For the previous 25 years, Somalia’s political transitions haven’t succeeded by chance. They had been sustained via worldwide engagement, strain, and mediation aimed toward preserving fragile political settlements. In the present day, nevertheless, Somalia stands at a harmful crossroads. The federal authorities’s unilateral pursuit of energy, cloaked within the language of democratic reform, threatens to set off a legitimacy disaster and undo a long time of political beneficial properties and worldwide funding.
Common suffrage is a perfect that every one Somalis share. Nevertheless, deep political disagreement amongst teams, persistent safety challenges, the looming expiry of the federal government’s mandate, and monetary constraints make the well timed implementation of common suffrage almost inconceivable.
Pursuing common suffrage with out political consent, institutional readiness, or minimal safety ensures doesn’t deepen democracy or sovereignty; it concentrates energy within the palms of incumbents whereas growing the chance of fragmentation and parallel authority.
As a substitute of addressing these constraints via consensus, the federal government is engaged in an influence seize, deploying the rhetoric of common suffrage. It has unilaterally modified the structure, which types the premise of the political settlement. It has additionally enacted self-serving legal guidelines governing electoral processes, political events, and the Election and Boundaries Fee. Furthermore, the federal government has appointed 18 commissioners, all backed by the ruling Justice and Solidarity Celebration (JSP).
In the meantime, Somaliland introduced its secession in 1991 and has been searching for recognition for the final three and a half a long time. Most of Somalia’s nationwide opposition, together with the leaders of Puntland and Jubbaland Federal Member States, have rejected the federal government’s strategy and fashioned the Council for the Way forward for Somalia. These teams have introduced plans to organise a political conference in Somalia, signalling their intent to pursue a parallel political course of if the federal government doesn’t hear.
The Federal Authorities of Somalia doesn’t absolutely management the nation. Al-Shabab controls sure areas and districts and retains the flexibility to conduct operations properly past its areas of direct management. Not too long ago, the hardline group attacked a jail positioned close to Villa Somalia, a stark reminder of the delicate safety setting wherein any electoral course of must happen.
Given the extent of polarisation and the restricted time remaining beneath the present mandate, the worldwide neighborhood should intervene to help Somalia’s sixth political transition in 2026. Probably the most viable manner to make sure a protected transition is to advertise an improved oblique election mannequin. Somalia’s political class has lengthy expertise with oblique elections, having relied on this mannequin 5 occasions over the previous 25 years. Nevertheless, even with political settlement, the improved oblique election mannequin for the 2026 dispensation should meet requirements of timeliness, feasibility, competitiveness, and inclusivity.
The present authorities mandate expires on Might 15, 2026, and discussions are already beneath manner amongst authorities supporters a couple of unilateral time period extension. This have to be discouraged. If a political settlement is reached in time, some type of technical extension could also be needed, however this could solely happen whereas the 2026 choice and election processes are actively beneath manner. One approach to keep away from this recurring disaster can be to determine a agency and binding deadline for elections. Puntland, for instance, has maintained a schedule of elections held each 5 years in January.
The improved oblique election mannequin should even be possible, that means it must be simple to grasp and implement. Political teams may agree on a hard and fast variety of delegates to elect every seat. Recognised conventional elders from every constituency would then choose delegates. Delegates from a small cluster of constituencies would collaborate to elect candidates for these seats. This method is way from very best, however it’s workable beneath present situations.
In contrast to earlier makes an attempt, the improved oblique election mannequin should even be genuinely aggressive and inclusive. In previous elections, politicians manipulated parliamentary choice by limiting competitors via a apply often called “Malxiis” (bestman). The popular candidate introduces a bestman, somebody who pretends to compete however is rarely meant to win. For the upcoming election, the method should permit candidates to compete meaningfully moderately than symbolically. A transparent threshold of “no manipulation” and “no bestman” have to be enforced.
Inclusivity stays one other main concern. Girls’s seats, which ought to account for about 30 % of parliament, have regularly been undermined. Any political settlement should embody a transparent dedication to inclusivity, and the establishments overseeing the election have to be empowered to implement the ladies’s quota. Authorities leaders have additionally arbitrarily managed seats allotted to Somaliland representatives. Given the distinctive political circumstances, a separate, negotiated, and credible course of is required.
Lastly, widespread corruption has lengthy tainted Somalia’s choice and election processes, undermining their integrity. In 2022, the presidents of the Federal Member States managed and manipulated the method. To curb corruption within the 2026 improved oblique election mannequin, one efficient measure can be to extend the variety of voters per seat by aggregating constituencies. In apply, this might imply mixed delegates from a number of constituencies voting collectively, lowering alternatives for vote shopping for.
The worldwide neighborhood has beforehand pressured Somali political actors to achieve an settlement, insisting there must be “no time period extension or unilateral elections by the federal government” and “no parallel political tasks by the opposition”. This strategy, mixed with the leverage the worldwide neighborhood nonetheless holds, may be efficient. Somalia’s political class should once more be pushed into severe, structured negotiations moderately than unilateral manoeuvres.
As earlier than, the worldwide neighborhood ought to clearly outline political pink traces. The federal government should chorus from any time period extensions or unilateral election tasks. On the identical time, the opposition should abandon plans for a parallel political agenda, together with Federal Member States conducting elections outdoors a political settlement.
Somalis have repeatedly demonstrated their democratic aspirations. What stands in the way in which is just not public will, however elite polarisation and the instrumentalisation of reform for political survival. At this important second, the worldwide neighborhood can not afford to retreat into passivity. Proactive and principled engagement is crucial to forestall a legitimacy collapse, safeguard the beneficial properties of the previous 25 years, and defend the substantial investments made in peacebuilding and state-building in Somalia.
The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
