By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports activities
It is déjà vu once more for the convention crown. For the third time in as a few years, the Mountain West Championship recreation will characteristic UNLV and Boise State.
The four-way regular-season tie within the convention standings between the Rebels, Broncos, Aztecs, and Lobos wanted to be determined by common rankings, utilizing the metrics of Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI, and SportSource.
When all was mentioned and executed, the computer systems gave UNLV a median nationwide rating of 45.5, San Diego State 51.00, and New Mexico 54.75. Consequently, Boise State will host, due to their 56-31 head-to-head win over the Rebels on October 18th.
Sadly, the third consecutive assembly between the 2 groups for MW supremacy will even be the final. With Boise State heading to the Pac-12 subsequent season, UNLV, SDSU, and New Mexico will vie to hold the banner for the Mountain West.
However nostalgia and the convoluted tiebreaker course of apart, what is going to occur when BSU and UNLV tee it up on Friday night time?
UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos
Friday, December fifth
5:00 PM PT, FOX
Jason Benetti, Robert Griffin III, and Alexa Landestoy
Line: Boise State -3.5
Over/Underneath Level Complete: 58.5
Similar to final season, enjoying in Boise spells dangerous information for the Rebels, who’re nonetheless looking for their first-ever win on the Blue Turf.
The Broncos are 8-0 all-time within the sequence at house. Furthermore, Boise State has gained every of the final ten conferences between the colleges, a streak that dates to 1976.
However whereas the Rebels have struggled in Boise—as many different groups have—the Rebels are 15-4 in true street video games because the begin of 2023.
The massive information right here is the return of Boise State beginning quarterback Maddux Madsen, who has been nearly unbeatable in house video games towards MW opponents in his profession.
In BSU’s regular-season win over UNLV this 12 months, Madsen threw for 253 yards and 4 touchdowns, including 23. yards on the bottom.
This would be the signal-caller’s first recreation since his ankle harm 4 weeks in the past.
Max Cutforth had a giant recreation final week, however Madsen ought to give the Broncos a bit extra within the working recreation. We are going to see how efficient he’ll be along with his legs coming off his rehab.
The Rebels haven’t been spectacular towards the run this season, permitting 175.5 speeding yards per recreation. Within the prior loss to Boise State, they allowed 294 yards on the bottom.
Within the 5 video games since that defeat, UNLV is 4-1, having restricted opponents to 134.6 yards speeding. If the Rebels are to depart Boise with a win, they might want to decelerate a speeding assault that’s averaging 189.8 yards per recreation.
Offensively, the Rebels have been extraordinarily environment friendly on the bottom this season, rating seventeenth nationally with 204.7 speeding yards per recreation.
They rushed for 261 yards within the first assembly, the third-highest output the Broncos allowed this season, and considered one of 5 video games through which BSU allowed 200 yards or extra on the bottom.
Evidently, this one can be gained and misplaced within the trenches. Whichever group has extra success slowing down the working recreation can have the sting.
However each groups can sling the ball round.
UNLV ranks thirty fifth in passing yards nationally, throwing for 258.6 yards per recreation, and Anthony Colandrea has averaged 286.4 passing yards within the final 5 video games.
Boise State won’t make it straightforward for the Rebels to maneuver the ball by means of the air. The Broncos’ cross protection is eleventh within the nation, limiting opponents to only 167.1 yards per recreation.
This one can be enjoyable to observe and figures to return right down to the wire.
I search for a extra aggressive recreation than of their first assembly, however as with that matchup, I anticipate the Broncos to get the win.
Boise State may make the Rebels one-dimensional on offense, which would be the distinction.
Outright winner: Boise State
In opposition to the Unfold: Boise State
Over/Underneath: Over
writes about varied subjects for SuperWest sports activities, together with stats and data, faculty sports activities, and motorsports. He additionally based and runs the Sports activities and Leisure Analysis Heart (SERC).
