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Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
We got some of the most thrilling football of the year last week.
Truthfully, the excitement won’t be quite as high in Week 6, but there are still a few games that I think are worth watching and wagering.
Let’s take a look at what I’m backing this weekend.
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Washington @ Maryland
Maryland is 4-0 and its season win total is 4.5. The program decided to start five-star true freshman Malik Washington, and it has been rewarded with improving play each week. Washington is completing only around 60% of passes but has taken care of the ball with just a single interception.
Those are numbers you can live with from a true freshman.
Maryland can’t run the ball, but it is playing a Huskies defense that’s not very good. UW will need turnovers and fourth-down stops for opponents not to score. Washington has only forced 13 punts this season in four games and six of those were against UC Davis in Week 2.
The Huskies defense ranks 85th on third down and is decent at rushing the passer but does not sack the quarterback. UW is also without key defensive players due to injury, with a few others questionable to play this week.
In short, I think Maryland will move the ball on Washington.
Washington’s offense is, in fact, dynamic. Demond Williams is a true dual-threat quarterback. He’s thrown for 951 yards and has a 75% completion percentage. He’s also rushed for 237 yards, but that includes sack yardage.
UW running back Jonah Coleman has over 400 yards on the ground with nine touchdowns. Wide receiver Denzel Boston will be a first-round pick. The Washington offensive line is fine but not great. It gets the job done. The offense is second in points per drive. However, it has only played one defense worth anything and it scored six against the Buckeyes.
Now, let’s go back to Maryland.
The Terps defense is good on paper. It is seventh in points per drive, but it has played no one. I’m not sure how reliable those defensive stats are, but Ohio State provided the blueprint to stopping Washington’s offense: You have to keep Williams in the pocket and make him beat you with his arm.
Maryland’s defensive line has an above-average havoc rate and I believe it can do just that.
This is Jedd Fisch’s second season at Washington and the Huskies have yet to prove they can play the same on the road as at home. They lost all six road games last season and were up by a single score late in the third quarter against Washington State before a pick-six and a fumble by the Cougars made this game a four-touchdown win for the Huskies.
Washington has to travel all the way to Maryland after an emotional loss to the Buckeyes on Saturday. Maryland is off a bye and I think this is a tough spot for the Huskies.
PICK: Maryland (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
No. 22 Illinois @ Purdue
I’m making a play on fading Illinois after its huge win.
The Illini had a unique two weeks. They lost to Indiana 63-10 and then followed that up by beating a ranked USC team at home by a couple of points. Now they head to sleepy Purdue after two hugely emotional games.
Purdue is not very good, even though the Boilermakers hung tough with USC for three quarters just a few weeks ago. After that, they allowed 56 points to Notre Dame in a game that was much closer before a long rain delay.
Purdue is off a bye and is a well-coached squad. We’ve seen improvement in the Boilermakers offense each week against better competition, and it is currently 47th in points per drive on offense. The Illinois defense is 87th in yards per drive and very poor on third down, ranking 113th in third-down defense. Not great. And with Purdue off a bye, that squad will have some new things on offense.
For this wager to work, I’d need Purdue’s defense to come alive.
Purdue has a ton of blown blocks upfront and its offensive line can’t block at all. The Boilermakers’ running backs break no tackles, and Purdue faces a ton of third-and-longs.
I need Purdue to create some havoc to have a chance.
I like the Boilermakers to cover the first half instead of the full game because I’m not sure if they can hold up over four quarters against Illinois. Purdue is going to start fast, and Illinois will be sleepy after those big games.
PICK: Purdue (+5.5) to trail by fewer than 5.5 points or lead at halftime
Colorado @ TCU
It’s time to fade the Buffaloes on the road after two straight home games in which they covered.
They beat Wyoming by 17 to cover and then held on to cover against BYU after going up 14-0 and covering with a 24-21 loss. So not the most dominant performance after that fast start. Colorado has played one road game and lost to Houston by 16 points.
The Buffs offense is middle-of-the-pack in about everything. It doesn’t do anything that well and is disjointed. TCU’s defense is 91st in yards per play but does stop the run well, so that’s a positive. The Horned Frogs have struggled to stop the pass but have also played teams like Arizona State and SMU, who are far better at passing than Colorado. Colorado’s one-dimensional offensive attack allows defenses to cover the pass easier.
TCU’s advantage will be its offense against a Colorado defense that isn’t good. The Buffs are 104th in yards per play and 85th in points per drive. They are 119th in havoc rate but have been decent on third down. TCU’s offense is 26th in yards per play and 30th in points per drive. The Frogs stay away from three-and-outs and have been outstanding on third down.
After a game with three offensive turnovers against Arizona State, I’d imagine TCU plays a cleaner game this weekend.
Finally, I just think fading Colorado’s coaching staff on the road in a hostile game is a good opportunity to win a wager. That staff just doesn’t manage end-of-half or game situations all that well. CU is conservative, and it punts and kicks field goals too often. I just don’t believe that approach wins that often on the road.
PICK: TCU (-13.5) to win by more than 13.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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