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The College Football Playoff selection committee loves a good loss.
Just ask Iowa — a team neither I nor the AP ranked — or Texas, which somehow sits behind a Notre Dame squad with losses to Miami and the last undefeated team in the SEC (Texas A&M).
The message is clear: Lose valiantly to a good team, and you might find yourself comfortably inside the top 25. Meanwhile, the Group of 6 teams are left scratching their heads, wondering what more they have to do to earn respect.
Here are my takeaways from the first set of CFP rankings:
1. Ohio State and Indiana lead the way
Perhaps the strongest indication that these two programs are the best in the country is that Iowa — who played Indiana closest so far this season — and Texas — the only team to play Ohio State to a one-score game — are each ranked among the top 20 teams in this week’s CFP ranking.
No team defends like Ohio State. The Buckeyes are giving up just 6.9 points and 214.8 yards per game — both the best marks in the country.
Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are elite on both sides of the ball, leading the country in point differential (+321) and scoring (46.4 points per game), while ranking third in both scoring defense (10.8 PPG allowed) and plays of 20-plus yards (100). Indiana is also one of only two FBS teams with two wins over AP top-10 opponents.
2. Oregon (No. 9) and Ole Miss (No. 6) need to run the table
A few weeks ago, Oregon’s double-overtime win over No. 2 Penn State looked like the best victory in college football. But after Penn State’s five-game skid, the Ducks’ most impressive win is now at Northwestern — the only team they’ve faced with a winning record. In the second half of the season, Dan Lanning’s squad needs to bolster its résumé with wins over tougher opponents like Washington, Iowa, and USC.
While the Rebels are a near lock to make their first College Football Playoff appearance, they’ll likely need to run the table this month to keep that position. With a strength of schedule ranked No. 56 in the FBS, another loss could open the door for a program like Oklahoma or Texas to slip into a spot currently reserved for Ole Miss heading into Week 11.
3. Texas (No. 11) is going to have a difficult time making the 12-team field
The team that opened the season as the AP’s preseason No. 1 might not even make the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Missouri also find themselves on the outside looking in. With Virginia — the highest-ranked ACC team — sitting behind Texas, the Cavaliers would currently claim a 12-team CFP spot as a Power 4 champion with an automatic bid.
For Vanderbilt, the head-to-head loss to Texas is a major setback in any résumé comparison. Missouri’s only losses are to Vanderbilt and Alabama, but the Tigers still lack a signature win.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, might have the best case to climb in the rankings. Wins over Michigan and Tennessee give the Sooners a foundation to argue for a higher spot than Texas in the coming weeks — especially if an ACC champion finishes ahead of this SEC quartet on Selection Sunday.
4. Only 28 teams are still alive in the CFP chase
And that’s it. Already, 108 FBS programs know they are not playing postseason football for a chance at the national championship, and their fans have no chance of hosting a home playoff game.
The 12-team CFP simply doesn’t keep as many programs alive as a 24-team field would. Fewer teams stay in the mix for a postseason run at the national title — or for one more home game in what would be the biggest, loudest atmosphere of the year, and in some places, the biggest ever.
In my 24-team CFP, 43 teams are still in the mix because the format allows for teams to take on three or four losses during the regular season and still have a chance to earn not just a bid to the CFP, but perhaps even a home game as those teams try to make it all the way to the national title game.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him @RJ_Young.
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