By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports activities
Both Fresno State and San Diego State will play their final video games as members of the Mountain West Convention on Saturday earlier than shifting to the newly reconstituted Pac-12 for the 2026 season.
With a win over Miami (OH) within the Arizona Bowl, the Bulldogs would enhance to 9-4 underneath first-year head coach Matt Entz, who coached the primary Bulldog offensive lineman to be named All-Convention First Crew within the MW Period.
San Diego State can log its first 1o+ win season since 2011, and the primary underneath second-year head coach Sean Lewis by defeating North Texas within the New Mexico Bowl.
I preview each postseason video games right here and supply my picks straight-up, towards the unfold, and over/underneath.
Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State 
Saturday, December 27
1:30 PM PT, The CW
On line casino del Sol Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Thom Brennaman, Will Blackmon, and Wes Bryant
Line: Fresno State -6
Over/Underneath: 42.5
We get one other MAC vs. Mountain West bowl sport on Saturday in Tucson between the RedHawks and the Bulldogs.
The important thing to this one is straightforward for Fresno State: If the Bulldogs run the soccer and win the turnover battle, they are going to discover success.
Of their eight wins this season, Fresno State is averaging 207.5 yards per sport, whereas that whole dips to 94.6 within the 4 losses. The Bulldogs are among the many finest within the nation at creating turnovers, as their 24 are the eleventh most within the nation.
Once more, that’s the formulation for Fresno State to win. Of their eight victories this season, the Bulldogs have logged 20 takeaways and have pressured 17 interceptions.
Of their 4 losses, they’ve solely created 4 miscues. However additional to the purpose, the turnover margin is +1.25 within the wins and dips to -1.50 within the losses.
A giant a part of the turnover woes in Fresno State’s losses has come within the passing sport, the place the Bulldogs have averaged two interceptions thrown within the 4 losses.
They common almost 14 extra move makes an attempt per loss than they do in wins. So if the Bulldogs transfer the ball on the bottom, they won’t must put it up.
The RedHawks have a stout protection and have been stingy towards the move and the run, rating within the mid-30s nationally in each departments. When Miami College struggled in video games, although, they obtained tormented on the bottom.
Within the seven wins this season, they’ve restricted opponents to simply 85 yards dashing. Within the six losses, that quantity rockets to 185 per outing.
Offensively, the RedHawks should not have close to the firepower of the Bulldogs. Miami will look to grind it out and might want to bust some explosive performs.
Sadly for the squad from Oxford, OH, their finest playmaker on offense additionally is likely to be one of the best WR within the switch portal. Kam Perry averaged 23 yards per reception and was harmful in his capacity to stretch the sphere.
Miami might want to create some massive performs to drag off the win. Fresno State is among the many finest within the nation at limiting massive performs, permitting simply 34 performs of 20+ yards.
This one figures to be a decent sport, and subject place could also be at a premium. Ball safety might be large, as a well timed turnover may flip the sphere right away.
The RedHawks are additionally excellent at forcing errors, with 20 turnovers created this season, however not like the Bulldogs, they don’t give it away almost as usually.
This one will keep shut, however I don’t suppose Miami could have sufficient offense, and Fresno State will get the win.
Outright winner: Fresno State
Towards the unfold: Fresno State
Factors Complete: Underneath
No. 25 North Texas vs San Diego State
Saturday, December 27
2:45 PM PT, ESPN
College Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Lowell Galindo, Aaron Murray, and Lauren Sisler
Line: North Texas -3
Over/Underneath Complete: 54.5
If ever there was a matchup of contrasting types, that is it.
The Imply Inexperienced owns the nation’s most potent offense, averaging essentially the most factors per sport within the nation at 44.8 factors per contest. The Aztecs are limiting opponents to simply 12.5 factors per sport, the fifth-lowest scoring protection within the nation.
UNT will get an enormous elevate in the truth that, as of now, Drew Mestemaker plans to play within the bowl sport earlier than coming into the switch portal in January. And almost certainly, he’ll observe his previous coach, Eric Morris, to Oklahoma State.
Morris won’t be on the sidelines, as Drew Svoboda will assume the pinnacle teaching duties, however I don’t anticipate the potent offense to overlook a beat.
North Texas has accomplished a superb job in move safety, permitting simply 1.39 sacks per sport. San Diego State has been dominant up entrance, attending to QBs 2.67 instances per sport and limiting groups to 109.7 dashing.
Chris Johnson and the Aztecs’ secondary might be examined. Wyatt Younger is a big-play menace for North Texas at wideout. If the Aztecs can get stress on Mestemaker, it should throw off the timing primarily based passing assault for UNT.
North Texas has struggled to cease the run and that’s the power of the Aztecs offensive assault.
Fortunate Sutton ought to have loads of room to run. If SDSU can power some three-and-outs from the UNT offense, the Aztecs can actually lean on the bottom assault to wear down the Imply Inexperienced protection.
SDSU has allowed simply 28 scrimmage performs of 20+ yards this season, the second-fewest within the nation.
If they will take away the massive play from the Imply Inexperienced, they need to be capable to restrict the high-powered offense and permit their very own floor assault to manage the tempo of play.
I feel the Aztecs pull off the upset, offering a leaping off level for the 2026 season.
Outright Winner: San Diego State
Towards the Unfold: San Diego State
Over/Underneath: Underneath
writes about varied matters for SuperWest sports activities, together with stats and information, faculty sports activities, and motorsports. He additionally based and runs the Sports activities and Leisure Analysis Middle (SERC).
