Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
We did some winning last week. You’re not supposed to ever get too high on yourself, but seeing a few go through the hoop feels nice.
Let’s look at what we’ve got cooking for college football Week 6.
Last Week: 7-2
Season: 17-10-1
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
Michigan State @ Nebraska
This could go very badly for a Michigan State defense that allowed 390 through the air and 40 points to Boston College, and 523 yards and 45 points to USC. We haven’t seen Nebraska since losing by a field goal at home to Michigan in a game where the Cornhuskers allowed 105 passing yards. Last time I checked, I don’t see a little number next to Michigan State indicating they are ranked, which likely means Dylan Raiola and the Huskers roll here.
PICK: Nebraska (-11.5) to win by more than 11.5 points
No. 16 Vanderbilt @ No. 10 Alabama
The next person I hear say the words, “I like Alabama this week,” will be the first. I get it. Bama is coming off a big win at Georgia and Kalen DeBoer hasn’t been great as a big favorite. But this feels like it’s been one-way traffic on the ‘dog, and we’re getting the better team with some major revenge on the cheap. Vanderbilt is 5-0 and Clark Lea has done a complete 180 in terms of culture and winning. I just dunno, though. You run through the slate. You’ve got an FCS team. There’s VT, which fired its coach. South Carolina without LaNorris Sellers, Georgia State and Utah State. I could be reading this completely wrong, but I might even be interested in taking some plus money on the Tide at some adjusted numbers.
PICK: Alabama (-10.5) to win by more than 10.5 points
Iowa State @ Cincinnati
I got a great CLV award last week with Arizona at Iowa State, and of course, we know how that one went. Clones head to Nippert this week and take on a sneaky good Bearcat team coming off a road win at Kansas. UC’s lone blemish is by a field goal in what was essentially a road game against Nebraska in Kansas City. UC QB Brandon Sorsby has been really good this year, and he should have TE Joe Royer back as a target. More importantly, DL Dontay Corleone will be back to help the UC defense against an Iowa State offense that got some help last week from Arizona turnovers, yet didn’t crack the 400-yard mark. I’m sure a lot of people will notice we have the unranked team at home favored over the ranked team. And that was the case last week in another Big 12 game when Arizona State beat TCU in Tempe.
PICK: Cincinnati (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
No. 22 Illinois @ Purdue
This is a bad spot for the Illini, coming off a home upset win over USC and with the No. 1 team in the country visiting Champaign next week. Purdue has clearly improved in Barry Odom’s first season, despite giving up 56 last game to Notre Dame, with a ton of that damage done on the ground. People will immediately notice USC beat Purdue 33-17 in a game in which Purdue was -3 in turnovers and had three empty red-zone trips. Of course, Illinois beat USC last week and that transitive property might be counted on by some. Last year, Illinois needed a miracle to beat a Purdue team 50-49 in OT — a team that went winless in the Big Ten. I’ll grab the points here.
PICK: Purdue (+9.5) to lose by fewer than 9.5 points or win outright
Mississippi State @ No. 6 Texas A&M
Last week’s final score against Auburn was not indicative of the domination the Aggies laid on the Tigers. Total yards were 414 to 177. Auburn didn’t convert a single third down. Only A&M’s own third-down struggles, 13 penalties and a turnover deep in Auburn territory kept this close. The Bulldogs are clearly improved from last year’s 2-10 season, but it does worry me they gave up 335 through the air last week to Tennessee. Marcel Reed and former MSU WR Mario Craver might eat in a big way Saturday night.
PICK: Texas A&M (-14.5) to win by more than 14.5 points
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON MONEYLINE
Last Week: 2-5, -.85
Season: 10-15, +7.7
Wake Forest +220
Purdue +285
BEAR BYTES
Ranked teams on the road vs. unranked opponents
Last weekend, two lost outright, two won in overtime and two needed late scores to win in regulation. This week there are six such games: No. 7 Penn State at UCLA, No. 9 Texas at Florida, No. 11 Texas Tech at Houston, No. 14 Iowa State at Cincinnati (Cincinnati is favored), No. 22 Illinois at Purdue and No. 24 Virginia at Louisville (Louisville is favored). In addition to the two ranked matchups, there are 13 ranked teams taking on unranked teams. In those games, 11 of the 13 are favored. Those 11 favorites are favored by an average of 19.5 points and just two are favored by single digits.
