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In the AFC Wild Card round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs, the Houston Texans will play the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Texans are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3). An over/under of 38.5 points has been set for the matchup.
Keep up with the 2025 NFL season on FOX Sports.
Texans vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Lines
Texans vs. Steelers Prediction & Pick
The Texans look ready to handle the Steelers tonight, and it goes beyond being listed as the favorite. Houston enters on a nine-game winning streak with quarterback C.J. Stroud setting the tone. Stroud has been sharp behind center, throwing for 3,041 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. The Texans defense has matched that production, ranking first in total defense and second in scoring defense.
Pittsburgh has been uneven, even with a strong finish to the season. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been a bright spot, throwing for 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns. The rest of the Steelers profile has been less convincing, especially on defense. Pittsburgh ranks 29th against the pass and 17th in points allowed, a concerning matchup against a disciplined Houston offense and a defense that consistently controls games.
With the Texans playing their best football and bringing an elite defense into the matchup, Houston has a clear edge. Expect a low-scoring game, with the Texans pulling away late and winning 25-18.
- Pick ATS: Texans (-3)
- Pick OU: Over (38.5)
- Prediction: Texans 25, Steelers 18
Prediction offered by FOX Sports activities’ Sports activities AI. Obtain the FOX Sports activities App without cost entry to Sports activities AI.
The way to Watch Houston vs. Pittsburgh
- Game date: Monday, January 12, 2026
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium
- Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- TV: ABC/ESPN
- Live Boxscore: FOX Sports
Texans vs. Steelers Current Matchups
- In their past two matchups, Pittsburgh holds a split 1-1 record against Houston.
- Over their last two head-to-head matchups, Pittsburgh has racked up 40 points, while Houston has posted 36.
Houston Betting Information
- Houston has nine wins in 17 games versus the spread this season.
- The Texans have been favored by 3 points or more five times this season, and covered the spread in two of those contests.
- Houston has combined with its opponent to gone over the point total in 35.3% of its contests this year (six times in 17 games with a set point total).
- The Texans have compiled a 7-2 record in games they played as moneyline favorite (winning 77.8% of those games).
- The Texans have an implied win probability, based on the moneyline, of 60.8%.
Texans Stats
| Stat | Common (Complete) | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Go yards | 218.1 (3,707) | 14 |
| Rush yards | 108.9 (1,852) | 22 |
| Factors scored | 23.8 (404) | 13 |
| Go yards towards | 183.5 (3,120) | 6 |
| Rush yards towards | 93.7 (1,593) | 4 |
| Factors allowed | 17.4 (295) | 2 |
Houston’s Key Gamers
Offense
- C.J. Stroud has 3,041 passing yards through 14 games this year, averaging 217.2 per game with a 64.5% completion percentage and 19 touchdowns against eight interceptions.
- He has added 209 rushing yards (14.9 per game) and one touchdown on the ground.
- Nico Collins has caught 71 passes on 120 targets for 1,117 total yards (ninth in the NFL) and six touchdowns. He is averaging 4.7 catches and 74.5 yards per game in 15 games.
- Woody Marks has 703 rushing yards with two touchdowns (43.9 yards per game through 16 games).
- Marks has totaled 24 catches on 36 targets for 208 yards, with three receiving TDs.
- Dalton Schultz has 82 catches for 777 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been targeted 106 times in the passing game, and averages 4.8 receptions and 45.7 yards through 17 games played.
Protection
- On the defensive side, Will Anderson Jr. has 54 tackles, 20 TFL, and 12 sacks in 2025.
- Danielle Hunter has 54 tackles, 15 TFL, and 15 sacks this season.
- Kamari Lassiter has totaled 91 tackles, seven TFL, and four interceptions this year.
- Azeez Al-Shaair has two interceptions while adding 103 tackles, one TFL, and nine passes defended.
Pittsburgh Betting Information
- Pittsburgh has compiled a 9-8-0 record against the spread this year.
- This year, the Steelers have an ATS record of 4-2 in their six games as an underdog of 3 points or more.
- This season, 10 Pittsburgh games have gone over the point total.
- This season, the Steelers have won five out of the nine games in which they’ve been the underdog.
- The implied probability of a win by the Steelers based on the moneyline is 43.5%.
Steelers Stats
| Stat | Common (Complete) | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Go yards | 202.4 (3,440) | 22 |
| Rush yards | 103.3 (1,756) | 26 |
| Factors scored | 23.4 (397) | 15 |
| Go yards towards | 243.9 (4,146) | 29 |
| Rush yards towards | 113.1 (1,922) | 13 |
| Factors allowed | 22.8 (387) | 17 |
Pittsburgh’s Key Gamers
Offense
- In 16 games played this year, Aaron Rodgers has totaled 3,322 passing yards, with 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions and completing 65.7% of his passes.
- He’s added 61 yards on the ground (fifth on the Steelers), while scoring one rushing touchdown. He’s averaging 3.8 yards per game and 2.9 per attempt.
- Jaylen Warren averages 59.9 rushing yards per game over 16 games (958 total yards), while scoring six rushing touchdowns.
- Warren has also picked up 333 receiving yards (20.8 per game) on 40 catches (2.5 per game). He’s been targeted 45 times and has caught two touchdown passes.
- Kenneth Gainwell is averaging 31.6 rushing yards per game this season (537 total yards), while scoring five rushing touchdowns.
- Gainwell has helped out in the passing game, picking up 486 receiving yards (28.6 per game) on 73 catches (4.3 per game), while being targeted 85 times. He has three receiving touchdowns.
- D.K. Metcalf has been targeted 99 times, resulting in 59 catches for 850 yards .
Protection
- So far in 2025, Payton Wilson has recorded 109 tackles, six TFL, two sacks, and one interception over 17 games.
- T.J. Watt has 55 tackles, 10 TFL, seven sacks, and two interceptions.
- Over the 2025 season, Patrick Queen has 120 tackles, eight TFL, and one sack in 17 games.
- Alex Highsmith’s stat sheet includes 50 tackles, 15 TFL, 9.5 sacks, and three passes defended in 13 games
FOX Sports activities used expertise offered by Information Skrive and knowledge from Sportradar to create this story.
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