Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Buckle up if you haven’t already.
The Philadelphia Eagles begin defending their Super Bowl trophy Thursday night against the Dallas Cowboys, their longtime rival, and with that, the NFL season is off and running.
For most of the offseason, Philadelphia sat around a 6.5-point home favorite with some 7s scattered across the betting screen. Then, Dallas traded its superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers.
“I didn’t think it would actually happen,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons told me. “We thought [Parsons] would sit out coaching camp then simply signal the week of the primary recreation like most gamers do.
“We moved proper once we discovered in regards to the commerce. It slowly went to [Eagles] -7.5, then again to -7, -120. By Monday morning, the entire market was transferring, so we went to -7.5 and now -8. Some are pushing -9 for teasers.
“It has nothing to do with cash.”
Say what?
“Wiseguys aren’t betting Philadelphia at unhealthy numbers,” Salmons continued. “Due to final yr’s success, bettors are obsessive about teasers, so books are going as excessive as they will to see if there’s take again on Dallas.”
Take again hasn’t occurred but, though it’s not troublesome to examine a sensible man or sensible group coming in day of the sport to take a “bloated quantity” with the Cowboys.
Parsons was extraordinarily worthwhile, however +8.5 is +8.5.
We’ll see how a lot the Eagles lean on reigning Offensive Participant of the 12 months Saquon Barkley off a season the place he touched the ball nearly 500 instances.
“He was clearly an enormous difference-maker final yr,” Salmons stated. “The one factor the Eagles by no means had over the previous couple of years was a home-run hitter at operating again. Once they obtained one, it modified all the things.
“They went again to their bread and butter and ran the rock.”
Dallas Cowboys named third-least optimistic fanbase
Assuming well being, the Eagles are clearly the crew to beat within the NFC East, a division that hasn’t seen back-to-back champions since 2004.
And whereas Philadelphia is favored, bettors are firing elsewhere.
“Dallas is the largest divisional legal responsibility we’ve proper now,” Salmons reported. “We additionally wrote a $1,400 wager on the New York Giants at 31-1.
“The Giants have an opportunity to be respectable. They’ve a lot expertise on the ability positions proper now. Daniel Jones was simply so unhealthy. This yr to final yr, there’s a lot extra expertise. [Russell] Wilson can throw the deep ball, too, and Nabers is a top-10 receiver within the league.
“Including Abdul Carter to the protection frees up different guys.”
As for Thursday night time, most sportsbooks can be rooting for Dallas, particularly to knock out moneyline parlays and teasers hooked to Philly. Odds are good an Eagles 1 or 2-point win could be the proper outcome for the home.
Don’t rely out a Dak Prescott fireworks present. If the Dallas offensive line retains Prescott upright, he’s obtained a slew of fellows who could make performs in house.
“I anticipate a aggressive recreation,” Salmons admitted.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and the BetMGM Community. He beforehand labored for WGN Radio, NBC Sports activities and VSiN. Observe him on Twitter @spshoot.
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