are among the many worst within the nation in changing on third downs, with a conversion price of simply 30.9% to rank 129th within the nation.
Within the two losses for SDSU, they transformed on simply 4 of 27 third downs mixed. New Mexico has been strong at getting opponents off the sector on the cash down, they usually might want to proceed that effectiveness on this one.
The Lobos have been superb at stopping the run, limiting opponents to 106.2 yards per sport, Twenty first-best within the nation and trailing solely the Aztecs within the MW.
The Lobos have been horrible in opposition to the go, however San Diego State has been equally as dangerous throwing the soccer this season.
One thing’s acquired to provide on this matchup of strengths in opposition to strengths, and I believe the Aztecs escape with a slender win behind an enormous effort from Fortunate Suton.
Towards the unfold: San Diego State
Factors Complete: Underneath
Outright winner: San Diego State
Boise State Broncos at Utah State Aggies
Friday, November 28
1:00 PM PT, CBS
Line: Boise State –3.5
Over/Underneath: 55.5
Boise State nonetheless has an opportunity to host the convention championship, however the extra possible situation sends them on the street. However actually, the vital factor is to win and see what occurs subsequent week.
An upset by the hands of the Aggies would make any speak of tie-breaking situations moot.
The Broncos will most probably have to get the win with Max Cutforth nonetheless beneath heart. Maddux Madsen appears to be making strides in his return from a leg damage, however continues to be an extended shot to see motion this Friday.
Final week, Cutforth had his finest outing within the win over Colorado State because the offense opened issues up within the passing sport a bit.
Search for Boise State to once more throw the ball in opposition to an Aggie protection that has not been nice. USU has had a tough time stopping groups from working or passing, and so long as the Broncos can keep away from turnovers, they need to have the ability to rating factors.
Utah State has been very profitable throwing the soccer, however will likely be challenged this week by the Broncos go protection. The Broncos are limiting opponents to 165.5 passing yards per sport, the Eleventh-best passing protection within the nation.
The Aggies might want to run the ball successfully to get the win. USU has run for 191.3 yards per win this season whereas slipping to 136.6 yards on the bottom within the 5 losses.
Final week, the Aggies ran for 226 yards on 47 carries in opposition to Fresno State whereas solely making an attempt 32 passes. Search for the Aggies to once more decide to the bottom sport, and for Bryson Barnes to as soon as once more make performs together with his legs because the Aggies pull off the upset.
Towards the unfold: Utah State
Factors Complete: Underneath
Outright winner: Utah State
UNLV Rebels at Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, November 29
6:00 PM PT, CBS Sports activities
Line: UNLV –8.5
Over/Underneath: 53.5
UNLV wants a win together with a San Diego State win and Boise State loss on Friday to achieve the title sport. They will additionally get there with some tiebreaking situations, however the hot button is to handle enterprise in Reno.
And also you higher imagine nothing would salvage a season extra for this Wolf Pack squad than beating their bitter rivals and denying them a shot on the title within the course of.
Profitable again The Fremont Cannon and wrecking the Rebels Championship hopes would require Nevada to supply on the offensive finish.
The Rebels have the best scoring offense within the Mountain West, averaging 36.7 factors per sport. Nevada has struggled to attain factors this 12 months, averaging simply 17.6 per ball sport—and that features their 55-point outburst in opposition to San Jose State two weeks in the past.
UNLV’s protection has hardly been dominant this season, however the Rebels have appeared stouter than that Spartan squad, if solely barely.
The Rebels are available on a three-game profitable streak of their very own, and the protection stepped up in a giant means in opposition to Hawaii final week. UNLV restricted the Warriors to simply 231 yards of offense, their finest defensive output of the season by a very good margin.
Nevada’s protection stored the potent passing assault of San Jose State in test two weeks in the past and shut down Wyoming fully final week. Search for the Rebels to lean closely on the bottom assault.
The Rebels have had 25 runs this season protecting 20+ scrimmage yards, the ninth-most within the nation. Jai’Den Thomas has produced 10 of these whereas Anthony Colandrea has 9 of these explosive runs.
