By now, everybody is aware of that Elon Musk could be very a lot an optimist in terms of making predictions.
That is the good method to put it. To be blunt, Musk is a “bullshit artist.” He makes guarantees he cannot hold. For instance, everybody now could be probably very conversant in his notorious 2011 interview with the Wall Avenue Journal the place he mentioned he’d put a person on Mars in 10 years. That was 14 years in the past now and we’re nowhere close to placing anybody on Mars. Years in the past, Musk additionally touted his proposed Hyperloop practice system as a method to rapidly transport folks between cities; that by no means got here to fruition and was probably a ruse to cease different transit tasks.
With 2025 practically over, Mashable determined to revisit his predictions associated to this 12 months. Time has run out. What did Musk promise for this 12 months that did not come to fruition?
Individuals on Mars by 2025
Sure, I simply talked about that 2011 Wall Avenue Journal interview the place Musk promised to place a person on Mars in 10 years. Nevertheless, this one is a very separate promise from Musk relating to a person on Mars.
Again in 2016 — roughly 4 years after his 10-year WSJ declare — Musk made an look throughout Recode’s Code 2016 convention. Throughout a dialog with Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg, Musk pushed again his earlier Mars arrival prediction that positioned people on the purple planet by 2021. In response to Musk, SpaceX would begin sending rockets to Mars by 2018, adopted by a brand new Mars mission each 26 months, and then they’d begin sending folks.
“If issues go based on plan, we must always be capable of launch folks most likely in 2024 with arrival in 2025,” Musk mentioned, referring to colonists arriving on the planet.
Nope — 2025 has come and gone and we’re nonetheless not on Mars.
NASA Mars rover captures crackling lightning. Hear the ‘thunder’ your self.
Tesla robotaxis would cowl half of the U.S. inhabitants
Take a stroll exterior. What number of Tesla robotaxis do you see? None, you say? And also you say you reside in Austin, Texas – the one place within the U.S. the place robotaxis are at present working?
That is odd. As a result of in July, throughout Tesla’s Q2 quarterly monetary report, Musk instructed traders that Tesla’s robotaxis could be serving half of the nation.
“I imagine half of the inhabitants of the US will probably be lined by Tesla’s robotaxi by the tip of the 12 months,” Musk mentioned.
Clearly, that is not true. And a brand new report from the New York Occasions final week discovered that even Austin locals hardly ever, if ever, got here throughout Tesla’s robotaxis.
Because the EV outlet Electrek identified on the time of his declare, it was preposterous for Musk to make. But, he made the declare with a straight face and traders believed him.
Absolutely driverless Tesla robotaxis
Talking of Tesla’s robotaxis, in case you do come throughout one, do you know you may really discover a human security monitor driving inside? You’ll, regardless of what Musk beforehand promised.
“Teslas will probably be within the wild with nobody in them, in June in Austin,” Musk mentioned final 12 months in a 2024 This fall earnings name. “This isn’t some far-off legendary scenario, it is 5, six months away.”
Whereas Tesla’s robotaxi service did arrive in Austin throughout that timeline, they weren’t “with nobody in them.” The extent of autonomy that Tesla’s performs at requires a human security monitor to experience contained in the automobile, based on Texas laws.
However, Musk promised a number of instances over the previous few months that these human security screens could be eliminated by the tip of 2025.
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Musk mentioned so in a publish in September on X.
“The security driver is simply there for the primary few months to be additional secure,” Musk mentioned. “Ought to be no security driver by finish of 12 months.”
Mashable Gentle Velocity
Musk reiterated that schedule throughout an earnings name in October.
“We predict to don’t have any security drivers in at the very least giant elements of Austin by the tip of this 12 months, so inside a couple of months,” Musk mentioned.
After which Musk repeated that declare in early December throughout an xAI hackathon.
“Unsupervised is just about solved at this level,” acknowledged Musk. “So there will probably be Tesla robotaxis working in Austin with nobody in them. Not even anybody within the passenger seat in about three weeks.”
