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You saw the Denver Broncos lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC — just one day after the Seattle Seahawks did the same in the NFC. You saw the strange way the Carolina Panthers made their way into the postseason with a season-saving win from the … Atlanta Falcons!(?) You saw the Steelers eke out a dramatic comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens.
So let’s try to spin it forward, dive deeper and think outside the box about what we witnessed in Week 18. This is “Sound Smart,” where we prepare you for Monday morning with nine observations from the final weekend of the regular season. If I do my job, you’ll be fluent in the NFL’s Week 18 action.
1. IF THERE’S ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW FROM WEEK 18, IT’S THAT ….
Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford will be the difference-makers in a wide-open playoff field.
If you can’t see the glaring weakness for each and every playoff team, you’re not looking hard enough. I see 14 teams with 14 Achilles heels. And that’s why I think Allen and Stafford will be the difference-makers in the postseason.
Allen knows as well as anyone how much the playoff heartbreak can ruin the offseason months. That’ll matter when he sees some of these other teams that might simply be happy to be in the postseason. Allen also knows that the only teams to bounce him — Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs and Joe Burrow’s Bengals — aren’t in the picture. That’s a motivator. Allen might never have a better chance to win Buffalo’s first Super Bowl. He’s been playing with desire all season, in part because the passing offense hasn’t been there for him like it has in past years. But that could work to his strength — which has been unparalleled desperation this year.
And for Stafford, he’s been there and done that. We saw how much that helped Tom Brady in the later stage of his career, with a rare blend of experience, confidence and talent. The Rams might have let the No. 1 seed slip between their fingers. But they’re still the NFL’s most complete team in my eyes.
At least one of these (wild-card) teams is going to make the Super Bowl. Maybe both.
2. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY
Part 1: Who’s winning MVP? Coach of the Year?
For MVP, it’s Matthew Stafford against Drake Maye. Maye has been more valuable when it comes to this season (when measured in just about every advanced and per-play metric), but Stafford has more touchdowns and has the legacy element — where voters might give this to him as another crowning achievement for his impressive career. I lean Maye. I have no idea if I’m in the majority or minority.
For COY, it is seemingly between Mike Macdonald or Mike Vrabel, according to Vegas odds. Despite swapping QBs in the offseason, Macdonald finished atop the NFC. But the Seahawks were a 10-win team. And voters sometimes want to see more obvious metrics of improvement — or a longer list of adversities (like key injuries). So that’s why Vrabel has a good case, turning the Patriots around from four wins and bringing Maye with him. But if we’re playing that game, I like Liam Coen — a distant fourth for the award in betting odds coming into this week. The Jaguars weren’t just a four-win team last year. They were …. the Jaguars. (Yuck!) But Coen has changed Trevor Lawrence and changed the culture in Jacksonville, a franchise that isn’t storied like New England. Unlike the Patriots, the Jaguars felt foundationally rotten to the core. Coen is beginning to change that. I lean his way. In that case, I know I’m in the minority.
Part 2: Panthers’ penalties
There have been some poorly officiated games with major playoff implications, including the Lions’ loss to the Steelers in Week 16, which essentially tanked their season. But at least in that game, it boiled down to one bad call. The officials interfered with the Panthers’ chances of winning at every twist and turn in their loss to the Buccaneers. This isn’t to say it was on purpose, to be clear. But you can’t argue: The officials’ mistakes greatly influenced this game.
- The officials failed to call an unnecessary roughness penalty from Buccaneers linebacker SirVocea Dennis for ripping the helmet off Panthers tight end Tommy Tremble.
- The officials called defensive pass interference on Panthers safety Nick Scott when his feet clicked with Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton. Otton seemed to trip on his own feet, but they called it anyway. It put the Buccaneers within field-goal range on a drive that ended in a field goal.
- The officials incorrectly called offensive pass interference on Tetairoa McMillan for getting off a jam within the first five yards. It reversed the Panthers’ conversion of a third-and-2 at the end of the third quarter. They failed to convert the ensuing third-and-12, and punted to close out the drive. Three different former pro defensive backs (Stephon Gilmore, Asante Samuel and Ryan Clark) took to social media to dispute the call.
