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Current preventing between the Syrian navy and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish-led group controlling most of northeastern Syria, ended with the federal government considerably increasing the territory below its management, notably in Arab-majority areas. Lengthy the SDF’s major patron, Washington brokered a ceasefire however sided with Damascus in declaring that the time had come for the SDF to reintegrate into the brand new Syrian state. This beautiful pivot has been lengthy within the making, particularly for the reason that ouster of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.
US help for the SDF was at all times problematic and finally destined to finish. Throughout my time engaged on the Syria file on the State Division, I joined a number of officers in warning the Obama administration that backing the SDF was a strategic mistake that might lengthen the battle and deepen sectarian tensions.
It could have been wiser — although harder — to deal with the basis causes that enabled the rise of ISIL (ISIS): al-Assad’s repression of his folks and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s sectarian insurance policies. As a substitute, Washington risked fracturing Syria and undermining its ties with Turkiye.
The SDF was dominated by hardline Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration (PKK) components that have been actively preventing Turkiye, a crucial NATO ally. The group was additionally deeply at odds with the remainder of the Syrian opposition and with most Kurdish factions in Syria and Iraq. We argued that whether or not al-Assad or the opposition finally prevailed, the SDF would finally be pressured to reintegrate right into a state construction led by the victor.
Nonetheless, the choice was made to enlist the SDF within the battle in opposition to ISIL, whereas largely sidelining al-Assad’s crimes in opposition to his personal folks. Quick ahead to at the moment, and an final result beneficial to Washington seems to be unfolding, regardless of its function in creating the issue within the first place.
First, the worst-case state of affairs — retaliation by a victorious opposition in opposition to Kurdish civilians — has not materialised. Quite the opposite, the Syrian authorities has gone to nice lengths to reassure the Kurdish group that it is going to be protected, whereas establishing humanitarian corridors for these affected by the preventing.
On January 16, President Ahmed al-Sharaa issued a decree granting citizenship to Kurds and recognising Kurdish as a nationwide language alongside Arabic. The timing was impeccable, undercutting the SDF’s major declare to legitimacy as the only protector of Kurdish rights and freedoms. Furthermore, Syrian navy and safety forces largely prevented repeating earlier errors seen alongside the coast and in Suwayda, the place violence in opposition to minority communities had occurred.
Second, the Syrian navy demonstrated spectacular operational proficiency in defeating a US-trained and geared up pressure that had lengthy been considered as the one cohesive associate able to countering ISIL and different extremist threats.
Al-Sharaa’s victory can have a robust demonstration impact, reinforcing Washington’s notion that it now has a prepared and succesful navy associate in Damascus. This opens new strategic choices for the US because it reassesses the scope and period of its navy presence in northeastern Syria.
Third, the federal government gained management over very important oil and fuel fields within the northeast; it will considerably speed up Syria’s financial restoration whereas lowering its dependence on US monetary help. The administration of US President Donald Trump needs Syria to develop into economically viable as a partial return on its gamble on al-Sharaa and his authorities.
Accounting for greater than 80 % of Syria’s oil and fuel manufacturing, these fields will seemingly entice international funding. Whereas US vitality companies might take part, thereby benefitting the US financial system, the Syrian authorities can be looking for to diversify its funding companions via agreements with a number of nations.
In fact, these developments stay fluid, and far can change within the coming weeks and months. After its fast features, Damascus could be smart to pursue a negotiated settlement with the SDF because it retreats to predominantly Kurdish areas.
Persevering with preventing would carry extreme humanitarian and reputational prices. On January 18, al-Sharaa introduced a US-mediated ceasefire that included integrating SDF establishments into the central authorities constructions. Nonetheless, talks on the next day did not resolve the thorny situation of tips on how to incorporate SDF navy items.
Each side ought to give attention to implementing the January 18 settlement reasonably than drifting in direction of full-scale confrontation. Al-Sharaa clearly holds the higher hand, however he can additional exhibit statesmanship by signalling, each domestically and internationally, his dedication to a peaceable decision.
For the SDF management, choices are more and more restricted given latest battlefield losses and sustained US stress to combine. As tough as it might be, the second has arrived. The present pause in hostilities affords a possibility to safe particular administrative preparations in Kurdish-majority cities and areas, corresponding to permitting SDF fighters to proceed serving regionally at the same time as they combine into the nationwide safety equipment.
These seismic shifts mirror al-Sharaa’s astute studying of US strategic pursuits and his means to behave accordingly. Washington has lengthy favoured a unified, secure Syria that poses no menace to its neighbours. For many years, the US tolerated the Assad regime’s brutalities as a result of it broadly maintained these circumstances.
With Syria at the moment clearly incapable of threatening regional stability, Trump’s central concern has been whether or not the nation’s new management can reunify the nation whereas preserving order. Al-Sharaa’s latest manoeuvres counsel he might have taken a decisive step in direction of answering that query.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
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