Quarterly Transatlantic Relations Evaluation
Experts assess the state of U.S.-European relations across political, security, and economic dimensions, including ties with key nations and the European Union. This edition covers overall trends and major issues, based on a survey conducted July 6-9, 2021. Analysis includes a timeline of events from April to June, a tracker of President Biden’s calls with European leaders, relevant data visuals, and priorities for the coming months.
Timeline of Key Events
April Highlights
Russian troops massed near Ukraine’s southeastern border as President Volodymyr Zelensky urged ceasefire talks as the quickest tactical step. Nineteen EU states pledged 2.8 million solidarity COVID-19 vaccines for Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, and Slovakia.
Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová formed a new government with For the People and Freedom and Solidarity parties, appointing former Finance Minister Eduard Heger as prime minister, resolving a crisis sparked by ex-Prime Minister Igor Matovič’s unilateral purchase of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine.
Austria, Czech Republic, and Slovenia opted out of the EU’s vaccine allocation plan; Czechia lost 140,000 doses but later received donations from Hungary (40,000), Austria (30,000), and Slovenia (10,000).
EU, France, Germany, UK, U.S., and Iran held Vienna talks to revive the JCPOA, forming two expert working groups. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen faced ‘sofagate’ during Ankara talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, later commenting, ‘It happened because I am a woman. Would this have happened if I had worn a suit and a tie?’
Bavaria’s Premier Markus Söder signed a provisional deal for 2.5 million Sputnik V doses pending EMA approval; Health Minister Jens Spahn initiated EU-wide talks.
G7 foreign ministers and EU High Representative urged Russia to end Ukraine provocations and implement Minsk agreements amid ongoing troop buildup. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced 500 additional troops in Germany, calling U.S.-German ties a top priority and praising Germany’s Indo-Pacific naval role.
President Biden set September 11 as the U.S. Afghanistan withdrawal deadline; NATO confirmed coordinated exit starting May 1, stating, ‘Our troops went into Afghanistan together, we have adjusted together, and now we are leaving together.’
Pfizer/BioNTech accelerated 50 million vaccine deliveries; von der Leyen launched talks for 1.8 billion more doses through 2023. Biden imposed Russia sanctions, expelled 10 diplomats over election interference, cyberespionage, and Crimea, targeting sovereign debt and tech firms.
Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and Interior Minister Jan Hamáček blamed Russian GRU for a 2014 explosion; Czechia expelled 18 Russians, prompting 20 Czech expulsions. Germany’s CDU chose Armin Laschet over Markus Söder for chancellor candidacy; Greens unified behind Annalena Baerbock.
Lithuania aided Belarusian relocations; Economy Minister Aušrinė Armonaitė noted an open-door policy aided Lithuania’s EU/NATO entry. Putin labeled Belarus sanctions a ‘coup attempt’ and warned of a ‘red line.’ Russia withdrew border troops; NATO demanded full Ukraine exit. Czechia expelled 63 more Russians; Slovakia and Germany backed Czechia.
Biden recognized the Armenian genocide, stating, ‘Over the decades Armenian immigrants have enriched the United States… We honor their story. We see that pain. We affirm the history… not to cast blame but to ensure that what happened is never repeated.’
Russia suspended Alexei Navalny’s organizations ahead of ‘extremist’ labeling. EU Parliament ratified EU-UK TCA, effective May 1 despite Northern Ireland issues. Germany’s court ruled the 2019 climate law unconstitutional for post-2031 gaps. Russia banned top EU officials in retaliation for Navalny and Chechnya sanctions.
May Highlights
CDU nominated Hans-Georg Maaßen for Thuringia despite controversy. Spain’s PP doubled Madrid seats under Isabel Díaz Ayuso’s ‘Freedom’ COVID stance. EU suspended China CAI ratification over parliament sanctions.
U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai backed COVID vaccine patent waivers; Macron supported, Merkel opposed, von der Leyen favored export lifts. UK ‘Super Thursday’ saw Labour dominate Wales, SNP/Greens majority in Scotland; Conservatives won Hartlepool and West Midlands.