- The officials blew an inadvertent whistle on a backward pass to Rico Dowdle. After initially ruling the play an incompletion on the field, they clarified that it was a backward pass caught out of bounds for a 6-yard loss — which made zero sense because Dowdle was not out of bounds. It should have been a replay of the down because of an officiating error.
The Panthers didn’t play a spotless — and even good — recreation. Bryce Younger threw an egregious interception — a textbook throw that coaches educate you not to do. After which coach Dave Canales known as a flea flicker in messy situations. On the play, Dowdle slipped on the moist turf and fumbled his backward pitch, which the Bucs recovered. It was a textbook playcall that coaches will use as a reminder of how their “creativity” can generally get in the best way of a win.
Whenever you add up all of these essential errors at essential moments in a two-point recreation that might have determined the end result of a playoff spot, you have got a significant downside. And since it’s the Panthers, who’re a small-market workforce (that’s below-.500), there may not be a lot griping outdoors Carolina.
Properly, I’m right here to do it for the Panthers. As a result of that was a bunch of huey.
3. LOSER GOES HOME — AND LEAVES TOWN?
Might this be the top of the Ravens as we all know them?
You would possibly suppose that it’s unfitting for the Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh period to return right down to a missed subject purpose. However keep in mind, Harbaugh is a particular groups man. That’s the place he has to carry up his finish of the cut price.
That is imagined to be how QBs and coaches work in live performance with each other — significantly when their strengths are in several phases of the sport. Invoice Belichick took care of the Patriots protection and Tom Brady took care of the offense. Josh Allen shepherds the Payments offense and Sean McDermott champions the protection.
So it stands to cause that with Lamar caring for the offense, Harbaugh might do the remaining on particular groups. With the playoffs on the road. Within the AFC North title recreation.
However given what we’ve seen this yr — and what we’ve heard — it makes excellent sense that it didn’t work out. That Tyler Loop’s kick was extensive proper. That the Ravens’ season is over by the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin and Aaron Rodgers.
Given the stakes of the sport, it’s notable that Harbaugh (and Loop) couldn’t come by means of.
For the Steelers and Ravens, the query for each coaches and each quarterbacks was whether or not, in the event that they misplaced, they’d return of their present roles for 2026. So with the Ravens’ season ending, it’s time to wonder if that’s the top of the Ravens as we all know them. The connection between Jackson and the Ravens is fraying, per the Baltimore Solar. And it appeared — all the best way as much as a game-winning field-goal try — that victory would possibly wash any dangerous style from their mouths. However, if something, that style obtained a complete lot worse.
Baltimore may need the unimaginable choice: Harbaugh or Lamar?
Besides that it’s not unimaginable. Not likely. As glorious as Harbaugh has been, you choose Lamar each time.
4. EVERYONE’S AFRAID TO SAY …
The Cincinnati Bengals ought to half methods with coach Zac Taylor regardless of what Joe Burrow desires.
But once more, the Bengals misplaced a nasty recreation on Sunday. And but once more, Joe Burrow performed the blues.
“I haven’t gotten that pleasure out of this that I used to — the enjoyment that I obtained was successful,” Burrow instructed reporters after the Browns’ upset win.
I get that he’s bummed. I get that he’s enjoying for the Bengals, who perennially disappoint. I get that he’s pressuring possession to step up and make modifications. I get that what he’s actually making an attempt to say is: Open up that pockets, Mike Brown.
I aspect with Burrow in all of that.
However I additionally learn the experiences that Burrow helps Taylor sticking round as head coach. And that, I can’t abide.
