This text was initially printed at The Dialog. The publication contributed the article to House.com’s Skilled Voices: Op-Ed & Insights.
About 600 miles off the west coast of Africa, massive clusters of thunderstorms start organizing into tropical storms each hurricane season. They aren’t but in vary of Hurricane Hunter flights, so forecasters on the Nationwide Hurricane Heart depend on climate satellites to see down on these storms and beam again details about their location, construction and depth.
The satellite tv for pc knowledge helps meteorologists create climate forecasts that maintain planes and ships protected and put together nations for a possible hurricane landfall.
Now, meteorologists are about to lose entry to 3 of these satellites.
On June 25, 2025, the Trump administration issued a service change discover asserting that the Protection Meteorological Satellite tv for pc Program, DMSP, and the Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Heart would terminate knowledge assortment, processing and distribution of all DMSP knowledge no later than June 30. The knowledge termination was postponed till July 31 following a request from the top of NASA’s Earth Science Division.
I’m a meteorologist who research lightning in hurricanes and helps prepare different meteorologists to watch and forecast tropical cyclones. Right here is how meteorologists use the DMSP knowledge and why they’re involved about it going darkish.
Wanting contained in the clouds
At its most elementary, a climate satellite tv for pc is a high-resolution digital digicam in house that takes footage of clouds within the environment.
These are the satellite tv for pc pictures you see on most TV climate broadcasts. They let meteorologists see the situation and a few particulars of a hurricane’s construction, however solely throughout daytime.
Meteorologists can use infrared satellite tv for pc knowledge, just like a thermal imaging digicam, in any respect hours of the day to search out the coldest cloud-top temperatures, highlighting areas the place the best wind speeds and rainfall charges are discovered.
However whereas seen and infrared satellite tv for pc imagery are precious instruments for hurricane forecasters, they supply solely a primary image of the storm. It’s like a health care provider diagnosing a affected person after a visible examination and checking their temperature.
For extra correct diagnoses, meteorologists depend on the DMSP satellites.
The three satellites orbit Earth 14 instances per day with particular sensor microwave imager/sounder devices, or SSMIS. These let meteorologists look contained in the clouds, just like how an MRI in a hospital appears inside a human physique. With these devices, meteorologists can pinpoint the storm’s low-pressure middle and establish indicators of intensification.
Exactly finding the middle of a hurricane improves forecasts of the storm’s future monitor. This lets meteorologists produce extra correct hurricane watches, warnings and evacuations.
Hurricane monitor forecasts have improved by as much as 75% since 1990. Nonetheless, forecasting fast intensification continues to be troublesome, so the power of DMPS knowledge to establish indicators of intensification is vital.
About 80% of main hurricanes – these with wind speeds of not less than 111 mph (179 kilometers per hour) –quickly intensify sooner or later, ramping up the dangers they pose to individuals and property on land. Discovering out when storms are about to bear intensification permits meteorologists to warn the general public about these harmful hurricanes.
The place are the protection satellites going?
NOAA’s Workplace of Satellite tv for pc and Product Operations described the explanation for turning off the circulate of information as a must mitigate “a major cybersecurity danger.”
The three satellites have already operated for longer than deliberate.
The DMSP satellites have been launched between 1999 and 2009 and have been designed to final for 5 years. They’ve now been working for greater than 15 years. The USA House Drive just lately concluded that the DMSP satellites would attain the finish of their lives between 2023 and 2026, so the information would possible have gone darkish quickly.
Are there replacements for the DMSP satellites?
Three different satellites in orbit – NOAA-20, NOAA-21 and Suomi NPP – have a microwave instrument often called the superior know-how microwave sounder.
The superior know-how microwave sounder, or ATMS, can present knowledge just like the particular sensor microwave imager/sounder, or SSMIS, however at a decrease decision. It gives a extra washed-out view that’s much less helpful than the SSMIS for pinpointing a storm’s location or estimating its depth.
The U.S. House Drive started utilizing knowledge from a new protection meteorology satellite tv for pc, ML-1A, in late April 2025.
ML-1A is a microwave satellite tv for pc that can assist substitute a few of the DMSP satellites’ capabilities. Nonetheless, the federal government hasn’t introduced whether or not the ML-1A knowledge will likely be accessible to forecasters, together with these on the Nationwide Hurricane Heart.
Why are satellite tv for pc replacements final minute?
Satellite tv for pc applications are deliberate over a few years, even a long time, and are very costly. The present geostationary satellite tv for pc program launched its first satellite tv for pc in 2016 with plans to function till 2038. Improvement of the deliberate successor for GOES-R started in 2019.
Equally, plans for changing the DMSP satellites have been underway because the early 2000s.
Delays in growing the satellite tv for pc devices and funding cuts precipitated the Nationwide Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite tv for pc System and Protection Climate Satellite tv for pc System to be canceled in 2010 and 2012 earlier than any of their satellites could possibly be launched.
The 2026 NOAA finances request contains a rise in funding for the next-generation geostationary satellite tv for pc program, so it may be restructured to reuse spare components from present geostationary satellites. The finances additionally terminates contracts for ocean colour, atmospheric composition and superior lightning mapper devices.
A busy season stays
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is forecast to be above common, with six to 10 hurricanes. The most energetic a part of the season runs from the center of August to the center of October, after the DMSP satellite tv for pc knowledge is about to be turned off.
Hurricane forecasters will proceed to make use of all accessible instruments, together with satellite tv for pc, radar, climate balloon and dropsonde knowledge, to watch the tropics and subject hurricane forecasts. However the lack of satellite tv for pc knowledge, together with different cuts to knowledge, funding and staffing, may in the end put extra lives in danger.
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