It all comes down to one final week, with plenty still left to play for after an almost inconceivable start to September. Only two teams have clinched their respective divisions and only three others have guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.
Amid the chaos are some spectacular September surges and unbelievable late-season collapses. Could the Tigers really blow a 10-game division lead in less than a month?
If the season ended today, a Mets team that had the best record in baseball back in June and an Astros team that led the American League West by six games in late July would both miss the playoffs.
Meanwhile, a Mariners team that was four games back in the AL West on Sept. 3 enters the final week with a three-game lead in the division. Even more stunning, a Guardians squad that was in third place and 11 games back in the division as recently as Sept. 4 is now just one game behind the free-falling Tigers in the AL Central. Cleveland currently holds the final wild-card spot over Houston based on the tiebreaker.
For the final contender rankings of the season, we’ll include what’s ahead and what’s at stake for each playoff hopeful with the postseason on the horizon.
(Note: With only one week to go, only teams within three games of a playoff spot are included in these rankings. The Rangers were knocked off the list this week.)
The Brewers are only playing .500 baseball since Aug. 19, but they’ve clinched both the NL Central and a first-round bye nonetheless. Barring a collapse this week, they’re still in great shape to finish with MLB’s best record and hold home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They have a three-game lead and the tiebreaker on the Phillies, and they hold a five-game lead on the AL-leading Blue Jays. Milwaukee finishes the regular season by going to San Diego and hosting Cincinnati, two teams still playing for a lot.
They have the East wrapped up and should soon be joining the Brewers with a first-round bye. After taking two of three games in Los Angeles last week, the Phillies have a four-game lead and the tiebreaker on the NL West-leading Dodgers for the No. 2 seed, and now they get to finish the season at home against the Marlins and Twins. Most importantly for their playoff hopes, Trea Turner appears to be nearing a return.
The Blue Jays aren’t exactly surging into the final week of the season after the offense went quiet during a 3-4 week against the Rays and Royals, but Toronto still has the best record in the American League and a two-game lead on the Yankees for the division lead entering the season’s final week. They also have a five-game lead on the Red Sox as they get set to face Boston before ending the season hosting the Rays. As Toronto attempts to secure both the AL’s top seed and the AL East title, it’s worth noting that the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker against the Yankees as well as the first-place Mariners and Tigers.
If the reigning champs needed any more motivation, they now have the chance to send Clayton Kershaw out with a third World Series title. That quest won’t be made easier by a decaying bullpen that collapsed again early last week against Philadelphia — and, in doing so, made it highly unlikely that they’ll get a first-round bye. But the Dodgers clinched a playoff spot last week and can clinch the NL West — and home field in the wild-card round — as early as Tuesday in Arizona before they finish the year in Seattle.
The Mariners were four games back in the AL West as recently as Sept 3; they now hold a three-game lead in the division after sweeping the Astros over the weekend and hold the important tiebreaker over Houston. They’ve won 14 of their last 15 games and are realizing the potential that seemed possible after reloading their roster at the deadline. They’d have a first-round bye if the season ended today and hold the tiebreaker against both teams vying for the AL Central title. They host the Rockies and the Dodgers next week; it’s possible by the weekend, both West divisions are already clinched.
After winning series against the lowly Twins and Orioles, the Yankees are just two games back of the Blue Jays. It’s really more like three, since Toronto holds the tiebreaker, but the Yankees still have a shot to win the AL East — and hold the top seed in the AL — as they finish the season hosting the White Sox and Orioles. They have a better record than the first-place Mariners and Tigers and hold the tiebreaker over Seattle.
Getting swept in Cincinnati eliminated any hopes the Cubs had of stealing the division from the Brewers. It also cracked the playoff door open for the Reds. Right now, there’s a strong chance the Cubs will host the Padres in the wild-card series. They hold a comfortable three-game lead on San Diego for the top wild-card spot and won’t be caught by the Reds, Mets or D-backs, who are jockeying for the wild-card spot. The Cubs host the Mets and Cardinals this week.