Anticipate each of them to seek out house to run, and search for Thomas particularly to bust of some lengthy ones. Nevada might want to discover a method to bottle them up.
If the Rebels can produce three to 5 of these explosive performs on the bottom, Nevada may have a tough time maintaining. UNVL win and the Rebels draw back within the second half.
Towards the unfold: UNLV
Factors Complete: Over
Outright winner: UNLV
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans
Saturday, November 29
7:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: Fresno State –2.5
Over/Underneath: 47.5
The Valley Trophy will likely be up for grabs on Saturday night time in a matchup that many envisioned might need even increased stakes on supply. However a season that started with a lot promise for the Spartans has been a catastrophe.
The Bulldogs have discovered extra success on the sector in 2025 however nonetheless should be reeling from just a few squandered alternatives to play for a title of their ultimate season within the MW. Most notably, a blowout loss at Colorado State and final week’s house loss to Utah State.
Nonetheless, this ultimate assembly as convention rivals carries a whole lot of weight for either side.
The Spartans offense has been explosive this season, however the protection has been dreadful. Fresno State has a flexible offense and an opportunistic protection. Search for each of these to provide the sting to the Bulldogs.
Rayshon Luke is second within the convention and twenty second within the nation in all-purpose yards, averaging 111.3 per sport. The again leads the Bulldogs in dashing and is fourth in receiving.
Search for Luke to seek out a whole lot of yardage on this one. Bryson Donelson additionally might be powerful for the Spartans to cease out of the backfield.
San Jose State has among the finest passing assaults within the nation however has been restricted to simply 140 yards per sport within the final two. The Spartans have thrown eight interceptions throughout their present three-game dropping streak.
They can’t afford one other dangerous outing in opposition to a Bulldogs unit that’s tenth within the nation with 19 interceptions this season.
Fresno State wins their ultimate regular-season MW sport whereas the Spartans’ season involves an finish.
Towards the unfold: Fresno State
Factors Complete: Over
Outright winner: Fresno State
Wyoming Cowboys at Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Saturday, November 29
8:00 PM PT, Spectrum
Line: Hawai’i –9.5
Over/Underneath: 44.5
The Paniolo Trophy is up for grabs because the Rainbow Warriors host the Cowboys.
The groups have had vastly completely different outcomes this season with UW coming into with a 4-7 mark whereas UH has had a whole lot of success this season and sit 7-4 coming into the ultimate week of the common season.
The Rainbow Warriors have seen a drastic enchancment this season on the defensive facet of the soccer. UH has held opponents to simply 128.4 yards dashing of their seven wins and simply 187.4 by the air within the wins.
Wyoming all the time performs strong protection, however the offense is a problem as a rule. If the Cowboys hope to complete the season on a excessive notice, then they might want to produce on the bottom. That might be tough if main rusher Samuel Harris is unable to go.
The freshman working again sensation suffered a leg damage within the first half final week, and as of publication, his standing for the finale is unknown. Nonetheless, the sight of him on crutches within the second half final week was not promising.
Sam Scott stepped in and produced at 4.4 yards per carry, and the Cowboys will want each little bit of that this week.
Defensively, the Cowboys are tenth within the nation in opposition to the go, permitting simply 165.2 yards per sport. That go protection will make issues tough on Micah Alejado and the UH passing sport.
The freshman QB has thrown 19 touchdows this season, tying the one season mark for a freshman together with his present head coach. Alejado has directed the Thirteenth-most potent passing offense this season.
If the Warriors can transfer the ball by the air, they may make brief work of the Cowboys. The UH floor assault ranks 127th within the nation so if the Cowboys can gradual issues down by the air they will spring the upset.
Hawaii has gained every of their final seven Senior Nights and 12 of the final 13. That profitable development continues this 12 months as UH wins their eighth sport of the season.
Towards the unfold: Hawai’i
Factors Complete: Underneath
Outright winner: Hawai’i
writes about varied matters for SuperWest sports activities, together with stats and data, faculty sports activities, and motorsports. He additionally based and runs the Sports activities and Leisure Analysis Middle (SERC).