No. 3 Miami @ No. 18 Florida State
In the last 14 meetings, there have been just three upsets. In the previous nine, eight times the underdog won outright. Each of the last four and 11 of the last 14 meetings have gone Under the total. This is the 11th time FSU has been a home underdog under Mike Norvell. The Noles have won three of the previous 10 outright, including two over top-10 opponents — No. 8 Alabama to start this season as a 13.5-point ‘dog and over No. 5 North Carolina in 2020 as a 13.5-point ’dog. Last year, on the road against ranked teams, Carson Beck completed 57.4% of his passes with three touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he was sacked eight times. He threw for under 190 yards in two of the three games. Those games were against Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama, which finished the season third, fourth and ninth nationally in opponents’ yards per game. Florida State allowed 5.2 YPP and over 210 yards both rushing and passing last week in a loss at Virginia. Three teams have not trailed in a game this season — Miami, Texas Tech and Maryland.
No. 16 Vanderbilt @ No. 10 Alabama
Since the start of last year, Vanderbilt is 9-2 against the spread as a ‘dog, with five outright wins. Included in that was a win over then No. 1 Alabama as a 23.5-point ’dog and a 3-point loss to No. 5 Texas as a 17-point ‘dog. Kalen Deboer, as Power 4 head coach, is 23-5 straight up as a double-digit favorite (9-4 at Alabama). As an underdog, he’s 7-1 straight up and against the spread. Since the start of last season, 36 times a Power 4 double-digit favorite has lost outright. In four of those 36 instances, it’s been Alabama which was beaten. The Tide are the only Power 4 team that has lost more than twice in that role in that span. Alabama is the only Power 4 team in the country without a turnover this season.
Air Force @ Navy
In the last 26 games between service academies, underdogs are 20-6 against the spread with 13 outright wins. However, in the last 20 years, there have been just 19 games with a double-digit spread. There has been just one upset and that was Army winning at Air Force in 2023 as a 19-point underdog.
Michigan State @ Nebraska
Dating back to 2007, Nebraska is 6-18 against the spread at home as a double-digit favorite against Power 5 teams (0-1 under Matt Rhule; a 17-9 win over Northwestern as an 11-point favorite).
Iowa State @ Cincinnati
Dating back to 2021, there have been 10 instances of an unranked team being favored at home over a top-15 team. Those 10 teams won seven of the 10 games outright. Since 2015, there have been nine previous instances of an unranked team favored at home over an undefeated top-15 team. Those nine teams won seven outright. One of the losses came last year, when UCF was a 2-point favorite over 7-0 BYU and lost by 13. In the last 12 games in which Iowa State has been involved in a game with a spread between -4 and +4, the Cyclones have won nine of them. This snapped a run where Iowa State lost eight straight and 11 of 12 such games. Iowa State has been penalized for just 20.0 YPG. Only Army has been flagged for fewer yards per game.
Kentucky @ No. 12 Georgia
In the last six years against Georgia, Kentucky has been an underdog of at least 17 points five times and at least a 20-point dog four times. Kentucky covered all five games.
Wisconsin @ No. 20 Michigan
This is the second time in three games that Wisconsin is an underdog of at least 17 points. From 1993 to 2024, a span of 408 games, the Badgers were a 17-point ‘dog twice.
Clemson @ North Carolina
Clemson has lost four straight and five of its last six games against Power 4 teams. The win came over SMU, which was in its first year in the ACC after being in the AAC.
Of the 68 Power 4 teams, North Carolina is 68th in yards per play (4.9)
Washington @ Maryland
Washington went 0-7, both straight up and against the spread away from home last year (0-5 in true road games).
No. 7 Penn State @ UCLA
UCLA is the only team in the country not to lead at any point in a game this season.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
What did you consider this story?
advisable
Get more from the College Football Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
