By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports activities
The wild Mountain West continues to maintain followers and oddsmakers guessing.
With two weeks remaining within the common season, seven groups are nonetheless alive for a spot within the convention title recreation.
San Diego State is within the driver’s seat for a kind of spots in the intervening time, however loads can change over the subsequent two weekends.
With a win this week, the Aztecs may lock up a kind of spots, however they would wish some assist to take action. Along with knocking off San Jose State, SDSU would additionally want losses by Fresno State, New Mexico and Boise State.
That’s loads of “ands”….And I feel we go into the ultimate weekend of the 12 months with each spots nonetheless within the air. Heading into this weekend, the chance is there for a seven-way tie at 5-3 within the league.
Might something be extra becoming this season? Carry on the chaos, I’m right here for it! And why not let everybody see the upheaval?
You bought it. All 12 convention squads are in motion this week with 5 of the six matchups airing nationally.
Here’s a have a look at the six-game MW slate.
Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors at UNLV Rebels
Friday, November 21
7:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: UNLV -3
Over/Beneath: 64.5
This one has some big implications within the Mountain West race.
The final time the Rainbow Warriors had been on the sector they put it to San Diego State. UH enters this brief week after a bye week, with the Rebels having survived a scare from Utah State in double extra time final Saturday.
UNLV might want to get the bottom recreation established early. The Rebels are working the ball for 208 yards per victory this season, nearly 35 yards higher per recreation than of their two defeats.
Hawaii has been stable in opposition to the run this season, holding opponents to only 132.5 yards per outing and 128.4 of their wins. Whichever staff controls the road of scrimmage when UNLV has the ball may have an edge.
The Warriors will wish to push the tempo greater than UNLV. The Rebels will wish to create takeaways. That and success within the run recreation may get Hawaii in uncomfortable conditions.
The important thing for Hawaii on offense shall be hitting on some explosives. The Rebels have allowed 163 performs this season of 10+ yards, one hundred and thirtieth within the nation, and their 60 performs allowed of 20+ yards are greater than all however two groups within the nation.
The actual key on this recreation figures to be turnovers, although. UH is +5 within the turnover division of their seven wins this season and -9 within the three losses. UNLV’s 18 turnovers compelled this season is tied for the 14th-most within the nation.
The Rebels have solely produced two takeaways of their final three video games. If UNLV is to carry serve at dwelling, they might want to get again to their ball-hawking methods.
The Rebels have the house subject benefit, however Hawaii has been enjoying higher soccer currently. UH will get an enormous street win on Friday.
In opposition to the unfold: Hawai’i
Factors Whole: Beneath
Outright winner: Hawai’i
Nevada Wolf Pack at Wyoming Cowboys
Saturday, November 22
11:00 AM PT, MW Community
Line: Wyoming -6.5
Over/Beneath: 41.5
In an unpredictable MW season, it appeared just like the one fixed can be Nevada struggling to place factors on the board, and struggling to win video games.
Nevada had scored 126 factors in 9 video games coming into final week, reaching the 20-point mark solely twice this season, with a high-water mark of twenty-two.
Then got here the offensive explosion in opposition to San Jose State.
The Pack practically doubled their season TD complete in a single recreation, discovering the top zone seven occasions within the lopsided win.
And Nevada scored in all methods conceivable. Along with the 5 offensive TDs, the protection bought concerned with a 66-yard interception return, and the particular groups turned in a 99-yard kick return.
The massive distinction this week vs. final week shall be Wyoming’s capability to play some protection. San Jose State is missing in that part of the sport, however the Pack restricted an explosive assault to only 10 factors.
Whereas the Cowboys deliver a stable protection to the desk week in and week out, UW is challenged a bit on the offensive aspect of issues.
Nevada ranks 74th within the nation in opposition to the run. Samuel Tote Harris is coming off his second 100-yard recreation of the season having torched Fresno State at 8.5 yards per pop final recreation.
Search for a heavy dose on the bottom for Wyoming.
The Cowboys have been wonderful in opposition to the move this season however have had points slowing groups down on the bottom at occasions. UW might want to take Caleb Ramseur and the bottom assault away. Make Carter Jones beat you together with his arm.
The Cowboys grind this one out for a win.
In opposition to the unfold: Wyoming
Factors Whole: Beneath
Outright winner: Wyoming
New Mexico Lobos at Air Power Falcons
Saturday, November 22
4:00 PM PT, CBS Sports activities Community
Line: New Mexico -3.5
Over/Beneath: 55.5
New Mexico is correct in the midst of the convention race whereas Air Power is caught enjoying out the season at 3-7.
This one is attention-grabbing as a result of, at first look, you’d count on the sport to be excessive scoring with each offenses producing and the defenses have their points. Nevertheless, the power of the Lobos protection has been shutting down the run recreation.
New Mexico is seventeenth within the nation in opposition to the run this season, limiting opponents to only over 105 yards on the bottom per outing.
The Falcons, after all, will lean heavy on the bottom recreation as they at all times do. Air Power is at the moment third within the nation, working for 271.1 yards per contest.
The Falcons will definitely get their yards, however they won’t come as simply as anticipated.
Air Power has gotten torched on protection this season, rating 131st within the nation in opposition to the move, and permitting nearly 180 speeding yards per recreation.
Search for the Lobos to get the passing recreation going early and put this one away on the bottom with their three headed monster of rotating backs.
After and 0-2 begin to convention play, the Lobos have now gained 4 in a row, the longest lively profitable streak within the MW.