To me, that’s Burrow being simply as dangerous as his workforce’s proprietor — preserving issues the identical and anticipating completely different outcomes. Burrow can’t mope and mope and mope concerning the downfall of this workforce — but once more — with out demanding widespread change throughout the group. Burrow has to let Taylor go. Their coach isn’t getting this workforce the place it must be, not even on an offense that includes the league’s greatest trio of QB-WR-WR. If the Bengals opened up their head teaching spot, it will be essentially the most fascinating emptiness within the league.
They’d get their man, whoever that’s.
Think about Vikings DC Brian Flores taking up the maligned protection and Burrow main the offense. It’d be just like the Houston Texans or the Buffalo Payments.
Think about Browns coach Kevin Stefanski (reportedly getting fired) or Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak changing Taylor within the offensive guru function — and truly being good at it.
5. WHICH COACHES SHOULD STAY, AND WHICH SHOULD GO?
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals — Go
As talked about, it hasn’t been adequate, not even with the handicap of working the penny-pinching Bengals.
Aaron Glenn, New York Jets — Keep
Anybody who thinks the Jets must be rallying round Glenn to complete the season is forgetting that GM Darren Mougey traded away CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams. Give the coach yet one more yr, a minimum of.
Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders — Go
We noticed not too long ago with Invoice Belichick that it’s not simply gamers who maintain onto the sport too lengthy. Coaches (like Carroll and Belichick) do it, too.
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns — Keep
He’s clearly getting fired. It’s additionally clearly a mistake. However the Browns are gonna Browns.
Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins — Keep
He’s been actually spectacular in current weeks, each by way of offensive scheme and rallying the locker room.
Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals — Go
The QB scenario goes to reset. The teaching scenario ought to, too.
Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Keep
Of us have been poaching from his teaching employees for the previous few years. Give him a while to construct the steady again up on the offensive aspect of the ball. The Bucs will probably be again.
6. THE SCREENSHOT WORTH 228 WORDS
Life is sort of a Sam Darnold dropback. You by no means know what you’re gonna get.
Simply check out this screenshot, which captures Darnold staring down a wide-open Zach Charbonnet. You’d suppose he threw this ball for a straightforward landing. And also you’d be flawed. As an alternative, Darnold took an 11-yard sack.
As a result of … properly, as a result of Sam Darnold.
After two working performs, Seattle went for it on fourth down from the 4-yard line and Darnold threw incomplete to Cooper Kupp for a turnover on downs. Zero factors.
That’s what the Seahawks have contended with this season: the moments when Darnold’s mind appears to momentarily depart his physique. And there are 5 to seven of those moments per recreation. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and coach Mike Macdonald (a defensive guru) have mixed to work round these moments with astounding excellence this yr.
However Darnold will maintain them weak.
Suppose again to the 2 video games towards the Rams (one win and one loss). Suppose again to the sport towards the Colts (and Philip Rivers’ first look in 5 years) which Seattle eked out, 18-16.
Make no mistake: The Seahawks are a terrific soccer workforce. But it surely’s not due to Darnold. Actually, if not for him, they’d be the Tremendous Bowl favourite. However with him — and with him wanting off open receivers for an apparent landing — the Seahawks are similar to everybody else within the postseason subject: actually good with one deadly flaw.
7. STATS DON’T LIE — OR DO THEY?
Half 1. Myles Garrett logged his twenty third sack, most in NFL historical past.
Three issues are true.
First, Garrett was one of the best soccer participant within the league in 2025. Full cease.
Second, Garrett’s document is just not — on first look — extra spectacular than what Michael Strahan did in 2001 when he logged 22.5 sacks in 16 video games (greater than Garrett had by means of 16 video games). We are able to examine apples to apples, and we will initially conclude that Garrett solely set the document as a result of he obtained yet one more chunk on the apple. (It is also price noting that Al “Bubba” Baker recorded 23 sacks in 1978, 4 years earlier than sacks grew to become an official stat.) However whereas we’re evaluating apples to apples, let’s have a look at snaps, we could? Garrett managed to get to 23 in 437 snaps, sooner than Strahan obtained to 22.5 (567) — and T.J. Watt obtained to 22.5 in 2021 (616). Data are all the time sophisticated, however let’s not overcomplicate this one.