Final week, Musk posted that he had taken a experience in a totally driverless Tesla robotaxi in Austin. A Tesla worker shared a video from inside a driverless experience as effectively. Nevertheless, these seem like take a look at runs as common clients nonetheless report human security screens are nonetheless a part of the experience, as least as of very late December.
xAI would obtain AGI
Synthetic normal intelligence or AGI is mainly the holy grail for the present AI-obsessed tech trade. AGI could be outlined as the kind of synthetic intelligence that we had been promised in sci-fi motion pictures. It isn’t a big language mannequin that may sound human, like current AI, however AI that may really carry out mental duties identical to a human. It could actually suppose, study, cause, and take motion.
In 2024, in a reply on his social media platform X, Musk mentioned his AI firm xAI would obtain AGI in 2025.
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“How lengthy till AGI?” posted Logan Kilpatrick of Google AI Studio.
“Subsequent 12 months,” Musk replied.
“Huge if true,” Kilpatrick responded.
Effectively, shock. It wasn’t true.
In response to a brand new report from Enterprise Insider, Musk has since moved the goalposts and says xAI might obtain AGI within the subsequent few years and probably even by subsequent 12 months! We’ll report again on the finish of 2026 except Musk’s model of Skynet has taken over.
A flying automotive / demo of the long-awaited Tesla Roadster
It is a combo of two potential guarantees, because it’s nonetheless unclear what the heck Musk was really referring to on Joe Rogan’s podcast again in November.
Throughout an look on the Joe Rogan Expertise, Musk claimed that Tesla would drop a demo of the long-awaited Roadster, a automobile which the corporate introduced and began taking preorders for in 2017. The Tesla Roadster has nonetheless but to be launched eight years later.
“We’re getting near demonstrating the prototype,” Musk mentioned to Rogan throughout the present. “I feel this will probably be…one factor I can assure is that this product demo will probably be unforgettable.”
When pressed for a timeline from Rogan, Musk replied “hopefully earlier than the tip of the 12 months.”
Nevertheless, Musk went additional, recalling how his “buddy” Peter Thiel would say that the long run was imagined to have flying automobiles, but we do not have flying automobiles. Rogan questioned Musk additional however Musk simply hinted that Thief ought to be capable of purchase a flying automotive and we would all simply have to attend to see the demo.
So, was Musk saying that the Roadster can fly? Was Musk even being critical concerning the flying automotive? Who is aware of. However, 2025 is now over and we do not have a demo of a flying automotive or a Roadster so Musk did not ship on both.
DOGE would reduce $2 trillion in ‘waste, fraud and abuse’
Following Donald Trump’s reelection, Musk was given the possibility to go up a brand new quasi-government company referred to as DOGE through which he pledged to chop $2 trillion in what he described as “waste, fraud and abuse.”
DOGE rapidly turned fairly controversial as Musk and his very younger group struggled to search out any actual “waste, fraud, and abuse” within the federal authorities. Lots of DOGE’s claims of fraud had been debunked and the group had a penchant for posting inaccurate knowledge which put the group in a extra favorable mild.
Musk’s promise of $2 trillion in cuts rapidly turned a promise of $1 trillion in cuts. That $1 trillion promise? That quickly was rounded down additional to the a whole lot of billions.
Now, new evaluation from the New York Occasions in addition to the right-wing CATO Institute, discovered that DOGE really did not save something. Most of the authorities contacts that DOGE claimed to cancel are nonetheless energetic. The truth is, authorities spending really went up on DOGE’s watch.
“The federal authorities spent $7.6 trillion within the first 11 months of calendar 12 months 2025, roughly $248 billion increased by November of 2025 in comparison with the identical month in 2024,” the CATO Institute’s evaluation mentioned.
Whereas Musk did not ship on his DOGE guarantees, the cuts it did really make to USAID and international help packages have reportedly led to a whole lot of 1000’s of deaths. Blissful new 12 months?
This text displays the opinions of the creator.
