[ad_1]
March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed down -0.13 (-0.87%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -3.40 (-0.80%).
Sugar costs retreated on Tuesday as a consequence of a droop in crude oil costs. WTI crude (CLF26) sank to a 4.75-year low on Tuesday, which undercuts ethanol costs and will immediate the world’s sugar mills to divert extra cane crushing towards sugar manufacturing relatively than ethanol, thus boosting sugar provides.
Sugar costs have been already on the defensive from Monday when the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) reported that Indian sugar manufacturing from October 1 to December 15 jumped +28% y/y to 7.8 MMT.
The outlook for report sugar output in Brazil can also be bearish for costs. Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, on Nov 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar manufacturing estimate to 45 MMT from a earlier forecast of 44.5 MMT. On Tuesday, Unica reported that Brazil’s cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by November rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT. Additionally, the quantity of cane crushed for sugar rose to 51.12% in 2025/36 from 48.34% in 2024/25.
On the bearish aspect for sugar, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) on Nov 17 forecast a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a 2.916 million MT deficit in 2024-25. ISO stated the excess is being pushed by elevated sugar manufacturing in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. In August, ISO had beforehand forecast a 231,000 MT deficit for the 2025-26 advertising yr. ISO is forecasting a +3.2% y/y rise in world sugar manufacturing to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26. In the meantime, sugar dealer Czarnikow on Nov 5 boosted its world 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to eight.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a September estimate of seven.5 MMT.
Indicators of a bigger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting costs after the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) on Nov 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar manufacturing estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The ISMA additionally reduce its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can enable India to spice up its sugar exports.
[ad_2]