That is why my third level is most necessary: Garrett is among the 5 greatest pass-rushers in NFL historical past. This document rightfully asserts his standing as a future Corridor of Famer. His athleticism — demonstrated by his mind-bending get-off (quickest by any rusher this yr) on the sack that broke the document — is transcendent and would’ve made him dominant in any and each period.
So this stat is the reality.
Garrett made historical past as a result of he’s traditionally nice.
Half 2. Seahawks rookie guard Gray Zabel drew the very best offensive grade (93.4) for his efficiency within the workforce’s win over the 49ers on Saturday, per PFF. It’s the second-highest grade from a Seahawks offensive participant (Sam Darnold, Week 6) and the third-highest grade from a guard in any recreation this yr.
It’s no lie! As inconsistent because the grades are on PFF, this one makes an necessary level: Zabel isn’t simply the most effective rookies within the NFL. He’s the greatest offensive rookie. And he’s already the most effective offensive linemen. If the NFL truly awarded linemen with the Offensive Rookie of the Yr, Zabel would get it.
Zabel is a particular expertise who’s a cornerstone for this offense — and the No. 1 seed within the NFC.
8. WHAT IF …
We lastly restructured the playoff seeding?
It doesn’t must be too sophisticated. If a division champion doesn’t end the season with a successful document, they don’t seem to be eligible for the postseason. So when that’s the case, it triggers an additional wild-card spot, letting one other workforce (with extra wins) into the postseason.
This wouldn’t wholly destroy the worth of divisional video games. I really like the divisional mannequin, and I really like these rivalries. However this tweak would primarily relegate a division when it’s less than snuff.
In case you look again on the league’s full historical past, you received’t see that it wouldn’t change a lot. Listed here are the groups that made the postseason below .500 — and the way far they’ve gotten, per FOX Sports activities Analysis.
2022: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) — Misplaced within the wild card spherical
2020: Chicago Bears (7-9) — Misplaced within the wild card spherical
2014: Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) — Misplaced within the divisional spherical
2010: Seattle Seahawks (7-9) — Misplaced within the divisional spherical
1982: Cleveland Browns (4-5) — Misplaced in first spherical
1982: Detroit Lions (4-5) — Misplaced in first spherical
It’s onerous to say which workforce would’ve made the playoffs instead of this yr’s Panthers, given how a workforce’s motivation modifications after elimination. (Would the Vikings have added one other QB? May the Lions have received in Week 17?) However on this hypothetical scenario, it’s straightforward to think about we’d see Minnesota (9-8) or, even higher, Detroit (9-8) within the postseason over Carolina.
9. FOR FOOTBALL NERDS ONLY
The Indianapolis Colts ran a pretend punt to transform a fourth down — solely to run one other pretend punt on first down. And each occasions, it was a hit!
I’ll maintain this transient as a result of this recreation felt like a preseason recreation and these two performs felt like a foolish little footnote on this foolish little recreation.
However! However, however, however. Week 18 might be silly. Let’s not simply acknowledge it. Let’s embrace it.
In case you’re nonetheless with me, let’s speak about one thing that occurred that I’ve by no means seen earlier than in my numerous hours of watching soccer.
The Colts ran a pretend punt by which punter Rigoberto Sanchez threw the ball to the right spot for Mo Allie-Cox. After the sport, some folks had been questioning why rookie quarterback Riley Leonard hadn’t been enjoying in Rivers’ stead, due to how properly Leonard performed. I left this recreation questioning why Sanchez wasn’t beginning in all these Rivers video games.
Perhaps coach Shane Steichen was too. As a result of on the following play — a primary down — he left the punt unit on the sector. It was as if the Colts had not realized they transformed fourth down. With the Texans completely confused, the Colts snapped the ball and drew a penalty for 12 males on the sector.
So bizarre. And totally nonsensical.
But in addition … excellent.
Earlier than becoming a member of FOX Sports activities as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years masking the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports activities Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Comply with him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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