That streak will run to 5, and the Lobos will enter the final week of the common season with a watch in the direction of a shot on the convention title recreation.
In opposition to the unfold: New Mexico
Factors Whole: Beneath
Outright winner: New Mexico
Colorado State Rams at Boise State Broncos
Saturday, November 22
4:00 PM PT, FS1
Line: Boise State -16.5
Over/Beneath: 44.5
With Nevada coming away with a win final week, the longest shedding streak within the convention now resides in Fort Collins with Colorado State.
The Rams have misplaced their final 4 video games and have been outscored 121-46 throughout the shedding streak.
The Colorado State passing assault has struggled all season, however throughout the present 4 recreation slide, the working recreation has additionally been abysmal, going for simply 73.6 yards per recreation.
And in the newest loss to New Mexico, CSU was solely in a position to produce 13 yards on the bottom, averaging 0.5 yards per carry. The Rams did quit 4 sacks, however there was not a ton of success on the 21 different run performs both.
The offense may have their palms full with the Boise State protection this week. The Broncos restricted SDSU to only 17 passing yards final week; their lowest complete allowed since turning into an FBS member in 1996.
Boise State may take this recreation over on the defensive aspect of issues.
BSU’s offense will lean heavy on the bottom assault and produce in opposition to the Rams. The Broncos discovered average success on the bottom in opposition to SDSU final trip, whereas the passing recreation was not an enormous issue.
Max Cutforth was environment friendly, finishing 12 of his 18 passes and never giving the ball away. This could possibly be a chance for Boise State to open issues up within the QBs second begin.
The Broncos are experiencing a uncommon shedding streak of their very own, having dropped their final two video games. That slide won’t attain three.
Boise State will win going away.
In opposition to the unfold: Boise State
Factors Whole: Beneath
Outright winner: Boise State
Utah State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs
Saturday, November 22
7:30 PM PT, CBS Sports activities Community
Line: Fresno State -2.5
Over/Beneath: 51.5
The Bulldogs have labored their manner firmly into the combo within the MW hunt. At 4-2 in convention play, they appear to have discovered their stride once more with back-to-back wins.
Utah State enters the sport having fallen final week to UNLV final week in double OT, however is among the many slew of seven groups nonetheless with an opportunity at making the convention championship recreation.
For Fresno State, it is so simple as turnovers. The Bulldogs have been one of the opportunistic groups within the nation this season, forcing 17 turnovers on the season, adequate for twenty fourth within the nation.
The issue is the Fresno offense has been simply as charitable this season, giving the ball away 16 occasions. Within the seven wins they’re +8 within the turnover division however bind themselves –7 within the three losses.
The Aggies enter with 12 turnovers compelled on the 12 months in opposition to simply seven mishaps. If Carson Conklin makes some dangerous throws, the Aggies will make him pay.
The sophomore sign caller has performed a superb job of caring for the ball in his final two video games. In a pair of wins over Boise State and Wyoming, his completion share could not have been nice, however the interceptions had been at zero.
The Bulldogs have been on the great aspect of the scoreboard by a margin of 54-10 in these two wins mixed.
The Fresno State protection has been stifling all season lengthy, permitting simply 289.2 yards of offense per recreation to rank twelfth within the nation. Within the final two video games, they’ve lowered that complete to 188.5 whereas limiting the foes to 89.5 yards passing in every win.
That protection may have their palms full this week with a prolific Utah State offense. The Aggies offense, led by Bryson Barnes, has put up large numbers with loads of stability.
The QB is an enormous a part of that stability, rating twentieth within the nation in particular person complete offense, speeding for 531 yards, and throwing for two,352 on the season.
He has additionally taken care of the soccer with simply three interceptions thrown this season, and none over the past two video games.
The Bulldogs will use the house subject to make simply sufficient performs to get the win on this one.
In opposition to the unfold: Fresno State
Factors Whole: Under
Outright winner: Fresno State
San Jose State Spartans at San Diego State Aztecs
Saturday, November 22
7:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: San Diego State -11.5
Over/Beneath: 49.5
Okay, this one may get ugly in a rush. The Spartans are coming off a horrible exhibiting in opposition to Nevada whereas the Aztecs are enjoying the perfect soccer within the convention.
This San Diego State protection is each bit nearly as good as marketed however may get examined by the Spartans excessive octane passing assault.
SJSU has the fourth most prolific passing assault within the nation however had a nightmarish efficiency in opposition to the Wolf Pack final weekend. They had been restricted to 145 yards by way of the air final week and threw 4 interceptions.
Walker Eget was on a tremendous seven recreation stretch till the efficiency final week. I’d count on the QB to bounce again, however getting issues proper in opposition to the Aztecs is simpler stated than performed.
The Aztec protection is fourth within the nation in move effectivity protection and are permitting simply 12.5 factors per recreation. SDSU has produced 11 interceptions on the season with eight of them coming within the final 5 video games.
The Spartans haven’t run the ball nicely this season, and if San Diego State can key on the passing assault, it will likely be an extended day for the San Jose State.
SJSU has had a tough time stopping opponents, and the bottom assault of the Aztecs with Fortunate Sutton may gobble up yards in bunches.
The Aztecs win and restrict the Spartans’ offensive output.
In opposition to the unfold: San Diego State
Factors Whole: Beneath
Outright winner: San Diego State
writes about numerous matters for SuperWest sports activities, together with stats and data, school sports activities, and motorsports. He additionally based and runs the Sports activities and Leisure Analysis Heart (SERC).
