Is Africa about to see the photo voltaic vitality growth it wants?

A file surge of photo voltaic panels flowing from China to international locations in Africa over the previous 12 months is an indication the continent is seeing a speedy build-out of renewable vitality. That would assist increase entry to low-cost, clear electrical energy and cut back reliance on imported fossil fuels.

“This isn’t a large explosion but in itself,” says Dave Jones at Ember, an vitality assume tank within the UK. “It’s the beginning of the takeoff.”

Jones and his colleagues analysed information on Chinese language photo voltaic panel exports since 2017. There’s some photo voltaic panel manufacturing capability in Africa – however as with a lot of the world, Chinese language imports make up practically the entire continent’s provide.

Between June 2024 and 2025, the researchers discovered exports to Africa surged 60 per cent in comparison with the earlier 12 months, amounting to only over 15 gigawatts of energy capability imported over that interval.

Not like an earlier surge in 2022 and 2023 that was pushed largely by imports to South Africa, this upward development was unfold throughout the continent – with 20 international locations seeing import data and 25 international locations importing greater than 100 megawatts price of panels. “It’s not being led by one or two international locations,” says Jones. “To me, that’s essentially the most unimaginable a part of the story.”

South Africa was nonetheless the chief, importing a few quarter of the overall. However different international locations additionally imported a raft of panels: Nigeria was second with 1721 megawatts, adopted by Algeria with 1199 megawatts, a few tenth of the overall. Over the previous two years, photo voltaic panel imports from China to international locations in Africa – excluding South Africa –have greater than tripled.

Assuming all of the panels imported over the previous 12 months had been put in, the researchers estimate 16 international locations imported sufficient to produce at the least 5 per cent of present electrical energy era; Sierra Leone might generate greater than 60 per cent of its present electrical energy with the panels it imported alone. These photo voltaic imports might start to offset far dearer fossil gas imports.

“Africa’s simply vitality transition is now not a future aspiration. It’s unfolding now,” says Amos Wemanya at Energy Shift Africa, an vitality assume tank in Kenya. “This transition has an enormous potential of reshaping how we construct resilience to the local weather chaos and drive growth.”

The surge comes partly from massive photo voltaic installations beneath building, however that isn’t the entire story. Jones says plenty of the imports look like going to small, distributed installations on rooftops or farms, as individuals search cheaper, extra dependable sources than nationwide grids. The same development is enjoying out in Pakistan, which noticed explosive development in rooftop photo voltaic over the previous few years pushed by the falling value of panels.

It is a hopeful development, given about 600 million individuals in Africa – practically half of the continent’s inhabitants – lack entry to dependable electrical energy. Nevertheless, photo voltaic growth on the continent nonetheless lags behind the remainder of the world. African international locations have struggled to draw funding in renewable vitality, receiving simply two per cent of the worldwide complete in current a long time, in response to the Worldwide Power Company. Over the previous 12 months, Pakistan alone noticed extra photo voltaic panel imports than all of Africa, regardless of having one-sixth the inhabitants.

“The actual problem earlier than us is to show this momentum into lasting good points by aligning financing, coverage and native industries to make sure clear vitality shouldn’t be solely out there, but in addition dependable, inexpensive and inclusive for all Africans,” says Wemanya.

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