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Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
It’s time to bet college football.
We’ve got five FBS games Saturday for Week 0, then the entire neighborhood joins the party next weekend for Week 1. Pretty soon we’ll be handicapping games like Texas-Ohio State, Notre Dame-Miami and LSU-Clemson.
Rejoice.
After a tough start to the season, last year’s weekly picks finished in the black at 54-47 for +2.6 units. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I’m betting with my own money.
Let’s go to work.
Kansas (-13) vs. Fresno State
The Jayhawks underachieved big time last year.
After a 9-4 campaign in 2023, KU brought back its best running back and top three wide receivers in 2024. Conventional wisdom forecasted the best of times. Then quarterback Jalon Daniels got hurt early — played hurt, too — and Kansas flubbed away multiple one-score games.
It was one of those years.
I have too much belief in head coach Lance Leipold to think Kansas will underachieve in back-to-back seasons. He’s got two new coordinators in the mix, and Daniels is back in the saddle for one more rodeo.
This line opened Kansas -14.5 in the summer, and money has driven it through that key 14 down to 12.5. I understand it, but I still think the betting market is putting too much stock into what KU did last year. Last year is over.
I expect Kansas to open its new stadium with a bang and lay the hammer against an inferior team. My power ratings have this game closer to -17.
Rock Chalk.
PICK: Kansas (-13) to win by more than 13 points
UNLV (-27) vs. Idaho State
The Dan Mullen era begins in Las Vegas.
I have plenty of friends in the desert, some of whom are boosters for the Rebels program. These guys are raving about Mullen’s roster, and they believe UNLV won’t miss a beat without Barry Odom. It’s easy to get behind that logic, considering Mullen did some damage in the mighty SEC for years.
At the end of the day, we’re talking about Idaho State. Everything has to go right for the Bengals, and it still might not be enough to cover. I think UNLV gets ahead early against a very weak defense, and I’ve got no reason to believe Mullen will take his foot off the gas in his Vegas coaching premiere.
Don’t be scared to lay the big number.
PICK: UNLV (-27) to win by more than 27 points
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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