FanGraphs gave the Guardians less than a 3% chance to make the playoffs earlier this month. Those odds are now up to 58.2% after a stunning September surge. They’ve won 15 of their last 17 games to go from 11 games back in the AL Central to just one game back of the spiraling Tigers with a massive series against Detroit up next on the docket. Cleveland would have to win just one of those games to secure the division tiebreaker. But the Guardians don’t need to win the AL Central to make the playoffs. They’re currently tied with the Astros for the final wild-card spot and hold the tiebreaker against Houston, too. They’ll finish the season against a Rangers team that could be eliminated from playoff contention by the time they face off.
They’ve only won three of their last eight series, and those three series wins were against the White Sox and the Rockies (twice). They just dropped a series to the Mets but still have a five-game advantage (and the tiebreaker) over them. If the season ended now, the Padres would travel to Chicago for the wild-card round. The Cubs have a three-game lead over the Padres for seeding purposes, and they split the season series, so a tiebreaker would be broken by intradivision record. This week, San Diego will host Milwaukee and an Arizona team that’s trying to claw into the playoff mix.
They’ve lost six of their last 10 games and have seen their hopes of winning the East basically dashed in the process. Right now, they just have to focus on clinching a playoff spot. The Red Sox are only a game ahead of the Guardians and Astros, who are jockeying for the final wild-card spot, but hold the tiebreaker over both of them. Tiebreakers against the Mariners and Tigers would come down to intradivision records. Boston travels to Toronto before hosting a Detroit team that’s suddenly fighting to hold on in the Central.
Uh, guys? What’s going on? The Tigers led the division by 14 games, on July 8, 11.5 games on Aug. 23 and 10 games on Sept. 3. Now, after an epic collapse down the stretch — 1-9 in the last 10 games, 5-13 in September, 26-32 in the second half — the division’s up for grabs with a massive series ahead to start the week against the Guardians. The Tigers have a one-game lead on Cleveland and would need to sweep the series to secure the tiebreaker. They’ll end the regular season in Boston.
After getting swept at home by the Mariners, they just need to worry about making it into the dance. The Astros are tied for the final wild-card spot with the Guardians and would lose the tiebreaker against Cleveland. They’d also lose tiebreakers against Boston, Detroit and the Seattle team they’re chasing in the division. It helps that the Astros end the season in Sacramento and Anaheim, but they have work to do to keep their postseason hopes alive after going 29-37 since sweeping the Dodgers in July.
What a huge week for the Reds, who took a series in St. Louis before sweeping a four-game set against the Cubs to jump right into the playoff mix. The Reds hold the tiebreaker over both the Mets and Diamondbacks, who are the other two teams vying for the final wild-card spot. They have a good opportunity to stretch their advantage on the Mets when they host the Pirates this week before ending the season in Milwaukee. By then, the Brewers might have already wrapped up home field throughout the playoffs.
They were 62-44 on July 27 and led the NL East by 1.5 games. Since then, the Mets have won just 18 of their last 50 games in what could end up a historic collapse if they miss the playoffs. That’s what would happen if the season ended today. They have the same record as the Reds for the final wild-card spot, but Cincinnati holds the tiebreaker. They would win the tiebreaker against the Giants, while the tiebreaker against the Diamondbacks would come down to intradivision record. The Mets will try to save their season on the road, traveling to face the Cubs and Marlins.
The Diamondbacks have a better record since selling at the break than they did in the first half. After winning series against the Giants and Phillies last week, they’re now only one game back for the final wild-card spot. However, they’d lose the tiebreaker against the Reds, while the Mets tiebreaker would come down to intradivision record. The D-backs finish the year with two straight NL West battles against the Dodgers and Padres.
The Giants’ playoff odds have fallen below 1%, according to FanGraphs, after going 2-5 last week against the division foe D-backs and Dodgers. They’ve now lost eight of their last 11 games, are three games out of the final wild-card spot, and don’t hold the tiebreaker against the Mets or Diamondbacks. A tiebreaker against the Reds would come down to intradivision record. At least the road ahead eases up; they host the Cardinals and Rockies to finish the year.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.
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