The Put up’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 11 slate.
Sunday
Commanders +2.5 over Dolphins
The Commanders ought to be capable of win this recreation simply by operating the ball, which is just about their solely path to victory whereas Jayden Daniels is out. Washington is among the many worst passing offenses within the league proper now, but in addition dealing with a crew that’s giving up 4.9 yards per carry (fifth worst). Washington is No. 19 in general DVOA, forward of the Dolphins (No. 23).
Packers -7 over GIANTS
This line truly went from 7.5 to 7 with the information that Jameis Winston could be beginning for the Giants. I don’t perceive that. Winston makes this recreation extra unstable, however that doesn’t essentially imply higher.
I feel he has been a bit glorified as an improve over Russell Wilson, however that isn’t actuality. In 12 appearances (seven begins) for the Browns final 12 months, Winston had 13 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer ranking of 80.6 (thirty second of 59 certified quarterbacks).
Texans -6 over TITANS
This line has come down within a landing, simply low sufficient for me to wager on it. Houston is the No. 8 ranked crew primarily based on DVOA, whereas the Titans rank thirty second. The Texans are favored by 12.5 on my mannequin, however that quantity is contingent on CJ Stroud beginning. With Davis Mills below heart, I undertaking a five-point distinction within the unfold, so we’re nonetheless get a stable quantity right here. Texans win by a landing.
Bears +3 over VIKINGS
My mannequin has Chicago favored by three factors on this recreation, however I nonetheless perceive whereas they’re underdogs. The Bears have received a ton of 1 possession video games. DVOA hates these two groups, rating the Bears twenty fifth and Vikings twenty second. I’ve been a Caleb Williams fan his entire profession, and must take him right here in opposition to J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings.
STEELERS -5.5 over Bengals
The Bengals’ protection with out Trey Hendrickson is arguably the worst in NFL historical past. I feel we’re getting a reduction on the Steelers this week after a loss to the Chargers. They’ve made some severe adjustments on the defensive facet of the ball, each in scheme and personnel.
The Steelers have TJ Watt and don’t have to blitz. Joe Flacco can’t take care of strain: Flacco has 49 dropbacks with strain, and solely 17 of them have resulted in a completion (41.5 % completion price). Yuck!
Panthers +3.5 over FALCONS
Atlanta’s protection has continued to let down after taking part in a bit higher earlier this 12 months. Permitting 5.2 yards per carry of their final three video games is horrible and Carolina has the fourth greatest offensive line within the NFL proper now. Rico Dowdle goes to chew this recreation to items. Panthers destroy the Falcons.
BILLS -6 over Buccaneers
Snow and rain is being forecast forward of this recreation, and that would lead us to a run-heavy matchup. If I believed the Buccaneers have been wholesome, I’d be extra excited about taking them on this spot. However no, Bucky Irving is out and their dashing offense has been bordering between mediocre and terrible ever since.
The Payments are in a must-win, which isn’t the analytical perspective you’ve come to anticipate from me, however an angle I’m taking regardless.
Chargers -3 over JAGUARS
I don’t love the Chargers’ offensive line, however I actually dislike the Jaguars extra. My mannequin has the Chargers as six-point favorites, and given the Jaguars’ struggles on offense, I feel Los Angeles will do sufficient to snag the win and canopy. The Justin Herbert MVP prepare chugs ahead on Sunday.
49ers -3 over CARDINALS
Too many accidents for Arizona. Dropping Marvin Harrison Jr. is a reliable loss for the Cardinals and one thing I’ve a tough time backing from a betting perspective. Brock Purdy has one thing to show this weekend in his return. I’ll take San Francisco.
Betting on the NFL?
BROWNS +7.5 over Ravens
That is someway solely the third dwelling recreation for the Browns. In what is predicted to be a really windy affair (24 MPH winds) in Cleveland, I’ll take the factors. Lamar Jackson doesn’t look proper and if the Browns can keep away from throwing the ball that’s at all times going to result in extra a aggressive recreation for them.
Their protection is rated No. 4 general in DVOA. My mannequin has the division recreation a bit tighter, with a projected rating of twenty-two.67 to 18.48 in favor of the Ravens. Be sure you get the hook. In any other case move.
RAMS -3 over Seahawks
Seattle has been smashing everybody, however that received’t cease me from supporting the Tremendous Bowl contending Rams on this absolute showdown within the 4 o’clock window.
Each groups are high 10 in yards per carry allowed, yards per move try allowed, and yards per play. The Rams’ line of defense controls Sam Darnold sufficient to get a win.
Chiefs -4 over BRONCOS
There’s quite a bit to love in regards to the Denver Broncos. Their protection is permitting the least yards per play within the NFL. And whereas my mannequin loves the Broncos on this spot (it has this recreation as a choose ’em) I’m not prepared to again it right here.
I just like the below right here as a wager, which additionally pulls itself in direction of the underdog, however Bo Nix has had the coaching wheels on all season. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs had two weeks to arrange for this key divisional matchup. I’ll take the higher quarterback.
Lions +2.5 over EAGLES
Detroit has been buzzing and Dan Campbell taking up play calling duties is music to my (and bettors’) ears. The Lions are six in yards per play final three video games and the Eagles are twenty first in yards per rush try allowed. We noticed much more movement and play motion from the Lions final week, I think we get much more in Philadelphia.
MONDAY
Cowboys -3.5 over RAIDERS
My mannequin has the Cowboys favored by 4 factors and the Raiders are the No. 28 crew by way of DVOA. Geno Smith vs. Dak Prescott? Las Vegas can’t block a lot in any respect and the Cowboys are the “A. Facet” of most key positions. Again Dallas to snag the win and canopy.
Final week: 6-7
Season: 66-71
Why Belief New York Put up Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt however he has a black belt in MMA betting. Through the soccer season he’s showcased large income at The Put up within the participant prop market the final two seasons. Whereas consistently betting lengthy photographs, his return on funding is 30.15 % since 2022.
