To the average Joe or Jane poring over NFL Week 9 odds, it’s a little surprising to see the Chiefs as short road favorites over the Bills.
Perhaps more surprising: Despite a seemingly modest 5-3 record, the Chiefs are once again Super Bowl favorites, too.
“From a bookmaker’s standpoint, it’s not surprising at all,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “To others, it does look a little weird, because the Chiefs are not even leading their division.
“But their power rating is right up there. They’ve got a top-five defense, and if their offense continues to improve, they absolutely deserve to be the favorite.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on the Chiefs-Bills clash and more, as we dive into NFL Week 9 betting nuggets.
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Marquee Matchup
It’s not in prime time, but Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET Chiefs-Bills kickoff is the Grade A game on the NFL Week 9 odds docket.
Kansas City is 5-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). However, that includes a current 5-1 SU and ATS surge, which has bookmakers’ attention.
Caesars Sports opened K.C. as a 1.5-point road favorite and on Tuesday moved to -2, where the line remains Wednesday afternoon. Buffalo (5-2 SU/3-4 ATS) is in the rare spot of not only being an underdog, but a home underdog.
“We could see this maybe go to Chiefs -2.5,” Feazel said. “We’re seeing mostly Chiefs action. The sentiment is that the Chiefs are back, and I don’t see that changing.
“This will be a really high-action game. We’ll be Bills fans and low-scoring-game fans.”
Indeed, the total is 52.5, the highest of all 14 NFL Week 9 games, and the public betting masses will be all over the Over.
NFL Rocks on FOX
Week 9 of the 2022 season is where things really got started for the Lions. At the time, Dan Campbell’s squad was a meager 1-6 SU/3-4 ATS.
But the Lions finished that season on a huge 8-2 SU/9-1 ATS run.
Fast-forward to Week 9 2025: Over the past 55 games, Detroit is 42-13 SU and a veritable free ATM for bettors at 40-14-1 ATS. Covering the spread at a 74% clip over that long a stretch is impressive, to say the least.
The public betting masses expect that to continue this week. Detroit opened -9.5 vs. the Vikings, and though the line is down a tick to -9 midweek, most bettors like the Lions in this 1 p.m. ET matchup on FOX.
“We’ve seen a little sharper action on the Vikings, which is why we’re down to 9,” Feazel said. “But action is the same as we see every week on the Lions, taking them to cover. They cover a lot and don’t take their foot off the gas.
“I think this will be one of our biggest decisions of the week. We need the Vikings to be competitive.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay got there in Week 8, taking the Texans -1 in their 26-15 home win over the 49ers. In Week 9, McKay is getting involved with the first game: the Ravens vs. the Dolphins at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday.
All the buzz is about Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s return, and Baltimore correspondingly being a 7.5-point road favorite. But McKay believes the value is on the underdog Dolphins +7.5.
“That’s my best play so far,” McKay said Wednesday. “Jackson is supposed to be back, but is he healthy? And the Baltimore defense still isn’t that good, with injuries.”
Indeed, a host of Ravens defenders are now on injured reserve.
“Also, Miami has played a Thursday game already this season. The Dolphins were very competitive at Buffalo,” McKay said, alluding to a 31-21 Week 3 loss in a game that was tied at 21 early in the fourth quarter.
NFL Rocks on FOX, Part II
The Broncos are 6-2 SU, but often look more like their 3-5 ATS record. Denver hasn’t exactly been the model of consistency.
Neither have the Texans (3-4 SU and ATS), who, like the Broncos, reached the playoffs last season. Now the two square off in a 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff on FOX.
Caesars opened Denver -1.5 (-105), but late Monday night, the line flipped to Houston -1.5 (-108). The Texans briefly got to -2 on Wednesday afternoon, then went to -1.5 (-117).
“It’s not really that big a move, even though we’re changing favorites,” Feazel said. “It’s mostly two-way action so far. We tend to see sharp money late in the week on the Broncos and Jets, for whatever reason. I could see that happening again.
“There’s also a little bit more money to the Over, but I think that’s because of how low the total is.”
The Broncos-Texans total is at 39.5, the lowest of any game in NFL Week 9 odds. Also, potentially adding to action on the Over: Denver cornerback and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II is out this week with a pectoral strain.
Indiana Jones
Daniel Jones has revived his career and the fate of the Colts, as well. Of course, it helps to have a superb running back such as Jonathan Taylor.
Indy leads the NFL with a 7-1 SU record and is a solid 6-2 ATS, as well.
The Colts travel to Pittsburgh for a 1 p.m. ET Sunday meeting with the Steelers, who have lost two in a row SU and ATS. Indianapolis opened -2.5 (-120) at Caesars, quickly moved to -3 and is -3 (-115) as of Wednesday afternoon.
“This is one of the higher-bet games in this early time slot, and it’s mostly one-way traffic on the Colts,” Feazel said. “They win, and they cover, and that’s what drives action from the public.
“We’ll need Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers to keep this close.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Not much has landed yet in the way of major wagers on NFL Week 9 odds. But there are some notable Super Bowl futures wagers to report.
On Oct. 13, Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy went big on the Patriots, putting down $50,000 at +3500 odds. Earlier this week, Portnoy revealed the DraftKings Sportsbook ticket on X:
If Drake Maye & Co. — currently 6-2 SU and ATS — make a surprising championship run, then Portnoy bags a profit of $1.75 million, for a total payout of $1.8 million.
DraftKings now has the Patriots at +2800.
As noted above, the Colts are just as surprising as the Patriots, if not more. One prescient Caesars Sports customer got in before the season began, on Aug. 28, when Indianapolis was a +12500 long shot (125/1) in Super Bowl 60 odds.
The bettor wagered $8,000 on those odds. Potential profit: One million dollars.
Similarly, in early September, the Colts had even longer odds of +15000. A Caesars bettor put $2,500 on that price, for a potential profit of $375,000.
The 7-1 Colts are now the +1000 sixth choice in Caesars’ Super Bowl futures, a long way from their long-shot days. The only teams ahead of Indy are the Chiefs (+480), Lions (+650), Packers (+750), Bills (+775) and Eagles (+950).
Obviously, those are two really nice tickets to be sitting on. Here’s hoping they stay nice through the first week of February.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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