EU Council approved Canada, Norway, U.S. in PESCO military mobility project. Porto summit committed to inequality reduction and gender gaps, despite Hungary/Poland pushback. EU launched Conference on the Future of Europe for citizen input.
Hungary blocked EU China/Hong Kong statement. EU court overturned Amazon’s €250 million tax order but upheld Engie’s €120 million. EU urged India travel ban pre-Delta variant. Arctic Council adopted strategic plan; Russia took chair.
EU opened borders to vaccinated travelers, eased internal rules. Belarus forced Ryanair landing, arresting Roman Protasevich; EU banned Belarus flights, later coordinated sanctions with U.S./UK. U.S.-EU China dialogue noted cooperation, competition, rivalry.
Macron acknowledged France’s Rwandan genocide role, seeking forgiveness. Germany recognized Namibia genocide (1904-1908), pledging €1.1 billion; Foreign Minister Heiko Maas cited historical responsibility.
June Highlights
Seven EU states issued digital COVID certificates. U.S. announced 25% tariffs on digital taxes (suspended 180 days). G7 backed 15% global minimum tax.
Moscow labeled Navalny groups ‘extremist.’ U.S.-UK issued New Atlantic Charter. U.S. allocated $150 million USAI for Ukraine. G7 launched B3W infrastructure partnership.
G7 committed to vaccines, recovery, democracy. NATO Brussels Communiqué enhanced resilience, climate focus. U.S.-EU suspended Boeing-Airbus dispute, targeting China practices. EU raised €20 billion NextGenerationEU bond.
Biden-Putin Geneva talks initiated Strategic Stability Dialogue; Biden warned on ransomware: ‘Responsible countries need to take action against criminals.’
EU extended asylum agency mandate. EU added U.S. to safe travel list. Coordinated Belarus sanctions hit 16 individuals, five entities, 46 officials. Putin op-ed urged Atlantic-Pacific security space.
UEFA rejected Munich rainbow lighting for Hungary LGBTQ protest. Russia claimed shots at HMS Defender; UK denied, citing exercise. ECDC warned Delta dominance; EMA approved Janssen vaccine.
Merkel suggested Putin summits; EU demanded constructive engagement. French regionals saw low turnout; LR/PS held regions, RN failed. Sweden’s Stefan Löfven resigned post-no-confidence.
Biden’s European Engagements
From April 1 to June 30, President Biden called Turkish President Erdoğan (April 23), German Chancellor Merkel (April 14), and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy twice (April 2, June 7). Tracking continues for France, Germany, Russia, Turkey, UK leaders.
COVID-19: Delta Variant and Vaccination Trends
The Delta variant (B.1.617.2), 40-60% more transmissible, dominated cases: 50% in India (mid-April), UK majority soon after, 98% Israel, 95% Russia, 84% Australia by Q2 end. High-vaccination nations like Israel (50%+ fully vaccinated) and UK (48%) still saw surges.
U.S. fully vaccinated rose from 17% (April 1) to 46% (June 30), but daily doses declined. EU states accelerated: Germany 5% to 37%, France 4% to 31%, Italy 6% to 31%. Hesitancy persists—half of French willing, quarter of Americans decline.
Macron mandated certificates for public spaces to curb waves; U.S. avoids passports fearing backlash. G7 outpaces G20; Africa under 5% vaccinated, heightening risks.
Expert Insights from Survey
Political U.S.-Europe ties trend positive (100%). Security (64%) and economic (57%) relations improve, though 36% neutral. Bilateral scores rose: France/Germany/UK near 7/10; Russia/Turkey edged up post-summits.
On Russia: 50% doubt stability realistic, 21% see it possible. Trumpism fears won’t deter transatlantic investments (47%). Biden’s China policy alignment too early (two-thirds). Germany elections, cyber defense, Delta response, COP26 loom.
Forward Outlook
June summits elevated transatlantic ambitions—from G7 tax deal to democracy protection. Putin troop buildup and ransomware challenged stability. Watch Germany’s post-Merkel shift, cyber rules post-attacks, COVID Delta management, unified climate stance for COP26.
